Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Stock index and treasury bond volatility will increase. For stock index futures, the trading volume of the stock market has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, the number of falling stocks has increased significantly, and there may be a shift in hot sectors. It is recommended to hold a small position of long IF contracts. For treasury bond futures, the central bank has continued to conduct net repurchases in reverse repurchase operations, the domestic market interest rate has declined from a low level, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a small position of short treasury bond contracts [119][121][122] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 were in high-level oscillations [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10-year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 fell from a high level, and treasury bond futures declined [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 declined, while the trading volume of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 remained at a low level [20][24] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan [28] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Circulating Market Value**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 declined, and the turnover rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined significantly [31] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors were relatively consistent [37] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA of the energy, materials, industry, and telecommunications sectors was positive, while the full-cycle ALPHA of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors was negative [41] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In November, the net increase in listed companies was 5 [47] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not detailed in the report - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not detailed in the report - **2.5.1 Treasury Bond Trading - Positions**: Not detailed in the report - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest-to-Deliver Bond**: Not detailed in the report 3. Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not detailed in the report - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: The IRR of the next-quarter treasury bond futures (10-year) declined significantly, while the IRR of the next-quarter treasury bond futures (5-year) was stable [77][80] - **3.1.3 Interbank Repurchase Weighted Average Interest Rate**: The interbank repurchase weighted average interest rate declined slightly [84] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short-term Shibor declined slightly [87] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In October, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached -2.1% [91] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Activities**: In November, the PMI fell to 49.2, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [96] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, and the consumption data increased slightly [98] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence showed a downward trend [106] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6.2% [109] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: In October, newly added RMB loans were 220 billion yuan [112] 4. Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, the number of falling stocks has increased significantly, and there may be a shift in hot sectors. It is recommended to hold a small position of long IF contracts [121] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank has continued to conduct net repurchases in reverse repurchase operations, the domestic market interest rate has declined from a low level, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a small position of short treasury bond contracts [122]