January 21, 2026 07:18 AM GMT Autos & Shared Mobility | North America 4Q25 Preview: Memory and Commodity Inflation in Focus We highlight 5 key themes for this earnings season: memory shortage, commodity inflation, powertrain mix shift, physical AI, and policy impacts. With all eyes on 2026 guides, we reit. preference for ICE over EV (OW GM, UW RIVN/LCID) and secular growth (OW CVNA). As outlined in our outlook, we entered 2026 with a constructive bias toward ICE oriented OEMs and suppliers, and a more cauti ...

Core Viewpoint - Oakmark Global Fund's fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter highlights its strong performance and investment strategy, focusing on long-term capital appreciation through a diverse portfolio of U.S. and non-U.S. companies, with a notable emphasis on Mondelez International, Inc. [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - In the fourth quarter, Oakmark Global Fund (Investor Class) achieved a return of 5.23%, surpassing the benchmark MSCI World Index's gain of 3.12% [1] Group 2: Mondelez International, Inc. Overview - Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) is identified as a leading global snacking company with significant market shares in crackers, cookies, and chocolate, featuring well-known brands such as Cadbury, Milka, Toblerone, Oreo, and Ritz [3] - As of January 13, 2026, Mondelez's stock closed at $55.94 per share, with a one-month return of 3.94% and a 52-week decline of 1.24%. The company's market capitalization stands at $72.383 billion [2] Group 3: Investment Thesis on Mondelez - The fund believes Mondelez's strong pricing power and potential relief from rising commodity costs will enhance its margins, despite current margin pressures due to commodity inflation [3] - The current market conditions have allowed the fund to acquire Mondelez shares at a discounted valuation compared to historical levels, peers, and the broader market [3] Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - Mondelez International, Inc. was held by 50 hedge fund portfolios at the end of the third quarter, an increase from 48 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest among institutional investors [4]

Group 1 - The January 2025 "State of the Industry Report" provides a comprehensive overview of the trucking, maritime, and intermodal markets, highlighting expected trends in the coming weeks [1] - The report includes detailed data on capacity, volumes, and rates, which are essential for understanding market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The truckload market has tightened significantly post-Thanksgiving, with spot rates and tender rejections increasing rapidly [2] - Reefer and dry van segments have tightened more than the previous year, while flatbed remains relatively stable with minimal volatility [2] - Rejection rates are 2-3 percentage points higher year-over-year, and spot rates have increased by nearly 9% year-over-year in aggregate [2] - Intermodal volume has seen a slight year-over-year increase in Q4, driven by strong service and favorable rate spreads compared to truckload [2] - Manufacturing is currently in contraction, as indicated by an ISM PMI of 48.2 in November, attributed to uncertainty and commodity inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates again due to weakness in the labor market, with unemployment at 4.6% [2] - Housing market data remains limited but indicates a slow recovery, still down year-over-year [2] - The truckload market lacks economic support from demand to indicate a sustained recovery, although supply conditions are tightening [2]

Core Insights - Rising beef costs are a significant concern for quick-service restaurants, with management at Restaurant Brands International Inc. suggesting that the margin pressure is cyclical rather than structural [1][10] - Beef prices have increased at a high-teens rate year over year, impacting franchisee margins, but management attributes this to the U.S. cattle herd rebuilding cycle, indicating that inflation may be peaking [2][10] - Restaurant Brands International is focusing on operational efficiencies and cost controls instead of aggressive price hikes, which helps maintain brand equity and traffic while margins recover [3][4] Company-Specific Analysis - Beef constitutes about 25% of Burger King U.S.'s commodity basket, leading to mid to high-single-digit overall commodity inflation for 2025 [2] - Management's strategy includes avoiding sharp price increases and instead enhancing operational efficiencies, which aligns with franchisees' confidence in long-term brand initiatives [3][4] - The company's shares have gained 0.3% over the past six months, contrasting with a 6.6% decline in the industry [8] Industry Context - Other competitors like McDonald's and Wendy's are also facing similar beef inflation pressures, with McDonald's leveraging its scale and diversified menu to mitigate impacts [5][7] - Wendy's, being more exposed due to its focus on fresh beef, is implementing selective pricing and efficiency initiatives to counteract cost pressures [6][7] - Overall, the industry perceives elevated beef costs as a temporary challenge rather than a permanent reset, indicating a collective strategy to balance value perception with margin protection [7] Financial Metrics - Restaurant Brands International's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 16.9, lower than the industry average of 23.98 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for QSR's 2026 earnings per share has seen an increase over the past 60 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [14]

