新华财经北京11月21日电 人民银行21日开展3750亿元7天期逆回购操作，鉴于当日有2128亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放1622亿元。本周人 民银行共开展16760亿元7天期逆回购操作和8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，因当周有11220亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场合计实现净投放5540亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种全线下行。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌4.0BP，报1.3200%；7天Shibor下跌4.30BP，报1.4170%；14天Shibor 下跌2.4BP，报1.5220%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（11月21日） | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | O/N | 1.3200 | 4.40 | | 中 | 1W | 1.4170 | 4.30 | | 4 | 2W | 1.5220 | 2.40 | | 中 | 1M | 1.5190 | 0.10 | | 1 | 3M | 1.5780 | 0.10 | | 1 | 6M | 1.6200 | 0.00 | | | 9M | ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.485 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 81803 | 14928↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.935 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 71725 | 17153↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.462 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 38948 | 9953↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.870 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 94348 | -6605↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.21 | -0.02↓ T12-TL12价差 | -7.39 | 0.28↑ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.24 | -0.02↓ TF12-T12价差 | -2.55 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | -0.01 | -0.02↓ TS12-T12价差 | -6.02 | -0 ...

【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.06%报116.53，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报108.5，5年期主 力合约涨0.03%报105.92，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.49。 银行间主要利率债表现分化，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.35BP报2.136%，10年期国开 债"25国开15"收益率下行0.2BP报1.866%，5年期国开债"25国开08"收益率上行0.4BP报1.714%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.55%，报488.05点，成交金额682.42亿元。中能转债、立中转债、天赐转债、 国城转债、振华转债跌幅居前，分别跌14.87%、11.04%、10.39%、8.84%、8.37%。东时转债、微导转 债、润达转债、惠城转债、路维转债涨幅居前，分别涨14.69%、6.00%、5.09%、4.77%、4.76%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间11月17日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.63BP报3.608%，3年 期美债收益率涨0.28BP报3.611%，5年期美债收益率持平报3.728%，10年期美债收益率跌0.78BP报 4.1 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 14, with a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [1] - A total of 626.2 billion yuan was injected into the market during the week [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, but overnight repurchase rates have risen by over 5 basis points to around 1.37% as the tax period approaches [3] - The central bank's continuous net injections have effectively stabilized market sentiment, indicating a maintained liquidity stance [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with specific rates for government bonds and policy bank bonds varying [9] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained unchanged [12] Group 5: Economic Indicators - China's industrial output grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% previously, while retail sales increased by 2.9% [13] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with private investment down by 4.5% [13] Group 6: Real Estate Market - In October, housing prices in major cities showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.3% drop in new home prices [14] Group 7: Corporate Actions - Country Garden announced plans for overseas debt restructuring, aiming to reduce over $11 billion in debt with sufficient creditor support [15] Group 8: Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China released new regulations for interbank market brokerage services, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing internal controls and service agreements [15]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 195.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan after accounting for 65.5 billion yuan maturing that day [3][4]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a balanced improvement in funding conditions, with overnight repurchase rates dropping by 9 basis points to around 1.41%. The overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system also fell to 1.43% [5][6]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at approximately 1.63% [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.09%, 10-year by 0.02%, 5-year by 0.03%, and 2-year by 0.01% [11]. Government Procurement - The Ministry of Finance announced that the national government procurement scale for 2024 is projected to be 3,375.043 billion yuan, with goods, engineering, and services accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [12]. Global Macro Developments - Japan's Prime Minister is set to propose a significant economic stimulus plan, indicating potential substantial spending to support the economy [14]. - South Korea's M2 money supply reached 4,430.5 trillion won (approximately 3.02 trillion USD) in September, marking a 0.7% month-on-month increase and an 8.5% year-on-year surge [14]. Bond Issuance Events - The China Development Bank plans to issue up to 19 billion yuan in three phases of fixed-rate bonds on November 13 [16]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will auction 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds on November 19 [16]. Negative Events in Bond Market - Several companies, including Aerospace Hongtu and Zhejiang Yitian, have seen downgrades in their credit ratings or outlooks, indicating potential risks in the bond market [17]. Non-Standard Asset Risks - Various non-standard assets have been flagged for risk, including trust plans and private equity funds, highlighting ongoing concerns in the investment landscape [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic fundamentals' continuous repair and the implementation of broad fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.475，跌0.01%，成交量52193，减少6637；TF主力收盘价105.935，持平，成交量48332，减少777；TS主力收盘价102.462，持平，成交量28422，增加3493；TL主力收盘价116.300，持平，成交量73470，减少22627 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，增加0.00；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.83，减少0.03；T2512 - 2603价差0.23，增加0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.54，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.02；TS2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.00；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.01，持平；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.47，减少0.00 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量225549，减少5844；T前20名多头234412，减少2128；T前20名空头255127，减少2085；T前20名净空仓20715，增加43；TF主力持仓量131787，减少6611；TF前20名多头131668，减少3580；TF前20名空头151475，减少5572；TF前20名净空仓19807，减少1992；TS主力持仓量65702，减少1663；TS前20名多头67457，增加184；TS前20名空头78722，增加845；TS前20名净空仓11265，增加661；TL主力持仓量125664，减少3486；TL前20名多头135731，减少1371；TL前20名空头155816，减少1648；TL前20名净空仓20085，减少277 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.5601，涨0.0330；250018.IB(4y）净价99.0955，持平；250003.IB(4y）净价99.6141，涨0.0104；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨0.0184；220016.IB(1.7y)净价101.8925，涨0.0140；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0447，涨0.0078 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 210005.IB(17y) 1y收益率1.3950，涨0.3342；210014.IB(18y) 3y收益率1.4375，跌0.0022；5y收益率1.5800，跌0.25bp；7y收益率1.6985，涨3.85bp；10y收益率1.8050，跌0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4860，涨3.60bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.5080，涨2.90bp；银质押7天利率1.5100，涨1.