The great debasement trade.2020 COVID print lit the fuse & Trump has poured the gasoline.M2 is up only.Gold & Bitcoin are repricing.Meanwhile, deregulation of the entire digital asset industry.Consumer apps are hitting mainstream adoption.Majors look ready for new blue sky highs.What’s next? Probably a lot of volatility.Up & down.Long term trend is up & to the right. See you on the other side…Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes):The new TradFi meta narrative is the "debasement trade". It took them almost twenty year ...

先说说M2为啥这么重要。它不像GDP那么直观，但它是经济血液里的氧气。钱多了，本来该刺激投资和消费，拉动增长。 可如果钱多得过火，就容易推高物价，让大家手里的钱买不到原来那么多东西。回顾过去，1956年M2才175亿，2013年才破100万亿，用了57年。2020年破 200万亿，只用了不到7年。 2023年9月是289.67万亿，年底就接近300万亿，这增长速度，确实让不少人觉得央行印钞机没停过。 央行解释说，这是为了稳增长，支持信贷扩张和投资需求。可问题在于，这些钱没均匀流到老百姓手里，很多沉淀在银行体系或大项目里，导致实体经济感 受不到多少热乎气。 专家们一看这情况，就开始呼吁大家多花钱。他们的逻辑挺简单：钱多会贬值，存着不动等于亏本，花出去买东西或服务，能刺激需求，带动产业链转起 来。 比方说，买家电或旅游，能拉动相关产业就业，还能降低居民储蓄率。现在中国储蓄率高得吓人，居民存款过去7年翻倍，M2从2020年的200万亿涨到现在 的300多万亿，可消费却没跟上。 专家觉得，消费比重上去了，经济增长就更健康。通胀压力下，花钱买耐用消费品，能保值。像黄金或房产，以前就是抗通胀的工具。 现在专家还建议多样化 ...

工业增加值：2025年8月，中国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，较7月放缓0.5个百分点，累计 增长6.2%，较7月放缓0.1个百分点。这一增速主要受夏季高温加剧供应链中断、出口订单季节性波动及 房地产投资持续低迷拖累，但较7月放缓幅度收窄，显示政策传导效应渐显。制造业和高技术产业表现 更稳，凸显中国工业向高质量转型的韧性。然而，全球需求不确定性和极端天气对后续增长构成更大制 约。 （原标题：未名宏观｜2025年8月经济数据点评：重"质"稳"量"，经济阶段性回调） 要点： 内容提要 "稳中求进"总基调不变，政策调整信号释放，重"质"稳"量"，经济下行压力阶段性增加。"反内卷"或成 为影响下半年经济走势的主要因素，短期内经济下行压力存在，但长期利好高质量发展。8月，无论是 供给端还是需求端均有不同程度的回调，货币供应稳健扩张，狭义货币M1同比有所上升，反映出企业 活期存款增长加速，经济活跃度有所提升。 供给端 需求端 消费方面：2025年8月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，较前月下降0.3个百分点，政策调整，消费 额增速阶段性回调。居民收入增速依然相对不高，消费额增速难以长期可持续大幅上涨。8月全 ...

Bitcoin has not tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag since early May.Gold has followed global M2 with near 1:1 sensitivity.A tale of cross-asset correlations amidst secular dollar weakness and geopolitical risk.Gold is high beta risk-off, BTC is high beta risk-on. https://t.co/zUmncKyXeA ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-09-24 资金面保持宽松，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。（2）通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强，企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元，社融增量累计26.56万亿元，政府债券融资占比高企，反映企 业中长期融资需求仍偏弱。存款同比增长8.6%，信贷和存款增速均小幅回落，显示银行资产扩张动力减弱，经济 整体处于弱复苏阶段。（4）央行：2025-09-23，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了276 ...

