CPO/OIO
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天孚通信(300394):物料供应有望改善,泰国产线持续爬坡
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue in Q3 2025 due to a bottleneck in the supply of core materials, but this is expected to improve in subsequent quarters. The gross margin significantly increased, driven by optimized cost control, enhancing profitability [3][8]. - The production capacity in Thailand is steadily ramping up, with phase two expected to achieve mass production next year. The demand for high-speed optical modules remains strong, driven by AI, positioning the company to benefit as a core component supplier [3][8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the emerging CPO/OIO market, with substantial technological accumulation and a clear strategic position with major overseas clients [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.4% but a slight decline of 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 53.7%, with effective cost management reflected in lower expense ratios across sales, management, R&D, and financial costs [8]. Production Capacity - The company's overseas production capacity in Thailand is progressing well, with phase one already in production since mid-2024. Phase two is currently in the R&D and customer validation stage, with expectations for scale production in 2026 [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is strategically positioned in the CPO/OIO market, with a focus on R&D investment, which totaled 200 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. This positions the company to maintain its competitive edge and achieve valuation premiums in the future [8]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 2.115 billion yuan, 3.120 billion yuan, and 3.861 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 57%, 48%, and 24% [8].
天孚通信(300394):Q2营收、业绩增长迅猛,有源贡献显著增量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-28 05:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9]. Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company experienced rapid revenue and performance growth, significantly driven by the increase in active components revenue, achieving a record growth rate [2][6]. - The Thai production line's capacity is continuously being released, with the 1.6T optical engine ramping up production, contributing to the company's revenue growth [2][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the blue ocean market brought by CPO/OIO penetration in the long term [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 900 million yuan, up 37.5% year-on-year [6]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.0% [6]. Product Performance - The demand for high-speed optical devices has surged, driven by the global data center expansion needs fueled by AI, leading to a rapid increase in the demand for both passive and active optical components [11]. - In H1 2025, active optical components generated revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.0%, while passive optical components generated revenue of 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [11]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 49.4%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the initial production phase of the Thai factory and the structural changes in product mix [11]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 37.2%, down 8.4 percentage points year-on-year but showed a slight recovery of 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to improved expense ratios [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued profit margin enhancement from the scale effect of its active optical business [11]. - The long-term outlook remains positive with anticipated benefits from CPO/OIO market penetration, supported by increased R&D investments in various optical component fields [11].
天孚通信(300394):25Q1营收环比增长提速,行业景气度高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-29 10:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, showing an acceleration compared to the previous two quarters. The growth in 2025 is primarily driven by the release of production capacity in Thailand and the ramp-up of the 1.6T optical engine [2][5]. - The gross margin slightly declined, while net profit margin was affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The company's overseas bases enhance delivery capabilities, helping to mitigate tariff impacts [2][5]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant long-term opportunities, with the company establishing strong ties with major overseas clients, leading to a premium in valuation [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8% [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 53%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 35.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 6.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations [2][5]. Market and Production Insights - The company is actively expanding production capacity in the optical passive device sector, with the first phase of the Thailand production line expected to start delivering soon. The second phase is also in preparation for expansion [2][5]. - The shift in focus from 800G products to 1.6T products by major clients is anticipated to accelerate delivery volumes in upcoming quarters, with the company well-prepared for this capacity increase [2][5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios are 19x, 14x, and 11x [2][5].