国债期货日报 | 2026-03-25 TACO预期升温，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏 观政策环境；2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息 的空间；2026年政府工作报告提到赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元。一般公共预算支出规模将首次 达到30万亿元、比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元。（2）通胀：2月CPI同比上升1.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：1-2月财政运行平稳开局，一般公共预算收入同比增长0.7%、支出同比增长3.6%，财政前置发 力特征明显。收入端企业相关税收表现好于居民部门，增值税增长4.7%，但消费税、个人所得税回落，反映居民 消费偏弱；政府性基金收入受土地出让拖累同比下降16%，支出端因专项债发行加快同比增长16%。整体看，经济 仍呈"供强需弱"格局，地产与消费修复基础尚不牢固。对债市而言， ...

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from early debt resolution last year [6][43]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released China's financial data for February 2026, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while the stock of social financing remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [5][10]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate medium and long-term loans increased by 350 billion yuan [8][45]. - Social financing saw a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan in February, primarily driven by a 195.6 billion yuan increase in RMB loans, while government bonds decreased by 290.3 billion yuan due to a high base effect from the same period in 2025 [16][28]. - M1 improved, likely due to the impact of the Spring Festival on household demand deposits, with a notable increase in consumption during the holiday period further amplifying this effect. The growth in household demand deposits is expected to be a key driver for M1 improvement [18][44]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Future monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [7][24]. Regular Monitoring - In February, the structure of deposits showed that household deposits increased by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.76 trillion yuan and fiscal deposits decreased by 1.6076 trillion yuan [34][45]. - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0%, indicating a steady financial environment supported by increased fiscal spending and a significant drop in fiscal deposits [34][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" was officially released on March 13, 2026, with 18 chapters, 16 major strategic tasks, and 109 major projects focusing on people's well - being [2] - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing 9% year - on - year and the social financing scale stock growing 8.2% year - on - year in February [2] - China has launched the release of over 10 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves, and about 980,000 tons of fertilizers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, with a possible 30% - 50% reduction in global fertilizer raw material supply if shipping disruptions become normal [2] - The US military launched an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, but Iran's oil facilities are intact and exports are normal. Iran threatens to retaliate if its facilities are attacked [3] - The US Treasury temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil on March 12, and about 124 million barrels of Russian oil are at 30 sea locations. Thailand and Sri Lanka have expressed interest in buying Russian oil [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved by the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 12 and officially released on March 13 [2] - In the first two months, RMB loans and social financing scale increased, and M2 and social financing scale stock had year - on - year growth. Loan interest rates in February were about 3.1% [2] - China released fertilizer reserves, and there are potential risks in global fertilizer supply [2] - The US military attacked Iran's oil export hub, and Iran threatened retaliation [3] - The US relaxed sanctions on Russian oil, and some countries expressed interest in buying Russian oil [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, lithium carbonate, bottle chips, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials 2.31%, precious metals 29.44%, oilseeds 8.37%, soft commodities 2.41%, non - ferrous metals 23.24%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 8.60%, energy 7.71%, chemicals 14.40%, grains 0.97%, agricultural and sideline products 2.54% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.82 | - 1.62 | 3.19 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.50 | - 2.72 | - 2.45 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.39 | - 0.88 | 0.85 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.43 | - 4.84 | 10.37 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.61 | - 3.59 | - 3.12 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.98 | - 4.37 | - 0.64 | | | German DAX | - 0.60 | - 7.27 | - 4.26 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.16 | - 8.55 | 6.91 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.43 | - 5.95 | 3.32 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.07 | - 0.16 | 0.33 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.00 | - 0.04 | 0.19 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.21 | 16.99 | 22.43 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 3.78 | 47.78 | 72.78 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.18 | - 4.93 | 16.21 | | | LME Copper | - 2.03 | - 4.22 | 1.91 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 2.47 | - 7.69 | 12.10 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.77 | 2.93 | 2.27 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 0.37 | 36.91 | 81.87 | [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report shows the trends of major commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., and also includes the relationships like gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, and risk premiums of different stock indices [7]

