Group 1: Cocoa Price Movements - Cocoa prices closed lower on Friday, with December ICE NY cocoa down 1.43% and December ICE London cocoa down 1.73% [1][2] - The decline in cocoa prices was influenced by a stronger dollar, leading to long liquidation in cocoa futures [2] - Cocoa prices had previously reached one-week highs due to weather concerns in West Africa, including heavy rain in the Ivory Coast and dryness in Ghana and Nigeria [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Tighter cocoa inventories are supportive for prices, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports falling to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags [4] - The Ivory Coast's cocoa exports showed a 5.8% increase year-on-year, but this was a slowdown compared to a previous 35% increase [4] - Weak global cocoa demand has negatively impacted prices, with significant declines in cocoa grindings reported in Europe, Asia, and North America [10] Group 3: Crop Conditions and Quality - Optimism about this year's cocoa crop harvest in West Africa is present, with a cocoa pod count reported to be 7% above the five-year average [6] - Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa are supportive of prices, with a projected decline of 9% in this year's mid-crop compared to last year [8] - Ghana's projected cocoa production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by 8.3%, which may exert bearish pressure on cocoa prices [11] Group 4: Global Cocoa Deficit and Future Projections - The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years [12] - A forecasted global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 marks the first surplus in four years, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-on-year [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reaffirmed its full year 2025 organic sales growth guidance of about 5% despite facing headwinds from U.S. retailer restocking and adverse weather conditions in Europe affecting chocolate demand [9][10] - For 2025, the company anticipates a reasonable top-line growth of 4% to 5% but expects a 10% decline in EPS, which is considered acceptable given the current cocoa circumstances [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in North America declined approximately 3.5% year over year in the first half, attributed to retailer restocking and softer underlying trends [14][20] - The company is focusing on optimizing shopping trips and maximizing brand presence, particularly for Oreo, which has seen increased penetration but decreased purchase frequency [18][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, the company experienced higher elasticities than anticipated, with current levels around 0.6 to 0.7, compared to the expected 0.4 [28][29] - The cocoa supply situation is improving, with a 7% increase in cocoa pot counts in West Africa compared to the last five-year norm, suggesting potential price reductions in the future [31][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy established in 2018 remains valid, focusing on building presence in key categories and supporting brand growth [5][6] - The company is exploring collaborations with other brands, such as Coca-Cola and Biscoff, to enhance product offerings and market presence [21][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer spending has remained stagnant over the past 24 to 30 months, leading to cautious shopping behavior [15][16] - The outlook for North America is expected to remain challenging for the next 6 to 12 months, with consumers becoming increasingly careful in their spending [20] Other Important Information - The cakes and pastries category is projected to grow from $95 billion to approximately $125 billion by 2030, with the company aiming to enhance its position in this fragmented market [52][54] - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to M&A, focusing on smaller assets that align with its strategic goals [48][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for North America in the next 6 to 12 months? - Management expects continued challenges in North America, with consumers remaining cautious and spending levels stagnant [20] Question: How does the company view current cocoa levels and supply dynamics? - The company believes current cocoa prices are unsustainable and anticipates a surplus in the market, leading to potential price reductions [30][32] Question: What is the strategy regarding M&A and share buybacks? - The company remains disciplined in M&A, focusing on smaller strategic assets, while being pragmatic about share buybacks given current stock prices [46][50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported good overall Q2 results with slight better-than-expected bottom line performance despite volume mix being flattish when adjusted for downsizing [6][7] - The company maintained its full-year outlook, indicating confidence in its financial performance [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The chocolate category showed significant pricing increases and strong performance, aligning with expectations [7] - The biscuits category in North America is experiencing a decline in volume, while emerging markets are showing double-digit growth with sustained volume and value increases [11][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is facing consumer anxiety and a focus on essential items, leading to a decline in the biscuits category [9][10] - Emerging markets, particularly Brazil, India, and Mexico, are performing well despite softer consumer confidence [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on pricing strategies and cost control to boost profitability, especially in North America [14][16] - There is a plan to increase productivity and explore opportunities in alternate channels to offset challenges in traditional retail [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management does not anticipate a material rebound in the North American category for the remainder of the year, citing ongoing consumer sentiment issues [13][17] - The company is cautious about the impact of cocoa prices and consumer behavior on future performance, particularly in the context of inflation and economic uncertainty [25][42] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing its debt and share repurchase strategy, indicating a pragmatic approach to capital deployment [62][64] - There is no significant impact from GLP-1 drugs on current volumes, with economic factors being the primary driver of consumer behavior [66][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on key geographies and actions in North America - Management highlighted a strong performance in Europe and challenges in North America, with plans for incremental pricing and cost control measures [5][13] Question: Clarification on guidance for the second half - Management reaffirmed guidance, accounting for tougher areas like chocolate and North America, while