1月经济前瞻：开年动能仍待修复 1月物价预测如何？ 一、1月CPI同比增速0.6%（前值0.8%），对应1月环比0.4%（前值0.2%） 二、2026年有25-50BP降准、10BP降息的总量性宽松操作，节奏上预计小步慢跑，频度不会太高 三、结构性政策工具也将持续发力，同步强化信贷的结构性引导，扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域是重 点支持方向 1月经济前瞻：开年动能仍待修复 1月物价预测如何？ 一、1月CPI同比增速0.6%（前值0.8%），对应1月环比0.4%（前值0.2%） 二、工业品价格方面，1月PPI同比增速为-1.8%（前值-1.9%），对应环比-0.3%（前值0.2%） 1月金融预测如何？ 一、1月人民币贷款新增5万亿元，同比少增1300亿元，对应增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至6.2% 二、1月社融新增6.9万亿，同比少增约980亿元，增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至8.1% 三、1月M2增速为8.5%，持平上月；1月M1增速为2.2%，前值为3.8%，回落1.6个百分点 后续货币政策预测如何？ 一、经济增长和促进物价合理回升将是2026年货币政策重要考量贯穿全年，同时也会兼顾金融稳定 二、工业 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-03 PMI超预期，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2 ...

研究所 炒作抑制 股指震荡债回升 ----国信期货金融周报 2026-2-2 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 研究所 上证50、沪深 300高位震荡。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 中证500高位回 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 落。 国债期货小幅反 弹。 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 上证50成交额、 沪深300成交额 上升。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500成交额， 中证1000成交额上 升。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1.2融 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复，国债期货大多收涨 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

2025年12月经济数据显示：CPI同比增速由0.7%上升至0.8%；PPI从-2.2%上升至-1.9%；制造业PMI由49.2%上升至50.1%；新增人民币贷款9100亿元；M2同 比增速上升为8.5%。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据预测。 CPI：通胀水平有望持续回升 李晓丹 实习生 王欣 彭萧州/文 有色金属价格逆势大涨、制造业PMI重返扩张区间、企业中长期贷款增长，2025年的宏观数据显出经济保持平稳修复。值得 关注的是，中小企业景气仍在收缩区间，需要为中小企业发展进一步营造有利环境。同时，房地产市场的低迷对价格和投资仍有较大拖累。 CPI公布值（同比）：0.8% 前值：0.7% CPI预测值（同比）：0.8% 西部证券（002673）首席宏观分析师边泉水点评：12月食品CPI环比增长0.3%，连续五个月正增长；同比增长1.1%，涨幅扩大。其中，猪肉价格仍在下跌， 12月环比下跌1.7%，同比下降14.6%；鲜菜价格环比增长0.8%，同比涨幅扩大至18.2%。 从核心CPI来看，12月核心CPI环比增长0.2%，持平于去年同期；同比增长 ...

A:了解M1和M2，首先要知道什么是货币供应量。货币供应量是某一时点承担流通和支付手段的金融工 具的总和，是金融统计和分析的重要指标。我国将货币供应量分为M0、M1、M2。 最新金融数据显示，2025年12月末，广义货币（M2）余额340.29万亿元，同比增长8.5%；狭义货币 （M1）余额115.51万亿元，同比增长3.8%。M2与M1增速之间的"剪刀差"成为市场关注的话题。那么， M1和M2到底是什么？如何看待"剪刀差"？一起来看本期快问快答↓ Q M1和M2是什么？ M2与M1增加代表了什么？ A: 通常来说，M1数值增加，意味着居民和企业拿在手里准备随时花出去的钱变多了，老百姓消费能力 增强，市场交易活跃，企业有意愿扩大生产。 M2是经济活动中重要的信号之一，其规模增加意味着全社会货币供应量的增加，流动性更加充裕，社 会经济活动更加活跃。 Q 如何看待M2与M1增速的"剪刀差"？ A: M2与M1增速的"剪刀差"一直是市场关注的焦点之一。"剪刀差"如果扩大，说明企业在获得资金后， 往往选择存进银行，而不去投资和使用，这在一定程度上反映了经济下行压力下，企业投资意愿下降。 而去年以来，"剪刀差"的收窄则 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with household loans decreasing by 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan [15][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20][4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [9][6]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][6]. Loan Data - As of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14][3]. - The report notes that short-term loans for households decreased by 1.023 trillion yuan, while medium- to long-term loans increased by 100 billion yuan [15][10]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate was 3.8%, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [19][4]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19][4]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20][4]. - The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20][4].

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]

Group 1: Loan Growth - In December 2025, new short-term loans for enterprises increased by CNY 370 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 390 billion, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations[12] - New medium and long-term loans for enterprises amounted to CNY 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 290 billion, showing improvement partly due to a low base in 2024[12] - The overall new social financing in December was CNY 22,075 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 6,462 billion, aligning with seasonal patterns[5] Group 2: Deposit Growth - M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[26] - New RMB deposits in December reached CNY 16,800 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 30,800 billion, indicating a reverse seasonal growth[26] - Non-bank deposits contributed significantly to the deposit increase, with a net decrease of CNY 330 billion in December, which was a year-on-year improvement of CNY 28,400 billion[28] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - It is expected that enterprise credit will improve at the beginning of 2026, driven by policies aimed at stabilizing investment[29] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, uncertainties in investment behavior, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[32]