Loan and Financing Data - In February 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 900 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion[1] - New social financing in February was 2.38 trillion, an increase of 146.9 billion year-on-year[7] - Corporate loans increased significantly by 450 billion, driven by investment policies and high export growth[5] Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - As of the end of February, M2 growth rate was 9.0%, remaining at a high level compared to the past two years[8] - M1 growth rate rose to 5.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The increase in M2 was supported by a significant rise in fiscal spending, with fiscal deposits decreasing by approximately 1.6 trillion[8] Economic Policy and Outlook - The government work report emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with expected interest rate cuts of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points throughout the year[2] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, alongside other liquidity injection measures[11] - Overall, inflation is projected to remain low in 2026, allowing for sufficient adjustment space in monetary policy[12]

Financing Demand - In February, new social financing (社融) reached 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 1.84 trillion yuan[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 848.4 billion yuan, up 195.6 billion yuan from the previous year, but down 4.05 trillion yuan from January[3] - The government bond financing was weak, with a net increase of only 1.4 trillion yuan in February[3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth was 9.0% year-on-year, consistent with January's growth rate, while M1 increased by 5.9%, up 1.0 percentage points from January[3] - M0 saw a significant increase of 14.1% year-on-year, rising by 11.4 percentage points from January[3] - The central bank injected 779.5 billion yuan into the market in February[3] Deposit Trends - February saw a total of 1.17 trillion yuan in new deposits, down 3.25 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The increase in deposits was primarily driven by a rise in household deposits, which increased by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - Corporate deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan compared to the previous year[3] Loan Dynamics - Financial institutions issued 900 billion yuan in new loans in February, with corporate loans accounting for 1.49 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand[3] - However, household loans were weak, with a decrease of 650.7 billion yuan in new household loans compared to the previous year[3] - The government aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices[3]