Economic Overview - The economy is in a critical phase of bottoming out and recovery, with some indicators showing marginal improvement, but still facing multiple challenges [1] - Consumer internal momentum is weak, with household credit affected and housing prices expected to face significant downward pressure in Q4 [1] - Key factors for financial data improvement include corporate profitability and fiscal stimulus [1] CPI Analysis - August CPI year-on-year growth decreased to -0.4%, down from 0%, with a month-on-month change remaining flat [4] - Pork prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while egg prices increased by 1.5%, below the seasonal average [4] - Future CPI trends will depend on pork price stability, overall food price stability, supply-demand challenges, and weak consumer internal momentum [4] PPI Insights - August PPI year-on-year growth improved to -2.9% from -3.6%, marking the highest level since May [7] - The month-on-month PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month decline, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in some sectors [7][8] - Expectations for PPI in October suggest a narrowing decline to -2.6%, with potential recovery in Q4 [8] PMI Developments - August manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating slight recovery in both supply and demand sides [11] - New orders and export orders showed minor increases, but overall demand recovery remains weak [11] - Production activities are expanding, with positive business expectations continuing [11] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% [15] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with signs of improvement in new home sales [15] - Manufacturing investment is constrained by tariff disruptions and internal competition policies [15] Credit and Financial Data - New credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a significant increase from a negative value in the previous month [18] - Corporate loans showed divergence, with short-term loans increasing significantly [18] - Overall financial data reflects a pattern of government debt supply reduction and insufficient credit demand [18] M2 Growth - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the M2-M1 spread [21] - Government debt financing has been a key factor in maintaining M2 and social financing growth [21] - Future M2 growth may face challenges due to reduced government debt financing and insufficient loan demand [21]

Financing Data - In August 2025, the social financing scale increased by 25,668 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,655 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] - Cumulative social financing for the first eight months of 2025 reached 265,575 billion yuan, an increase of 46,567 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong overall performance supported by government bond issuance[2] - New bills increased by 1,973 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1,322 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of 3,611 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in short-term financing demand from the real economy[2] Credit and Loan Data - New RMB loans in August amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, an increase of 6,400 billion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - Short-term loans for enterprises showed significant improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 2,600 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 billion yuan, indicating heightened business activity[3] - Resident short-term loans increased by 3932 billion yuan month-on-month, driven by seasonal consumption demand and supportive consumption policies[3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8% in August, supported by fiscal policy and reasonable growth in social financing and loans[3] - M1 growth rate increased to 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting improved business activity and increased liquidity for enterprises[3] - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 2.8%, indicating enhanced liquidity and operational efficiency among enterprises[3] Deposit Trends - Household deposits decreased by 600 billion yuan year-on-year in August, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 5,500 billion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" towards non-bank sectors[5] - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue due to declining deposit interest rates and attractive returns in the capital market, with A-share new account openings reaching 2.65 million in August, a 35% month-on-month increase[5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The most significant change in the August financial data is the acceleration of "deposit migration," with household deposits declining for two consecutive months beyond seasonal trends, while non-bank deposits have seen a substantial increase [2][8][53]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, household deposits decreased by 6000 million year-on-year, with a net increase of only 1100 million, marking two consecutive months of negative growth compared to seasonal averages, a first for 2025 [2][5][8]. - Non-bank deposits reached a record high for the same period, with an increase of 11800 million, indicating a shift in asset structure among residents [2][5][8]. - The relationship between household and non-bank deposits reflects a "seesaw" effect closely tied to capital market performance, suggesting early signs of changes in residents' asset allocation [2][8][53]. Group 2: Loan Trends - Household loans remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 1597 million, consistent with low consumer confidence levels [2][14][53]. - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy only started in September, meaning August data does not reflect its impact [2][14][53]. - The employment outlook is uncertain, as indicated by the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for hiring expectations, which fell to 44.07 in August, the lowest since March 2020 [2][14][53]. Group 3: Corporate Loan Dynamics - In August, the growth rate of medium and long-term corporate loans showed signs of stabilization, while short-term loans and bill financing decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 9.7% [3][20][54]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rebounded to -2.9% year-on-year, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for business expectations rose from 52.6 to 53.7, indicating a potential shift in corporate investment attitudes from cautious to watchful [3][20][54]. Group 4: Social Financing and Policy Outlook - The growth rate of social financing stock declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][26][54]. - From January to July 2025, social financing stock growth accelerated from 8.0% to 9.0%, largely driven by front-loaded government bond financing, which totaled an additional 4.8 trillion [3][26][54]. - Future fiscal and monetary policy coordination may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing, with new subsidy policies and innovative financial tools expected to enhance credit and social capital mobilization [3][29][54]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data - In August, new credit totaled 5900 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3100 million, primarily from the corporate sector [4][36][56]. - The total social financing in August was 25700 million, down 4623 million year-on-year, mainly due to government bonds [4][36][56]. - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8%, while the new M1 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6% [5][43][57].

