(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market currencies are proving more stable than those in developed nations, a streak some investors say could become the longest in more than two decades. JPMorgan volatility indexes show developing nations’ currencies have swung less than their Group of Seven peers for nearly 200 straight days — the longest stretch since 2008. If it passes 208 days, it would mark a record going back to 2000. Most Read from Bloomberg The unusual calm in the cohort usually regarded as riskier is be ...

Group 1 - The Value Lab focuses on long-only value investment strategies, aiming for a portfolio yield of approximately 4% by identifying mispriced international equities [1] - The JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP) has significant exposure to industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, which are influenced by the fluctuations of the Yen [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society provides high conviction investment ideas that are expected to yield non-correlated and outsized returns in the current economic climate, emphasizing downside protection [2] Group 2 - The Value Lab offers members real-time portfolio updates, 24/7 chat support, regular market news reports, and feedback on stock ideas [2]

Core Insights - The stability of a major global currency, specifically the Japanese yen, is under threat, which is impacting Bitcoin in the short term [1] - A potential coordinated currency intervention by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant appreciation of the yen, which surged 3.39% against the dollar [2] - The strengthening yen could disrupt the carry trade strategy that has benefited risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors may need to liquidate these assets to cover their positions [5][6] Currency Intervention and Market Impact - The New York Fed's procedural rate check has raised concerns about a coordinated intervention to strengthen the yen, which could involve selling U.S. dollars to buy yen [2][6] - A stronger yen threatens to reverse the carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [5] - The recent turmoil in Japan, including a spike in government bond yields to 4%, has contributed to the yen's volatility and the subsequent impact on risk assets [3] Bitcoin's Performance and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has shown minimal growth of only 0.14% year-to-date, contrasting with rising prices in gold and silver, indicating a lack of investor confidence amid changing macroeconomic conditions [4] - The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin's price is increasingly influenced by traditional financial flows, with leveraged positions facing heightened costs due to rising volatility premiums [6][7] - The expectation of intervention has led to increased selling pressure on Bitcoin as investors liquidate positions to cover yen loans [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic outlook, interest rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets Core Insights US Rates - Yields are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a forecast for 2-year yields around 3.60% and 10-year yields at 4.25% by 1H26, and 3.85% and 4.35% by YE26 respectively [10][33] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts in 1H26, with a target range for the funds rate of 3.25-3.5% by 1Q26 [10][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.5% in 1Q26 before easing to 4.3% by 4Q26 [10] International Rates - Growth in developed markets (DM) is expected to remain at or above potential, with inflation gradually declining but remaining above target in some areas [4] - Central banks in DM are likely to pause or conclude easing cycles in 1H26, with specific forecasts for 10-year yields: 4.35% for UST, 2.75% for Bunds, and 4.75% for gilts by 4Q26 [4][36] Commodities - The oil market is expected to stabilize due to rising demand and production cuts, with a bullish outlook for gold projected to reach $5,000/oz [6] - Agricultural stock-to-use ratios are expected to remain low, indicating potential supply constraints [6] Currencies - A bearish bias on the USD is anticipated, driven by positive growth in the rest of the world (RoW) and US twin deficits [52] - Preference for high beta/yielding currencies, with key themes including global procyclicality and synchronized central bank pauses [53] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to experience lower macro volatility, supporting local markets in 2026 [6] - Growth and inflation in EM are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing [6] Additional Important Insights - The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [17][20] - The demand for Treasuries is shifting towards more price-sensitive investors, which may help keep long-term yields anchored at higher levels [29] - The passage of the OBBBA raised the debt limit by $5 trillion, expected to last until the second half of 2027 [23] - Seasonal patterns suggest a gradual decrease in bill sizes into December, followed by a rebound as corporate taxes lift the Treasury General Account (TGA) [21][23] Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a cautious but stable environment for interest rates, commodities, and currencies, with specific attention to the evolving dynamics in emerging markets and the implications of fiscal policies on Treasury demand and yields.

Bond Market Overview - The US is cutting interest rates while the Bank of Japan has raised rates to 30-year highs, impacting global yields [1] - The 10-year and 30-year bond yields are reaching multi-decade highs due to these changes [1] Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan sentiment index reported a historically low current situation score, the lowest since the 1970s at 52.9% [2] - This low confidence level typically correlates with declining equity markets, yet equities are currently rising, indicating a disconnect [3] Inflation and Market Reactions - Recent CPI data has been deemed inaccurate, yet the market seems to overlook this, with yields on both 2-year and 10-year bonds increasing [4][5] - The French 10-year bond yield closed at 3.61%, marking a 14-year high, while the Japanese 10-year yield surpassed 2%, a 26-year high [6] Global Interest Rate Trends - The tightening of global monetary policy, particularly from Japan, is affecting investment strategies and arbitrage opportunities worldwide [7]