Industry Overview - The restaurant business and food industry experienced a volatile year due to weak consumer sentiment and tariffs [1] - Value deals and discount campaigns have shown some success in revitalizing brands, but many still face challenges [1] Key Factors to Watch - Commodity inflation, particularly beef prices, will be a significant factor, especially for company-operated fast-casual chains like Chipotle and steak players like Texas Roadhouse [2] - Demand destruction in supermarkets could positively impact companies like Texas Roadhouse and Darden, which spend significantly on beef [3] - The net effect on middle-income consumers will be crucial, with potential consumer engagement expected by the second quarter of 2026 [3] Investment Opportunities - The dining space looks promising, even considering headwinds from GLP1s; casual dining is less affected by negative factors and benefits from early tax relief [4] - Brinker, with its strong execution and value offerings, is a favored name, along with Darden [5] - Value players within the fast-food sector may perform well; McDonald's is mentioned as a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) name [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue growth of 12.8% for the third quarter, driven by a 5.5% increase in average weekly sales and 6.8% store week growth [16] - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 0.8% to $1.25, while restaurant margin dollars increased by 1.1% to $204 million [16][17] - Average weekly sales were over $157,000, with to-go sales representing approximately 13.6% of total weekly sales [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All three brands (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers) delivered same-store sales growth, with Texas Roadhouse averaging nearly $162,000 in weekly sales [12] - Bubba's 33 averaged $119,000 in weekly sales, while Jaggers exceeded $75,000 [12] - Comparable sales increased by 6.1% in the third quarter, driven by 4.3% traffic growth and a 1.8% increase in average check [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened seven company-owned locations in the third quarter and plans to open approximately 30 restaurants across three brands in 2025 [7] - Franchise partners opened two international Texas Roadhouse restaurants during the third quarter, with plans for one more in the fourth quarter [7] - The company expects to open approximately 35 company-owned restaurants in 2026, including 20 Texas Roadhouse, 10 Bubba's 33, and up to five Jaggers [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a people-first focus, value proposition, and operational excellence as key components of its long-term success [6] - The company is committed to expanding its restaurant base while driving top-line growth through guest traffic [10] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its retail presence, with products available in over 120,000 retail outlets [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer behavior remains strong, with no noticeable change following a 1.7% menu price increase [8] - The company is setting initial 2026 commodity inflation guidance at approximately 7%, with expectations of volatility in beef prices [13] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term health of the business, emphasizing a commitment to its mission and values [11] Other Important Information - The company ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $108 million and cash flow from operations of $144 million [14] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be approximately $400 million, excluding the cost of acquiring California franchise restaurants [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on beef inflation outlook - Management indicated that beef inflation might be in the mid-teens if the overall commodity basket is up in high single digits, with expectations based on current trends [23][26] Question: Confidence in transitory vs. structural beef pricing - Management believes the current beef pricing situation is cyclical and transitory, based on industry insights [34][35] Question: Consumer behavior by income and age cohort - Management noted no significant differences in consumer behavior by income or age cohort, emphasizing the value offered across the menu [38][40] Question: Pricing philosophy and managing partner compensation - Management stated that compensation is tied to sales and profits, and they will continue to monitor and adjust as necessary [46][48] Question: Restaurant profit dollars and inflation impact - Management acknowledged the decline in restaurant profit dollars per location and indicated a conservative approach to pricing to protect margins [55][58] Question: New customer acquisition and competition - Management believes they are attracting customers from various segments, including higher-end steakhouses and QSRs, due to their reputation and dining experience [62][64] Question: Franchise acquisitions and CapEx balance - Management confirmed ongoing