Illinois-based Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading global snack food company focused on biscuits, chocolate, confectionery and gum, with operations spanning more than 150 countries. Formed in 2012, the company owns a portfolio of iconic, billion-dollar brands such as Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, Ritz, Toblerone and Sour Patch Kids. It is currently valued at a market cap of $69.2 billion. The company is set to announce its fourth-quarter results soon. Ahead of the event, analysts expect Mondelez to ...

Core Viewpoint - Mondelēz International, Inc. has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on January 14, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Mondelēz International operates in over 150 countries, focusing on empowering people to snack right [2] - The company reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion for the year 2024 [2] - Mondelēz International features a portfolio of iconic brands including Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar, Tate's Bake Shop, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone [2] - The company is recognized as a member of the Dow Jones Best-in-Class North America and World Indices, previously known as the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices [2]

Core Thesis - Mondelez International, Inc. is experiencing share-price pressure despite strong Q3 results due to rising cocoa prices and elevated transportation costs impacting margins, alongside weakened American consumer purchasing power affecting near-term demand [2][4] Financial Performance - Mondelez reported a modest revenue growth of 5.86% year-over-year, surpassing inflation, but earnings fell by over 18% due to margin pressures [4] - Operating margins declined from 12.5% to 7.6%, and the return on invested capital (ROIC) is currently at 6.2%, trailing the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.67% [4] - Analysts project a one-year price target of $62, indicating approximately 11% upside from the current share price of $56.08 [4] Strategic Positioning - The company’s broad portfolio, global scale, and category leadership position it for resilient long-term performance, with dominant segments in biscuits and chocolate [3] - Key brands like Oreo and Cadbury drive brand loyalty, while emerging markets and premium snack offerings provide additional growth opportunities [3] - Strategic initiatives include investments in core brands, bolt-on acquisitions, supply chain efficiencies, e-commerce expansion, and sustainability programs like Cocoa Life [3] Market Outlook - Despite short-term headwinds from cocoa volatility, logistics costs, and regulatory scrutiny, Mondelez's focus on emerging markets and premium products positions it to withstand macroeconomic pressures [5] - The company presents a conservative investment opportunity with moderate upside, where near-term market reactions may obscure long-term fundamentals and global snack leadership [5][6]

Core Insights - Mondelēz is leveraging artificial intelligence through its generative AI tool AIDA to enhance marketing content production and personalization, aiming for higher engagement and conversion rates [1][6][7] - The company has invested over $40 million in AIDA, which is expected to reduce marketing content creation costs by up to 50% [5][6] - AIDA is still in the learning phase, being tailored to fit the unique needs of Mondelēz's diverse brand portfolio while ensuring responsible advertising practices [4][15] Investment and Strategy - The initial investment in AIDA is significant, prompting Mondelēz to prioritize features that deliver quick value [2] - The company is exploring which brands to pilot first with AIDA to maximize the tool's effectiveness [2][18] - AIDA's infrastructure is designed to be scalable, with plans to identify additional value cases for expansion [18] Technology and Implementation - AIDA was developed over two years and aims to create marketing content more efficiently, allowing for personalized material targeting specific consumer groups [6][7] - The company emphasizes the importance of integrating AI thoughtfully, ensuring it enhances existing processes rather than complicating them [8][9] - There is ongoing experimentation with AIDA to push its capabilities and improve output quality [11][12] Challenges and Considerations - The complexity of food marketing requires AIDA to maintain high fidelity in product representation, which differs from other consumer goods [13][14] - Mondelēz is committed to responsible AI use, ensuring that outputs align with brand values and do not promote unhealthy consumption [15][16] - Legal oversight remains a critical part of the process, with all marketing assets undergoing manual review before market release [17]

