Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025, citing strong performance in Q2 2023 and expected government support measures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2023, indicating robust economic performance [1] - The growth was supported by improved retail sales due to "trade-in" subsidies and steady export growth [1] Government Policy Expectations - The government is expected to implement the remaining parts of the annual broad fiscal plan in the second half of the year, including planned trade-in subsidies [1] - A reduction in policy interest rates by 20 to 30 basis points is anticipated in the second half of the year, along with additional measures to promote real estate inventory reduction [1] Future Projections - Additional policy support measures may depend on economic data, with new fiscal policies potentially being introduced by the end of Q3 or in Q4 [1] - Overall, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward due to strong export resilience, low base effects from trade-in subsidy policies, early issuance of government bonds, and planned policy support measures [1] Inflation and Currency Outlook - CPI pressure is expected to rise slightly in the second half of the year, while the RMB may strengthen in the short term [1] - External uncertainties could lead to the RMB/USD exchange rate reaching 7.1 to 7.2 by the end of 2025 [1]