conversations for franchise acquisitions and explained that CapEx for 2026 is comparable to 2025 due to efficiency in openings [76][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue growth of 12.8% for the third quarter, reaching over $1.4 billion, driven by a 5.5% increase in average weekly sales and 6.8% store week growth [16][6] - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 0.8% to $1.25, while restaurant margin dollars increased by 1.1% to $204 million [16][12] - Comparable sales increased by 6.1%, supported by a 4.3% traffic growth and a 1.8% increase in average check [16][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Texas Roadhouse averaged nearly $162,000 in weekly sales, Bubba's 33 averaged $119,000, and Jaggers averaged over $75,000 [12] - The company opened seven company-owned locations in the third quarter, including two Bubba's 33 and one Jaggers, and plans to open approximately 30 restaurants across three brands in 2025 [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a positive consumer response to its beverage offerings, including mocktails and regional beverage menu items [8][9] - The to-go business continues to show solid momentum, with operators focusing on speed and order accuracy [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its focus on driving top-line growth through guest traffic and restaurant expansion, while also investing in employee development to remain an employer of choice [10][11] - The company plans to acquire its remaining California franchise locations at the beginning of 2026 and expects franchise partners to open 10 new restaurants [8][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that inflation in the third quarter was higher than expected due to beef prices, updating the full-year 2025 commodity inflation guidance to approximately 6% [12][13] - The company remains optimistic about its long-term success, emphasizing its people-first focus and operational excellence [6][11] Other Important Information - The company ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $108 million and cash flow from operations of $144 million, offset by $214 million in capital expenditures, dividend payments, and share repurchases [14][15] - The company is establishing its initial 2026 capital expenditure guidance at approximately $400 million, excluding the cost of acquiring California franchise restaurants [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on beef inflation outlook - Management indicated that they expect mid-teens beef inflation if the commodity basket is up high single digits, with a focus on managing pricing strategies [23][25] Question: Confidence in beef pricing being transitory - Management believes the current beef pricing situation is cyclical and transitory, based on industry insights and cattle cycles [33][34] Question: Consumer behavior by income cohort - Management noted no significant differences in consumer behavior by income or age cohort, emphasizing the value offered across the menu [37][39] Question: Pricing philosophy and managing partner compensation - Management discussed their conservative pricing approach to protect top-line growth and ensure fair compensation for managing partners [44][46] Question: Unit growth and market expansion for Bubba's - Management confirmed that most growth for Bubba's will occur in existing markets, with a focus on maintaining strong partnerships [86][88] Question: Cash uses and franchise acquisitions - Management stated that approximately 30 franchises remain for potential acquisition after completing the California acquisition [75][76] Question: Labor and operating expenses outlook - Management expects continued leverage on labor and operating expenses if top-line trends remain strong [81][82] Question: Impact of grocery store beef prices on customer behavior - Management acknowledged that high grocery store beef prices are likely driving customers to dine out more, recognizing the value of their steak offerings [84][85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue growth of 12.8% for Q3 2025, driven by a 5.5% increase in average weekly sales and 6.8% store week growth [13] - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 0.8% to $1.25 [13] - Restaurant margin dollars increased by 1.1% to $204 million, while restaurant margin as a percentage of total sales decreased by 168 basis points year-over-year to 14.3% [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Texas Roadhouse averaged nearly $162,000 in weekly sales, Bubba's 33 averaged $119,000, and Jaggers averaged over $75,000 [10] - Comparable sales increased by 6.1% in Q3, with traffic growth of 4.3% and an average check increase of 1.8% [13] - The to-go business represented approximately 13.6% of total weekly sales, averaging $21,500 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened seven company-owned locations in Q3, including two Bubba's 33 and one Jaggers, and plans to open approximately 30 restaurants across three brands in 2025 [5][6] - Franchise partners opened two international Texas Roadhouse restaurants during Q3 and plan to open ten new restaurants in total, including six international locations [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a people-first focus, operational excellence, and a strong value proposition to drive