Core Insights - Mondelez International is investing 620 million zlotys ($169 million) to expand its biscuit factory in Płońsk, Poland, aiming to make it the largest in the country [1][3] - The expansion is expected to increase production capacity by 30% and create 180 new jobs, adding to the current workforce of approximately 700 employees [1][4] Company Operations - The Płońsk facility has been operational since 1976 and has evolved into a key biscuit production hub for Mondelez in Europe, responsible for about 60% of the European volumes of the Barni brand, known as Lubisie in Poland [2] - The investment will include a dedicated production line for the Lubisie brand, a second line for Milka biscuits, a new raw-materials warehouse, and upgrades to site infrastructure [3][4] Strategic Importance - The strategic location of Poland is highlighted as crucial to Mondelez International's supply chain, with the investment reflecting the company's ambition to lead in the snacks market [3] - The modernization efforts are aimed at enhancing plant efficiency by 30% and improving safety measures [4]

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is valued at a market cap of $74.9 billion and operates in over 150 countries, focusing on premium snacking products like biscuits, chocolates, and candies [1] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Mondelez reported a 5.9% increase in net revenue, with organic sales up 3.4% driven by price increases, but volumes suffered and margins were pressured due to high cocoa and input costs [4] - Adjusted EPS fell 24.2% year over year to $0.73, and operating income decreased 35.5% from the previous year to $744 million [4] - For the current fiscal year, analysts expect MDLZ's EPS to decline 12.8% year over year to $2.93 [5] Stock Performance - Over the past year, MDLZ shares have declined 17.2%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has surged 17.4% [2] - Year-to-date, the stock is down 3.3%, while the benchmark index has gained 16% [2] - The stock has also trailed the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF's 14.4% loss over the past 52 weeks [3] Analyst Ratings - Among 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 14 "Strong Buy," three "Moderate Buy," eight "Hold," and one "Strong Sell" rating [5] - The mean price target of $71.56 suggests a 23.8% potential upside from current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $85 indicates an upside potential of 47.1% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Mondelez International, Inc. is positioned for potential growth with a new price target set by Wells Fargo, despite recent stock fluctuations and a decline on the day of the announcement [2][3][5]. Company Overview - Mondelez is a global leader in the snack food industry, operating in over 150 countries and known for brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Toblerone [1]. - The company focuses on various product categories including biscuits, chocolate, gum, candy, and powdered beverages, competing with major players like Nestlé and Mars, Inc. [1]. Financial Performance - Wells Fargo has set a price target of $72 for Mondelez, indicating a potential increase of approximately 19.58% from its current trading price of $60.21 [2][6]. - During the Q3 2025 earnings call, key executives discussed the company's financial performance and strategic direction, attended by analysts from major financial institutions [2][3][6]. - Despite the optimistic price target, Mondelez's stock experienced a decrease of 2.35% on the day of the announcement, dropping $1.45 to a low of $60.21 [3][6]. Market Metrics - Mondelez's stock has fluctuated over the past year, with a high of $71.15 and a low of $53.95 [4]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $77.91 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the global snack food market [4][6]. - The trading volume for the day reached 14.9 million shares, indicating active investor interest [4][6].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 increased by 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 193 points (0.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7%, all near all-time highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut to support a cooling job market [4][6] - Bond yields remained steady, with the 10-year Treasury yield decreasing to 3.98% from 3.99%, indicating investor caution ahead of the Fed's announcement [4][6] - The equity rally is supported by hopes for lower borrowing costs, although the Fed has cautioned about pausing its easing cycle if inflation accelerates [4][6] Company Earnings - Caterpillar's stock surged by 9.3% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, attributed to strong demand for construction and mining equipment [5][6] - CVS Health's shares climbed by 3.1% after surpassing profit estimates, despite reporting losses from reducing new primary care clinic openings [5][6] - Teradyne's stock soared by 19% following stronger-than-expected results, with robust demand for AI-related testing cited by CEO Greg Smith [5][6] - Nvidia's stock rose by 4.9%, making it the first company to achieve a $5 trillion market capitalization, significantly boosting the S&P 500 [5][6] - Mondelez International's shares fell by 3.3% despite solid earnings, as the company warned of ongoing challenges from record cocoa prices, although some moderation is expected [5][6] Global Market Performance - Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising by 2.2% to a new record and South Korea's Kospi increasing by 1.8% following a meeting between President Trump and South Korea's leader [5][6] - Shanghai's Composite Index gained 0.7% ahead of Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid ongoing trade tensions [5][6] - European stocks showed mixed performance as investors monitored global central bank actions and corporate earnings [5][6]

