Analyst Commentary - Deepwater's Gene Munster shared takeaways from recent Big Tech quarterly results on 'Fast Money' [1]

Market Resilience & Economic Outlook - The market has shown resilience despite fears and earnings revisions, experiencing a V-shaped recovery after a 3% drop [1][2] - Tariff concerns are quickly absorbed by the markets and are not expected to derail the current trajectory [2] - Strong corporate earnings contribute to market resilience, even amidst skepticism about CPI numbers due to government shutdowns [3] - The market is engaged in a "juggling act," balancing strong earnings with concerns about economic data [3] - Concerns on the edges of the market are healthy, preventing a straight "rocket ship up" scenario and fostering a two-way conversation [6] Investment Strategy & Portfolio Allocation - A balanced portfolio, including alternative investments, is recommended for clients [4] - Alternative investments are crucial for protection in a down market, offering safe interest, low volatility, and absolute returns [14] - A sample allocation package includes 40-45% equities, 30-40% fixed income, and 25-35% alternative investments [14] - Focus is on market-neutral, uncorrelated asset classes within alternatives, targeting 4-6% volatility and 5-7% coupon [15] Technology & AI - AI is considered a potential global revolution, comparable to infrastructure developments like railroads, and is still in its early stages [5] - Companies are investing heavily in capex to stay ahead in AI, which may temporarily affect earnings but is seen as necessary for growth [11][12] Tech Earnings & Market Dynamics - Tech earnings expectations are relatively high, and the margin of beat may be lower than before [8] - Dispersion within the Mag 7 stocks is healthy, with some stocks up significantly while others are relatively flat year-to-date [8] - A 3% pullback in the market, despite challenges, indicates resilience but also suggests a lack of a significant reset [10] - Strong earnings and ongoing capex spending suggest positive market prospects for the next 6-12 months [12]

Group 1 - The upcoming auction is expected to perform well, with a tendency for the market to push yields higher [1] - Current bond rates present buying opportunities, despite concerns about the government shutdown impacting GDP [2][3] - Historical data shows that past government shutdowns have not significantly affected market movements, indicating a temporary impact [3] Group 2 - Corporate bond spreads are historically tight, suggesting high prices and potential for losses in the coming year [4][5] - Investment in high-quality corporate bonds is recommended to maintain value, but overall losses are anticipated [6] - Mortgage-backed securities are highlighted as a better investment option due to low coupon rates and favorable prepayment conditions [7][8] Group 3 - The economy is perceived as strong due to AI and capital expenditure, but concerns about a slowdown are emerging [9][11] - Various economic indicators, including housing and wage growth, are showing signs of decline, prompting expectations for rate cuts by the Fed [11][12] - The stock market's strength is viewed as an illusion, with skepticism about the profitability of AI investments in the near future [13][14]

All right. So, Mario, we're we're very much focused this morning on Oracle and its results. Um, big jump in its cloud infrastructure business.Has a lot of people talking here on Wall Street. Are you guys talking about that. The fact that we're seeing such growth in the needs when it comes to cloud infrastructure, which means there's also a growth in the need for power.Yeah, absolutely, Frank. So, Black & Beach has been doing critical infrastructure for over 110 years and uh we are deep into it. uh power is ...

Market Risks & Opportunities - The biggest risk to equity markets this week is the unemployment rate, particularly large-cap tech earnings, given high valuations and concentrated positioning [2] - Negative talk about earnings or capex guidance could create pressure [3] - Disruption in credit spreads and the long end of the yield curve are potential market disruptors [6] - International investors feel underweight in AI trade and US equities, representing a potential source of incremental demand [16] Labor Market & Fed Policy - A labor number repeating last month's performance (around 150 thousand jobs) with unemployment at 41% would be favorable [7] - The Fed is willing to cut rates in that environment if inflation cooperates [7] - A significant miss on labor data (below 75 thousand or 50 thousand jobs) is needed to notably lower the market [9] - An unemployment rate of 41% with friendly inflation creates a good macro environment, influencing debates on Fed rate cuts [8] Market Dynamics & Technicals - The market is rallying in a low-velocity way with underlying demand [10] - Approximately 12 trillion of stock buybacks are expected this year [10] - VIX term structure indicates awareness of potential landmines in the next three months [12] - Analog semis were underowned and have started to correct [15]

All right. So, one of the reasons it seems like your stock's moving back is that you you lowered your fullear profit guidance. Can you give us a sense what was the real catalyst for that.Is it tariffs. Is it the stronger euro. What's the biggest factor.Uh, we actually didn't change our guidance. What we do is we guide at constant currency. And as you know, the euro's been particularly strong versus other currencies this year.And uh all we did was uh mark our guidance to market. So, um, we took the number do ...