Market Overview - The crypto market experienced significant volatility, with bitcoin (BTC) rising from $85,200 to $88,000 following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, marking the highest level in 30 years [1] - This week, bitcoin has jumped over 2% on four occasions, although these rallies have been temporary, reflecting the choppy behavior typical of previous crypto bear markets [1] Derivatives Positioning - Bitcoin open interest increased faster than its price, indicating that the price movement was supported by leveraged long positions rather than short position cover [5] - The aggregate funding rate for bitcoin across exchanges rose to 0.085%, the highest since November 21, suggesting a bullish environment as long position holders pay interest to short sellers [5] - The altcoin market did not reflect bitcoin's bullish signals, with SOL and XRP open interest declining by 4.4% and 2.6%, respectively, indicating futures traders are exiting speculative assets [5] Altcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's long/short ratio shows a bullish skew, with 66% of traders going long in the past four hours [5] - Despite the overall altcoin market suffering, ether (ETH) outperformed bitcoin, rising by 1.5% against BTC, although it had been in a downtrend earlier in the week [5] - The altcoin market requires bitcoin to break above resistance levels and consolidate to encourage capital flow into more speculative assets [5] - The lack of speculation is evident as CoinDesk's memecoin index (CDMEME) increased by 2.42%, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) rose by 3.68% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is facing significant macroeconomic challenges as the Bank of Japan signals a shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could tighten global liquidity and negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Shift - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year, marking a step towards normalization despite potential political and economic challenges [2]. - This shift in Japan's monetary policy could lead to a decrease in liquidity for global risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it unwinds the carry trade that has supported these assets for years [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bitcoin and Risk Assets - Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of $126,080 on October 6, currently trading at $87,800, reflecting the pressure from changing macroeconomic conditions [1]. - The normalization of the yen through interest rate hikes could lead to a stronger dollar and increased volatility in equity and crypto markets, as liquidity shifts from abundant to constrained [3][4]. Group 3: Mixed Global Macro Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is complex, with Japan raising interest rates (negative for crypto) while the US is lowering rates (positive for crypto), creating conflicting influences on the market [5]. - Analysts suggest that these opposing macroeconomic forces may balance out over time, but in the short term, they are likely to contribute to increased volatility in the crypto market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to announce a potential interest rate hike on December 19, which could negatively impact Bitcoin and other risk assets due to historical market reactions to BOJ tightening cycles [1][5][6]. Group 1: BOJ's Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's upcoming interest rate decision has raised concerns in global markets, particularly regarding the impact on Bitcoin and risk-on assets [1]. - Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that further rate increases are possible, leading to speculation among analysts and traders [1][5]. - A December poll indicated that 90% of economists expect the BOJ to raise short-term interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% [5]. Group 2: Impact of Rate Hikes on Markets - The BOJ's policy decisions have a significant global impact due to the carry trade, where investors borrow Yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets [2]. - When the BOJ raises rates, it can lead to liquidity outflows from various asset classes, including equities, bonds, and digital assets like Bitcoin [2]. - A sequence of events can occur following a carry trade collapse, including rising bond yields, a stronger Yen, increased costs for Yen-based debts, and forced liquidations of risk assets [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Predictions - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has reacted negatively to previous BOJ tightening cycles, with significant price drops following rate increases [5][6]. - Analysts have drawn parallels to past events, such as the December 2022 meeting when the BOJ's actions caused market disturbances [6]. - Predictions indicate that if the BOJ raises rates again, Bitcoin could experience further declines, similar to past instances where rate hikes led to substantial price drops [6].

Group 1: Central Bank Actions and Economic Data - The week is significant for central bank actions, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, which could have global ripple effects [7][13][35] - Key economic data releases include US payrolls, retail sales, PMIs, and CPI, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's next meeting [6][14][16] - The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also facing similar challenges regarding inflation and job market conditions [9][31][32] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - US markets ended lower on Friday, with the tech sector, particularly the NASDAQ, experiencing significant declines, dropping nearly 3% [16][18] - Broadcom's stock fell almost 11% following its earnings report, contributing to the negative sentiment in the AI sector [18] - Asian markets reflected this trend, with notable declines in tech stocks, including SoftBank and TSMC [19] Group 3: Ukraine's NATO Membership and Financial Support - Ukraine has dropped its demand for NATO membership in exchange for bilateral security guarantees, marking a significant shift in its diplomatic stance [41][62] - Ongoing discussions in the European Council focus on financing Ukraine, with pressure building to find solutions for further financial support [50][56] - Italy and Belgium have expressed opposition to using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, complicating the financial support discussions [44][48]

Japanese Bond Market Analysis - Japanese 30-year bond market is experiencing significant activity, with the 10 to 30-year spread nearly twice the normal spread over the last 25 years, reaching almost 160 compared to the usual 85 [2] - Japan is undergoing a normalization of its monetary policy after a period of yield curve controls and deflation [3][10] - The rise in Japanese bond yields could lead to a slowdown in the Japanese economy [7] Carry Trade Implications - Estimates suggest a $500 billion carry trade exists, and rising Japanese yields could cause capital to flow from the US back to Japan [5] - The unwinding of the carry trade is expected to continue as the US lowers interest rates and Japan raises them [10] Bond Samurai Influence - "Bond Samurai" are influencing the Japanese government to slow down quantitative tightening and adjust bond issuance towards the long end [6] - If the Japanese government doesn't heed the "Bond Samurai's" advice, rates could rise further, leading to a significant economic slowdown that could impact the US [7] US Market Impact - US real rates are approximately 100 basis points too high on the long end [11] - High US real rates could lead to a continued economic slowdown in the US unless they are lowered quickly [12]