Core Insights - Mondelez International is a global leader in the snack industry, known for brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Trident, operating in over 150 countries and focusing on various snack categories [1] - The company reported an EPS of $0.73 and revenue of approximately $9.74 billion for the quarter ending October 28, 2025, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year revenue increase [2][4] - Mondelez has a strong track record of exceeding market expectations, surpassing consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters [3] Financial Performance - The reported EPS of $0.73 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.72 by 1.39%, although it decreased from $0.99 a year ago [3] - Revenue of $9.74 billion slightly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.07%, marking the second time in four quarters that revenue expectations were exceeded [4] - The company maintains a P/E ratio of approximately 21.41, a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.10, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.64 [5] Strategic Focus - Mondelez's revenue growth is attributed to its strategic focus on expanding product offerings and optimizing its supply chain, despite challenges such as high cocoa prices and rising transportation costs [4] - The company competes with major food companies like Nestlé and Mars, Inc., aiming to maintain its market position through innovation and strategic acquisitions [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decline in volume in North America by 4% compared to a 2.8% average year-to-date, indicating a slowdown in the market [20] - The guidance for Q4 implies a step up in organic net revenue growth of more than 4%, with an expected improvement in EBIT growth compared to the previous year [13][46] - Cocoa prices have been a significant factor, with a 30% price increase impacting the chocolate segment, but the company expects significant improvement moving forward [5][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, the biscuits, cakes, pastries, and meals business are performing well with share growth and volume mix growth, while the chocolate category is generally in line with expectations despite some pressure [5][6] - The U.S. biscuit category is facing challenges, with consumers focusing on essentials and shifting towards smaller packs and promotions [20][21] - Emerging markets showed a volume decline of 4.7%, primarily affected by Argentina's hyperinflation and economic conditions, but India and Brazil are performing better with mid-single-digit and double-digit growth respectively [39][41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer confidence in Europe remains stable, but the U.S. market is experiencing a decline in consumer spending and basket size, affecting overall sales [5][20] - Price elasticity in Europe is currently around 0.7 to 0.8, higher than the historical range of 0.4 to 0.5, indicating a need for price adjustments in certain product lines [8][34] - Emerging markets are showing varied performance, with China experiencing low single-digit growth and Argentina significantly impacting overall volume [40][41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing pricing strategies and promotional effectiveness to drive growth, particularly in the U.S. market [12][24] - There is a clear strategy to invest in emerging markets and adjacencies like cakes and pastries, with a goal of high single-digit EPS growth for 2026 [15][29] - The company plans to enhance its supply chain efficiency and reduce costs through automation and better logistics management [48][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential despite current challenges, emphasizing the importance of adapting to consumer behavior and market conditions [15][68] - The company anticipates a rebound in Europe driven by seasonal activations and improved pricing strategies, while the U.S. market is expected to stabilize with better promotional strategies [46][48] - Cocoa prices are expected to be deflationary in 2026, which will positively impact margins and allow for further investments [15][14] Other Important Information - The company is implementing a multi-year North America supply chain program aimed at addressing cost structures and improving service levels [48][50] - There is a focus on health and wellness trends, with plans to expand product offerings in better-for-you segments [25][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on European market pricing and elasticity - Management noted that the current price elasticity in Europe is around 0.7 to 0.8, which is higher than expected, and adjustments are being made to better align with consumer acceptance [34][58] Question: U.S. market growth strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing pricing and promotional strategies to regain growth, with a shift towards value offerings and better-for-you products [20][68] Question: Future investments and spending - Management confirmed that Q4 plans for investments are locked in, with a focus on continuous brand support and activation at point of sale [71][72]