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.5010，涨2.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4500，跌5.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.5180，涨2.60bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y利率3.00，持平；5y利率3.5，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4038亿，到期规模1175亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放2863亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 截至10月29日，5000亿新型政策性金融工具资金全部投放完毕，支持重点领域民间投资项目；国务院办公厅印发促进民间投资发展措施；美国国会参议院就结束政府“停摆”达成一致，政府有望尽快重启 [2] 3.10 Market Situation - 周二国债现券收益率涨跌不一，国债期货多数持平，DR007加权利率回升至1.51%附近震荡；国内10月CPI同比小幅回升，核心CPI明显改善，PPI降幅连续第3个月收窄，出口同比增速意外转负；海外美国10月ISM服务业PMI创8个月新高，制造业PMI大幅不及预期，ADP就业新增4.2万人，劳动力市场下行风险缓和但整体需求放缓 [2] 3.11 Strategy - 10月央行国债买卖操作审慎但释放宽松信号；经济基本面修复和宽财政政策需低利率环境配合；市场预期央行购债以中短期限为主，短端利率有望下行并带动长端利率走低，需警惕风险偏好回升对长端利率的压制；操作上建议每逢调整轻仓试多 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for treasury bond futures is likely to be volatile with a slight bullish bias [1][2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market, and the 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time. Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly lower, with minor declines in the morning session and recoveries in the afternoon, showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, and the 5 - year TF2512 and 2 - year TS2512 both fell 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward continuously, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a negative line. The trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.13 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 475.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, up from 1.42% in the previous trading day [1] - On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 0.90, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.45 basis points to 1.42%, 1.58%, 1.80%, and 2.14% respectively [1] - PBoC Deputy Governor Lu Lei stated on November 4 that the central bank will adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy support according to the economic and financial situation at home and abroad, implement various monetary policy tools, and release policy effects. This year, the central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The central bank's 10 - month liquidity injection data shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The central bank also announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on November 5 [1] Market Logic - The PMI in October was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger decline than seasonal factors due to the double - holiday and external factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, the construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion. The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market [2] - On October 27, the central bank governor stated that the bond market is operating well, and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations directly boosted the bond market last week. The 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time [2] - With the overnight decline in US stocks and the narrow - range horizontal fluctuation of treasury bond futures on Tuesday, treasury bond futures may be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continuation of monetary policy measures to support liquidity management [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC conducted a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This operation is a continuation of the 700 billion yuan 3-month reverse repos maturing in November, indicating a rollover of liquidity support [1] - The PBOC has introduced the buyout reverse repo tool in October 2024 to enhance liquidity management within a year [1] Group 2: Market Data - In October 2023, the PBOC conducted reverse repos amounting to 17 trillion yuan, with 13 trillion yuan being withdrawn, resulting in a net injection of 4 trillion yuan [1] - Additionally, on the same day, the PBOC executed a 655 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [1]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations involving the buying and selling of government bonds [1] - In October 2025, the PBOC's open market operations resulted in a net injection of 20 billion RMB through government bond purchases [1] Regulatory Focus - The PBOC will continue to crack down on speculation in digital currencies to maintain financial order [1] - The PBOC is closely monitoring the development of stablecoins outside of China [1]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 3, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 783 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 3,373 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,590 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The interbank market showed ample liquidity, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions slightly decreasing and stabilizing around 1.31% [2] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained around 1.3%, with supply near 1 trillion yuan; non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds fell to 1.42%-1.43% [2] - Market liquidity is generally abundant, with no significant disturbance factors expected in the short term, and institutions are willing to lend, keeping rates low [2] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.63%, unchanged from the previous day [3] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yield rates for major interbank bonds are as follows: - 1-year government bonds at 1.3850% - 3-year government bonds at 1.3775% - 10-year government bonds at 1.5075% [9] Group 5: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.11%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.01% [12] Group 6: Recent Debt Market Developments - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region plans to establish a "Bond Connect" with Switzerland and the UAE [16] - The Agricultural Development Bank will auction up to 6 billion yuan in two phases of financial bonds on November 4 [16] - Chongqing will issue 14.988 billion yuan in four phases of new special bonds on November 10 [16]