Group 1 - The narrow money supply M1 has shown a significant recovery in 2023, with a balance of 111.23 trillion yuan at the end of August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, up from 5.6% in July and 2.3% in June [2] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates has continued to narrow, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference decreasing from -13.4% at the beginning of the year to -2.8% in August, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in liquidity [2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in corporate demand deposits, suggesting that businesses are more confident in future investments and operations, which is a positive sign for economic activity [2] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2023, the total increase in RMB deposits was 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits increasing by 610.6 billion yuan, contrasting sharply with a decrease of 2.88 trillion yuan in the same period of 2022 [3] - The significant change in non-financial corporate deposits, which saw an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, is a notable indicator of improved business sentiment [3] - The increase in deposits is also reflected in the rise of non-bank financial institution deposits, which grew by 2.3 trillion yuan this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The average interest rate for corporate deposits has decreased, with a cumulative decline of 26 basis points, which has influenced corporate deposit behavior [4] - Government financing has increased significantly, with corporate bond balances reaching 33.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and government bonds increasing by 21.1% [4] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated since May, aimed at replacing hidden debts and supporting government investment projects, which has positively impacted corporate cash flow [4] Group 4 - The increase in corporate demand deposits is driven by lower fixed deposit rates and expanded government financing, which has improved corporate cash flow and investment confidence [5] - The balance of corporate demand deposits rose to 207.68 billion yuan in July 2024, an increase of 8.49 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant shift in corporate deposit behavior [5] - The sustainability of the M1 growth rate remains to be observed, as it heavily relies on government financing and its ability to stimulate corporate investment and consumer spending [5]

Monetary Policy and Financial Statistics - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The total social financing stock was 433.66 trillion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] - The balance of RMB loans stood at 269.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1] - The government bond net financing scale for the first eight months of the year was 1.027 trillion yuan, an increase of 463 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Credit and Loan Growth - RMB loans increased by 1.346 trillion yuan in the first eight months, indicating strong support for the real economy [2] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has accelerated, providing significant funding support for resolving hidden debts [2] - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for the impact of replacing local government hidden debts, was estimated to be around 7.8% in August [2] Economic Activity and Sector Performance - The proportion of direct financing through corporate bonds, government bonds, and non-financial corporate domestic stock financing has steadily increased from 26.7% at the end of 2018 to 31.6% by the end of August 2025 [3] - Manufacturing loans have seen a significant increase, with new manufacturing loans accounting for 53% of new corporate loans in the first eight months, a rise of 33 percentage points from the previous year [3] - High demand for financing has been noted in sectors such as textiles, specialized equipment, and computer communications, driven by seasonal demand and market expansion efforts [4] Consumer Loans and Housing Market - Personal loan growth has been boosted by traditional summer consumption peaks and policies promoting consumption [4] - Recent real estate regulatory policies in major cities have aimed to better meet diverse housing needs, contributing to increased loan demand [4] Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - Since 2020, the People's Bank of China has cut policy rates nine times, leading to a decrease in loan rates for both enterprises and personal housing loans [5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain continuity and stability, with a supportive monetary policy aiding the real economy [5] - Long-term economic structural transformation and industrial upgrading are anticipated to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship in the economy [5]