remaining vigilant on market conditions [19][20] Question: Cocoa market outlook and pricing strategy - Management discussed favorable cocoa market fundamentals and potential pricing strategies for 2026, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring [24][25] Question: Impact of consumer behavior on North American volumes - Management attributed volume declines to economic anxiety rather than GLP-1 drugs, indicating a minimal effect from the latter [66][68] Question: Retailer destocking in North America - Management explained that retailer destocking was driven by cash flow management and an overall slowdown in consumption, with expectations for recovery in Q3 [71][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects EPS to decline about 30% for the first half of 2025, with Q2 expected to be down less than Q1, which was down over 30% [13][14] - Gross margin for Q2 is expected to decrease by approximately 700 basis points, influenced by tariff components and increased SG&A expenses [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in its business, with a 100 basis point gain in market share, particularly in the sweets category [22] - Seasonal chocolate is expected to be strong in the first half, with plans for low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate in the second half [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, with double-digit growth driven by Easter and innovation [98] - The competitive environment in the U.S. chocolate market remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a snacking powerhouse, leveraging its core capabilities to maximize consumer reach and snacking occasions [80] - There is an emphasis on innovation and investment in iconic brands to meet consumer demands, with significant plans for new product launches in the fall [70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a weak consumer environment but notes that chocolate and salty snacks have held up well, with everyday chocolate pricing up 8% and volume down 4.5% [32] - The company remains optimistic about a path to earnings growth in 2026, even with current tariff levels, emphasizing the importance of mitigation actions [20][85] Other Important Information - The company does not anticipate a material impact from potential SNAP restrictions, as only about 2% of SNAP purchases are candy [48] - The company is not planning any buybacks for the year but remains open to reengaging in buybacks if the tariff headwind diminishes [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the risk of tariff expenses in Q2? - Management indicated that the unmitigated impact could be up to $100 million per quarter for Q3 and Q4, primarily from cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs [10][11] Question: How should investors think about the magnitude of EPS decline in Q2? - EPS for the first half is expected to be down about 30%, with Q2 expected to be less impacted than Q1 due to strong net sales [14][15] Question: What is the outlook for balanced growth in 2026? - Management maintains a path to earnings growth next year, despite challenges, emphasizing the need for mitigation actions [20] Question: How is the company addressing changing consumer preferences? - The company has seen improvements in its instant consumable business and anticipates continued market share growth in the second half of the year [22] Question: What is the impact of cocoa prices on capacity expansion? - The new plant allows for greater agility and control over the supply chain, enabling the company to meet demand effectively despite high cocoa prices [42] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape in the U.S. chocolate market? - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Question: What is the company's approach to pricing in light of cocoa inflation? - Pricing is expected to increase in Q2 and Q3 as seasonal pricing and price pack architecture are implemented [128]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reported a decline of 13.8% year-over-year, impacted by a 90 basis point headwind from foreign currency translation and a 30 basis point benefit from the Sour Strips acquisition [22][23] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 32% in the quarter, with expectations for a less severe decline in the second quarter as seasonal impacts reverse [29] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 370 basis points, primarily due to commodity inflation and negative sales mix, with expectations for further compression in the second quarter [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales declined by 15%, in line with expectations, with volume down nearly 18% [23][24] - North America salty snacks segment net sales increased by 1%, with volume growth of nearly 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [24][25] - The salty snacks portfolio showed strong performance, with Skinnypop consumption increasing by 5.4% and Dots retail takeaway growing by 20.6% [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment organic constant currency net sales declined by 7.9%, with performance ahead of expectations in key markets [24][15] - Constant currency net sales increased mid-teens in Brazil and mid-single digits in Mexico, driven by improved category dynamics [15] - The global cocoa grind declined by 3.4% in Q1, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of declines [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a leading snacking powerhouse, with strategic acquisitions like Lesser Evil and Fulfill to enhance its portfolio [6][7] - Plans to build momentum in everyday business through innovation and programming, including new product launches and partnerships [12][13] - Continued investment in brands is expected to drive long-term growth, with a full-year advertising spend increase projected in the mid-single digits [16] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted heightened cost pressures but emphasized a strong balance sheet that allows for continued investment [6] - The company anticipates total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts seen in Q1 [22] - Cocoa prices are expected to build cost pressure each quarter, with robust planning underway to mitigate inflation and protect margins [19][20] Other Important Information - The company is pursuing an exemption request for cocoa tariffs, which cannot be mitigated through sourcing strategies [20][31] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $146 million, lower than the prior year, with full-year expectations of $425 million to $450 million [30] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1, prioritizing capital for announced acquisitions [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for net sales growth in the upcoming quarters? - The company expects total net sales to increase by more than 20% in Q2, reversing the impacts from Q1 [22] Question: How is the company addressing