Summary of Global Commodities Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, particularly energy, CleanTech, and utilities, as presented at the 2026 Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference by Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Research. Key Points Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices declined by 14% year-over-year in 2025, driven by broad-based supply strength leading to large inventory builds, which are expected to continue into 2026 [6][9] - Geopolitical risks present potential price volatility, but the net outlook remains downward [11] - Long-term projections indicate that demand will grow through 2040, but supply is expected to slow down from 2027, introducing downside price risks from technological advancements and geopolitical supply boosts [14][17] Natural Gas Market Outlook - The global LNG market is anticipated to be oversupplied, which will narrow the price spread between the US and Europe [21] - LNG exports are expected to increase by 3.0 Bcf/d in 2026 and 1.4 Bcf/d in 2027, necessitating additional production growth [24] - Haynesville production led growth in 2025, but challenges are expected in 2026 due to a low rig count [27] - The risk to the 2026 Henry Hub forecast is skewed to the downside due to strong production [30] Copper Market Outlook - The report identifies copper as a favored industrial metal, with a forecasted price of $11,400 for 2026, supported by a deficit outside the US [48] - The copper-aluminium price ratio is expected to reach new highs due to supply constraints and increased demand from electrification [59] Gold Market Outlook - A rally in gold prices is anticipated, with central banks and ETF investors competing for limited bullion, potentially driving prices up by 14% to $4,900 by December 2026 [53][59] Trade Recommendations - Long positions in gold and copper are recommended, while short positions in Brent and European natural gas are suggested due to expected market surpluses [59] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering geopolitical factors and technological advancements in the commodities market, which could significantly impact supply and demand dynamics [11][17] - The potential slowdown in the US's AI race with China may also influence energy demand and market conditions [40][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Outlook for 2026, highlighting the trends and potential investment opportunities within the commodities sector.

Group 1 - The Hecht Commodity Report is a comprehensive service covering market movements of over 29 different commodities, providing bullish, bearish, and neutral calls along with actionable trading recommendations [1] - Andrew Hecht, a veteran with 35 years of experience on Wall Street, leads the Hecht Commodity Report, which offers insights into 20 different commodities and trading ideas for investors [2] Group 2 - The author of the report maintains positions in commodities markets, including futures, options, and ETFs, and is currently long on silver [4]

Core Insights - The Hecht Commodity Report is recognized as one of the most comprehensive commodities reports available, focusing on market movements of over 29 different commodities [1] - The report provides various market calls including bullish, bearish, and neutral, along with directional trading recommendations and actionable ideas for traders and investors [1][2] Group 1 - The report covers market movements of 20 different commodities, offering insights and recommendations for traders [2] - The author maintains positions in commodities markets through futures, options, ETF/ETN products, and commodity equities, with positions changing on an intraday basis [3]

Group 1 - The Hecht Commodity Report is a comprehensive source for commodities analysis, covering over 29 different commodities and providing various market calls and trading recommendations [1][2] - Gold's bull market began in 1999 at a price of $252.50 per ounce, surpassing the 1980 high in 2008 and exceeding $1,000 per ounce for the first time in the same year [2] - COMEX gold futures have surpassed $1,500, indicating a significant upward trend in the precious metals market [2] Group 2 - The author of the report actively participates in commodities markets through futures, options, and ETF/ETN products, with positions that can change intraday [3] - The report provides actionable ideas for traders and investors, including bullish, bearish, and neutral calls [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as Attractive [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a preference for gold, steel, and cement in the near term, with expectations for more opportunities in metals during the second half of the year [6][3] Summary by Sections Commodities Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's forecasts for various commodities show differences from consensus estimates, with notable projections for: - Aluminium: $2,631 per ton vs. consensus $2,602 (1% higher) for CY2025 [9] - Copper: $9,234 per ton vs. consensus $9,397 (2% lower) for CY2025 [9] - Gold: $3,289 per ounce vs. consensus $2,859 (15% higher) for CY2025 [9] Steel Industry - Key drivers for steel demand in China for 2025 include: - Machinery (30%) - Infrastructure (17%) - Residential property (14%) [15] - The steel consumption index shows fluctuations, with a YoY change indicating a decline in apparent consumption [16] Copper Industry - Major demand drivers for copper in 2025 are: - Power (47%) - White goods (15%) - Auto (10%) [19] - The copper consumption index reflects a positive trend in demand, with significant contributions from grid investments [21] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum demand drivers for 2025 include: - Property (22%) - Passenger vehicles (18%) - Power (20%) [23] - The aluminum consumption index indicates a steady increase in demand, particularly from the property sector [25] Infrastructure Spending - Infrastructure spending has shown a 10.8% YoY increase in the first four months of 2025, with significant contributions from utility and transportation sectors [29] - The report highlights that infrastructure investments are partially offsetting the slowdown in property new starts [43] Market Trends - Weekly shipments of cement and rebar in China indicate a steady demand, with a focus on East China [44][45] - Construction new orders are closely monitored, showing trends that correlate with steel and cement demand [49][53]