Packaged water market share is stabilizing. The company's internal data shows its packaged water market share edged up at end-Q3 from end-Q2, aligned with third-party data (Mashangying) trends we tracked. FY2025E self-owned capacity ratio >60%. The ratio is slightly above 60%, meeting the target but progress is slower than we expected due to: 1) Longer ramp-up at the Wuyishan factory; 2) The Wenzhou Wencheng "lights-out" factory (1.05mn tons) commenced production on Jan 1, 2026, later than the planned 2H25; ...

27 Jan 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update CR Beverage (2460 HK) CR Beverage (2460 HK) - Leave Leave the worst behind in 2025 We forecast CR Beverage's FY25E net profit to decline 35.5% to RMB1.06bn, with a steeper drop in 2H25E due to concentrated signing of large marketing contracts and increased supply chain investments. Capacity expansion is slightly slower than market expectations, while channel reform is progressing faster. Beyond the stabilization of packaged wate ...

Summary of Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) 2Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) - **Industry**: Spirits and Alcoholic Beverages Key Financial Results - **1H25 Performance**: - Total revenue increased by **4.2%** year-over-year (yoy) to **Rmb52.8 billion** - Net profit rose by **2.3%** yoy to **Rmb14.6 billion** [1][4] - **2Q25 Results**: - Total revenue of **Rmb15.8 billion**, a slight increase of **0.1%** yoy - Net profit of **Rmb4.6 billion**, a decrease of **7.6%** yoy [1] - **Operating Margins**: - Operating profit margin (OPM) at **35.4%**, net profit margin (NPM) at **29.3%**, both below estimates [1] Sales Performance - **Spirits Sales**: - Wuliangye Spirits sales grew by **4.6%** to **Rmb41.0 billion** - Series spirits sales increased by **2.7%** to **Rmb8.1 billion** [1][11] - **Volume and Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - Wuliangye Spirits volume up **12.7%**, ASP down **7.2%** - Series spirits volume up **58.8%**, ASP down **35.3%** [1][11] Customer Advances and Distribution - **Customer Advances**: Increased to **Rmb10.1 billion**, up **24%** yoy [1][10] - **Distributor Contribution**: Top 5 distributors contributed **Rmb30.1 billion**, representing **57%** of overall sales in 1H25, up from **21%** in 1H24 [1] Market Dynamics - **Channel and Brand Strength**: Resilience attributed to strong channel and brand power, market share gains in banquet scenarios, and channel reforms initiated in early 2025 [2] - **Wholesale Pricing**: Current wholesale price of the 8th Common Wuliangye is **Rmb860** per bottle, down **Rmb10** in the past two weeks [1] Margins and Expenses - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - Wuliangye Spirits GPM at **87.0%**, Series spirits GPM at **60.8%** [9] - **Selling Expenses**: Increased by **9%** yoy in 2Q25, impacting NPM [1] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Current Valuation**: Stock trading at **15x** 2025 P/E with a **5%** dividend yield [2] - **Price Target**: 12-month target price set at **Rmb139**, indicating an upside of **9.8%** from current levels [17] - **Risks**: Potential consumption tax hikes, competition from Moutai-flavor brands, and intensifying competition in high-end spirits [15] Additional Insights - **Sales by Region**: East, South, and North regions reported sales of **Rmb20.1 billion**, **Rmb21.9 billion**, and **Rmb7.1 billion** respectively, with growth rates of **7.9%**, **1.9%**, and **1.8%** [11] - **Distributor Changes**: Number of distributors decreased to **3,587** from **3,711** at the end of 2024, while series distributors increased to **1,077** [11] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Wuliangye's financial performance, market dynamics, and investment outlook.