事件： 3月13日，央行公布2026年2月中国金融数据， 信贷余额同比增速下行0.1个百分点6.0%，社融存 量同比持平于8.2%，M1同比上行1.0个百分点至5.9%。 核心观点：企业中 长贷 的可持续性仍有待观察 2月企业中长期贷款同比改善，或源于两大因素： 一是1月信贷投放节奏更为均衡；二是去年初化债靠前 发力形成的低基数效应。当月新增信贷同比少增1100亿元，主要受居民贷款、非银贷款同比少增拖累， 企业中长期贷款则同比多增3500亿元。后续企业中长期贷款增长的可持续性，仍需观察需求修复斜率与 上游成本上升速率。 社融开年连续两个月同比多增，支撑其增长的核心项由1月的政府债券切换为2月的人民币贷款。 2月社 融同比多增1461亿元，其中人民币贷款同比多增1956亿元，为主要拉动项。1月支撑社融的政府债券2月 同比少增2903亿元，主要受2025年同期高基数影响。财政预算中，2026年政府债净融资增长有限，后续 其对社融增速的支持力度或将趋弱。 2月M1改善，或源于春节错位下居民活期存款的增长，而春节消费超预期释放，进一步放大该效应。 从 历史数据看，春节月份居民活期存款易走高，或与表外资产回表、企业发放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of corporate medium and long-term loans remains to be observed, with improvements in February attributed to a more balanced credit issuance rhythm in January and a low base effect from last year [3][41]. Financial Data Summary - On March 13, the central bank released February 2026 financial data, showing a year-on-year decline in credit balance growth by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%, while social financing stock remained flat at 8.2%, and M1 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9% [2][8]. - In February, new credit totaled 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans down by 261.6 billion yuan and non-bank loans down by 294.9 billion yuan. In contrast, corporate loans increased by 450 billion yuan, with medium and long-term loans up by 350 billion yuan [5][43]. - Social financing in February increased by 23,792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,461 billion yuan, primarily driven by a 1,956 billion yuan increase in RMB loans [5][26]. - M2 growth remained stable at 9.0%, while new M1 rose by 1.0 percentage points to 5.9%. The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year increase of 25,000 billion yuan in household deposits, while corporate deposits decreased by 17,605 billion yuan [5][32]. Future Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to become more flexible and efficient, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in response to economic conditions. The government work report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and optimize structural tools [4][22]. - The fluctuations in commodity prices have not yet fully manifested in their impact on the economy, suggesting that policy measures may be adjusted to support stable macroeconomic operations [4][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that corporate medium and long-term loans are the main contributors to credit growth, with a seasonal decline in loan issuance in February but a narrowing of the year-on-year decrease, primarily driven by the corporate sector [2][4][7] - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, supported mainly by RMB loans and undiscounted acceptances [4][8] - The government bond net financing reached 1.4 trillion yuan in February, but showed a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift from growth to decline in direct financing [4][8] Group 2 - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 9% in February, supported by a significant net financing from government bonds and a strong RMB, which contributed to domestic liquidity [3][8] - The increase in corporate loans was substantial, with corporate medium and long-term loans rising by 890 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 350 billion yuan [7][8] - The M1 growth rate rebounded to 5.9%, indicating improved liquidity conditions, while the difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.1% [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increase in social financing (社融) in February, which amounted to 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.2% [1][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In February, social financing increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 8.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Notably, the increase in entity credit and non-discounted bank acceptance bills was significant, while government bonds saw a year-on-year decrease [1][6]. - Entity credit rose by 850 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 197.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 5.75 trillion yuan for January-February, comparable to the same period in 2023-2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Financing Environment - The improvement in demand was primarily observed in the corporate sector, with short-term loans increasing by 270 billion yuan and long-term loans by 350 billion yuan. This was influenced by the central bank's requirement for "balanced credit allocation" [2][10]. - The financing environment for enterprises was supported by rising industrial prices, particularly in the non-ferrous and AI sectors, which improved profit expectations and led to increased inventory and capital expenditure [2][10]. - In contrast, household financing remained weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 195.2 billion yuan and long-term loans by 66.5 billion yuan, likely due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting consumption patterns [2][11]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in February, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds this year is similar to that of 2025, shifting from a supportive to a neutral impact on social financing [3][11]. - Corporate bonds saw an increase of 152.1 billion yuan in February, although this was a year-on-year decrease of 18.1 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced financing in the real estate and construction sectors [3][12]. Group 4: Monetary Aggregates - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 5.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, influenced by a low base effect and increased financing from the real sector [4][13]. - M2's year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 9.0%. An analysis of January-February data showed a decrease in household deposits and loans, while non-bank deposits increased, indicating a trend towards deleveraging and a shift towards equity assets [4][13]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data Insights - Cumulatively, social financing increased by over 310 billion yuan year-on-year for January-February, with M1 and M2 growth rates improving, indicating overall liquidity remains relatively ample [5][14]. - The strong performance of equity assets in January-February was supported by significant exports and rising industrial prices, although geopolitical factors and rising oil prices in March may alter this dynamic [5][14].

3月13日，中国人民银行发布2026年2月金融数据。 数据显示，M2和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币 金融环境。2026年2月末社会融资规模存量为451.4万亿元，同比增长8.2%，增速与上年同期 持平。2026年前两个月社会融资规模增量累计为9.6万亿元，比上年同期多3162亿元。 货币供应方面，今年2月末，广义货币(M2)余额349.22万亿元，同比增长9.0%，增速与上月持 平，比上年同期高2.0个百分点。狭义货币(M1)余额115.93万亿元，同比增长5.9%。流通中货 币(M0)余额15.14万亿元，同比增长14.1%。前两个月净投放现金1.05万亿元。 实体融资需求进一步释放 业内专家认为，3月以来企业陆续进入节后开工状态，融资需求加快显现，叠加两会后各项政 策密集细化落地，"十五五"重大工程项目加速落地开工，预计将带动配套融资需求稳步释放， 金融总量有望延续合理增长态势。 东北证券宏观首席分析师廖博告诉记者："2月社融的主要支撑来自政府部门融资需求，这同时 也体现了财政政策发力前置。结合今年1月央行的结构性降息对信贷需求的边际拉动作用来 看，货币与财政政策的协 ...