long-term success [4] - The company is on track to open approximately 35 company-owned restaurants in 2026, including 20 Texas Roadhouse, 10 Bubba's 33, and five Jaggers [6] - The company continues to invest in technology, with 95% of restaurants using a digital kitchen and upgraded guest management systems [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer behavior remains strong, with no noticeable change in guest behavior following a 1.7% menu price increase [6] - The company expects commodity inflation to be approximately 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026, with significant volatility in beef prices anticipated [10][11] - Management remains optimistic about maintaining top-line growth through guest traffic and restaurant expansion despite inflationary pressures [8][9] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with a cash balance of $108 million and cash flow from operations of $144 million, offset by $214 million in capital expenditures, dividend payments, and share repurchases [11] - The company is prioritizing new store development and maintaining existing restaurants, with capital expenditure guidance set at approximately $400 million for 2026 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for beef inflation and beverage program - Management indicated that beef inflation is expected to be in the mid-teens, with a focus on mocktails and beverage offerings to cater to changing consumer preferences [21][26] Question: Confidence in beef inflation being transitory - Management believes the current beef inflation is cyclical and transitory, based on industry insights and purchasing department evaluations [32][34] Question: Consumer trends by income and age cohort - Management noted no significant differences in consumer behavior by income or age cohort, attributing strong traffic growth to the value offered [36][38] Question: Pricing philosophy and impact on compensation - Management emphasized a conservative pricing approach to protect top-line growth and manage partner compensation effectively [44][46] Question: Restaurant profit dollars and inflation management - Management acknowledged the decline in restaurant profit dollars per location but remains confident in long-term growth strategies [52][56] Question: New customer acquisition and competition - Management believes they are attracting customers from various segments, including higher-end steakhouses and QSRs, due to their quality offerings and restaurant experience [60][61] Question: Franchise acquisitions and CapEx balance - Management confirmed ongoing conversations for franchise acquisitions and explained that capital expenditures remain stable despite increased openings due to efficiency [71][74]

Core Insights - The company has experienced sequential growth in same restaurant traffic and sales for four consecutive quarters, with a 2.6% increase in traffic for the latest quarter [4][3] - The restaurant level operating profit margin improved to 19.7%, up from 18.9%, indicating effective management of commodity costs [3] - Despite a 5% price increase implemented in late August, restaurant sales still grew by 4%, suggesting that consumers are not reducing their spending significantly [6][7] Consumer Behavior - The company targets a higher income demographic, which has helped mitigate the impact of economic pressures on consumer spending [5] - There has been no observed change in consumer behavior regarding check sizes or spending patterns, indicating resilience among its customer base [4][7] - The company has maintained a conservative pricing strategy, averaging a 3.5% price increase for the year, aligning with typical inflation rates [8] Labor and Market Conditions - The company has successfully opened 21 new restaurants across 14 states without significant labor issues, indicating a stable staffing situation [10] - There has been no noticeable impact from broader economic challenges, such as layoffs or government shutdowns, on consumer behavior in the markets where the company operates [10][11]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) is experiencing challenges due to commodity inflation, particularly in beef, leading to a downward revision of its FY2026 EPS from $1.82 to $1.79, reflecting a 22% year-over-year decline [1][2] - Evercore ISI has reiterated an In Line rating on Conagra while reducing the price target from $24 to $23, which represents a valuation of 12 times the projected 2027 EPS [1][3] Financial Performance - The FY2026 EPS revision indicates a significant decrease, with the new estimate at $1.79 compared to the previous $1.82 [1] - The price target reduction to $23 suggests a slight discount compared to Conagra's five-year average PE ratio of 13x, which has fluctuated between 10x and 16x [3] Market Position and Strategy - Conagra is navigating a year of change, facing rising expenses, potential tariffs, impacts from divesting brands, and investments in pricing and promotional strategies [2] - The company is expected to focus on regaining organic sales growth, particularly in the Frozen and Snacks segments, which account for approximately two-thirds of total sales [3] Company Overview - Conagra Brands operates in the packaged consumer products sector with four main segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice [4]