cocoa price pressures? - The company is implementing robust planning to mitigate inflation and protect margins, with a focus on pricing and sourcing strategies [19][20] Question: What is the outlook for advertising spend this year? - The company anticipates a mid-single digit increase in full-year advertising spend, reflecting a commitment to brand investment [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales growth of 8.7% in Q4 2024, with organic constant currency net sales growing 9%, slightly ahead of expectations [22] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were $2.69, supported by strong productivity and cost management despite low double-digit input cost inflation [27] - Adjusted gross margin increased by 60 basis points in Q4, reflecting stronger pricing and productivity gains [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment reported an organic constant currency net sales increase of 5.9%, driven by approximately four points of price realization [22] - North America Salty Snacks segment saw a significant increase of 35.9% in net sales, reflecting a tailwind from inventory adjustments and strong performance in brands like Skinny Pop and Dots pretzels [24] - Retail sales in North American salty snacks accelerated to 7.1% in Q4, with Skinny Pop retail sales increasing by 4.7% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The International segment experienced organic constant currency net sales growth of 15%, driven by strong holiday and innovation contributions [23] - In Mexico and EMEA, the company reported double-digit constant currency organic sales growth, while India saw high single-digit growth [14] - Cocoa market remains volatile, with high prices expected to pressure earnings in 2025, although supply fundamentals are improving [16][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving top-line growth and share momentum while executing transformation and efficiency programs [6] - Plans for 2025 include a strong year of innovation and media investment across the confection business, with fewer but larger innovations [11] - The company aims to improve its cost structure by nearly $900 million between 2023 and 2026 while investing in capabilities and technology [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the pressure from rising cocoa prices but emphasized a focus on long-term growth and efficiency [18] - The company expects net sales growth of at least 2% for the full year 2025, driven primarily by price realization [15] - Management expressed confidence in navigating short-term market challenges while maintaining a focus on long-term growth strategies [35] Other Important Information - The company welcomed new leadership for its U.S. Confectionery and Salty Snacks divisions, aiming to leverage fresh perspectives and internal knowledge [20] - The company plans to maintain its dividend and elevate share buybacks as a priority, projecting a decline in shares outstanding by approximately 50 basis points for the year [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for cocoa prices in 2025? - Management indicated that cocoa prices are expected to remain high, impacting earnings, but they have good visibility into costs and supply [16][30] Question: How does the company plan to address input cost inflation? - The company is focused on productivity and cost management, with a target to improve its cost structure significantly over the next few years [19] Question: What are the growth expectations for the International segment? - The International segment is expected to see continued expansion driven by household penetration, distribution, and innovation momentum, despite some competitive pressures [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales growth of 8.7% in Q4 2024, with organic constant currency net sales growing 9%, slightly ahead of expectations [23] - Adjusted gross margin increased by 60 basis points in Q4, reflecting stronger pricing and productivity gains [26] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were $2.69, supported by robust net sales growth and effective cost management [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment saw an organic constant currency net sales increase of 5.9%, driven by approximately four points of price realization [24] - North America Salty Snacks segment experienced a significant increase of 35.9% in net sales, aided by inventory adjustments and strong performance from Skinny Pop and Dots pretzels [25] - Retail sales in North American salty snacks accelerated to 7.1% in Q4, with Skinny Pop and Dots pretzels contributing to growth [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Candy, mint, and gum retail sales increased by 2% in Q4, indicating seasonal strength and growth in everyday business [7] - International segment achieved double-digit constant currency organic sales growth in Mexico and EMEA, with high single-digit growth in India [14] - Cocoa market remains volatile, with high prices expected to pressure earnings in 2025, although supply fundamentals indicate a slight surplus [16][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving top-line growth and share momentum while executing transformation and efficiency programs [6] - Plans for 2025 include a strong year of innovation and media investment across the confection business [11] - The company aims to improve its cost structure by nearly $900 million between 2023 and 2026 while investing in capabilities and technology [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the pressure from rising cocoa prices but emphasized a commitment to long-term growth and efficiency [18] - The company expects net sales growth of at least 2% for the full year 2025, driven primarily by price realization [15] - Management expressed confidence in navigating short-term market challenges while focusing on long-term growth strategies [37] Other Important Information - The AAA program delivered $143 million in net savings in 2024, exceeding the target, with an increased savings target of $350 million for 2025 [27] - The company plans to maintain its dividend and prioritize share buybacks, projecting a decline in shares outstanding by approximately 50 basis points for the year [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for cocoa prices in 2025? - Management indicated that cocoa prices are expected to remain high, impacting earnings, but they have good visibility into costs and supply [31] Question: How does the company plan to address competitive pressures in international markets? - The company expects continued expansion driven by household penetration, distribution, and innovation momentum despite competitive pressures [14] Question: What are the key growth drivers for the North America Salty Snacks segment? - Growth is expected to be driven by increased distribution, merchandising, media, and innovation, with solid mid-single-digit growth anticipated [25]