Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) is one of the S&P 500 stocks with a low PE ratio. On September 24, Evercore ISI reiterated an In Line rating on CAG while slashing the target price from $24 to $23. Evercore lowered its price target following a drop in its FY2026 EPS from $1.82 to $1.79, reflecting a 22% year-over-year dip. The firm pointed to higher commodity inflation, particularly in beef, as the main factor leading to the downward revision. Commodity Inflation Concerns Prompt Evercore ISI to Cut Conagr ...

Core Viewpoint - Argus downgraded J.M. Smucker from Buy to Hold due to ongoing struggles with volume growth and economic uncertainty impacting sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - J.M. Smucker is facing challenges with volume growth amid economic uncertainty, leading to price increases that are not sufficiently offsetting commodity inflation [1] - Rising green coffee prices and tariffs are exerting additional pressure on the company's margins [1] - Smucker shares are trading at 12 times projected FY27 EPS, which is lower than the peer average of 17, indicating a reasonable valuation under current inflationary conditions and weak coffee margins [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The divestiture of slower-growth pet food brands and the acquisition of Hostess Brands are seen as positive moves that could enhance cross-promotional efforts with Smucker's existing portfolio [2] - The company is expanding its Uncrustables brand into convenience stores as part of a revenue synergy strategy [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Argus indicated that an upgrade could be considered if there are signs of sustainable margin and volume growth in the future [3]

Core Insights - Mondelez International (MDLZ) is facing significant challenges due to record cocoa inflation, impacting gross profit despite a 3.1% increase in organic revenues in Q1 2025 driven by strong pricing in its chocolate portfolio [1][8] - The company has implemented a multipronged mitigation strategy focusing on pricing, revenue growth management, and strategic pack architecture, which has shown minimal disruption and maintained consumer loyalty to core brands [2][5] - There are concerns regarding Mondelez's ability to sustain profitability amid prolonged commodity inflation, with a 3.5% decline in volume mix attributed to pricing elasticity and planned pack downsizing [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Mondelez reported a 3.1% organic revenue growth, primarily from pricing gains in its chocolate segment, but experienced a decline in gross profit and adjusted earnings per share due to soaring cocoa prices [1][8] - Operating income in developed markets, particularly North America, was negatively affected by cocoa cost pressures and soft consumer demand, while Europe saw pricing success but still faced operating income erosion [3][4] Future Outlook - Mondelez is positioned to manage cocoa volatility effectively, with strong pricing strategies, cost controls, and resilient brands supporting its margin strategy [5] - The company anticipates benefiting from improved leverage as cocoa markets stabilize, allowing for reinvestment in long-term growth [5] Stock Performance - Mondelez shares have increased by 13.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry and broader Consumer Staples sector [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.95, above the industry average of 15.72, indicating market expectations of business stability [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez's earnings has been revised upward, with current fiscal year estimates at $3.02 per share and next fiscal year at $3.33 per share, reflecting positive sentiment [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, the company generated over $1.4 billion in revenue, with a same-store sales increase of 3.5% and positive traffic growth [7][21] - Revenue growth was reported at 9.6%, driven by a 2.4% increase in average unit volume and 7.1% store week growth [21] - Diluted earnings per share increased by 1% to $1.7, while restaurant margin dollars increased by 4.7% to $239 million [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weekly sales averaged $167,000 at Texas Roadhouse, $123,000 at Bubba's 33, and $71,000 at Jaggers, all showing positive same-store sales and traffic growth [15] - Average weekly sales for the first quarter were over $163,000, with To Go sales representing approximately 13.6% of total weekly sales [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened eight company-owned restaurants in the first quarter, with plans to open approximately 30 company-owned restaurants this year [9][10] - Franchise openings are expected to include five international Texas Roadhouses and two domestic Jaggers [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on delivering legendary food and service while navigating external economic factors [8] - Technology initiatives are progressing, with 65% of restaurants using a digital kitchen and 70% having upgraded guest management systems [11][12] - The company is committed to maintaining its pricing strategy, which is below inflation levels for both commodities and labor [32][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current operating environment, citing strong demand for the brand and positive sales trends [8][15] - The company anticipates a full-year commodity inflation of approximately 4%, influenced by updated expectations for beef costs and tariffs [19][95] Other Important Information - The company celebrated the success of its operators at the annual Managing Partner Conference, emphasizing the importance of community engagement [26] - The company is focusing on improving the guest experience through new beverage menus tailored to regional preferences [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing strategy in relation to inflation - The company confirmed a 3.1% price increase in the first quarter, which is expected to drop to 2.3% in the following quarters, indicating pricing below inflation [32][34] Question: Labor leverage and hours - Labor hours grew at approximately 35% of comparable traffic growth, maintaining productivity despite challenges [40][41] Question: Restaurant margin performance - Management acknowledged a slight decline in restaurant profit dollars per week and emphasized the importance of monitoring this metric throughout the year [45][47] Question: To Go sales performance - The company noted improvements in To Go sales due to operational enhancements and better packaging, with margins being neutral to slightly positive [101][103] Question: Commodity inflation outlook - The company expects commodity inflation to remain under pressure, with specific guidance of approximately 4% for the full year [19][95] Question: Franchise acquisitions - The company maintains an active dialogue with franchisees regarding potential acquisitions but has no imminent plans beyond those already disclosed [140][142]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, the company reported revenue of over $1.4 billion, representing a 9.6% increase year-over-year, driven by a 2.4% increase in average unit volume and 7.1% store week growth [19][5] - The diluted earnings per share increased by 1% to $1.7, while restaurant margin dollars increased by 4.7% to $239 million [19][20] - Cash flow from operations was $238 million, with $221 million in cash at the end of the quarter [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average weekly sales were $167,000 at Texas Roadhouse, $123,000 at Bubba's 33, and $71,000 at Jaggers, all showing positive same-store sales and traffic growth [13] - Same-store sales increased by 3.5% in the first quarter, with traffic growth of 1.1% and a 2.4% increase in average check [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened eight company-owned restaurants in the first quarter, with plans to open approximately 30 company-owned restaurants this year [6][7] - Franchise openings are expected to include five international Texas Roadhouses and two domestic Jaggers [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on delivering legendary food and service while navigating external economic factors [5] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining operational excellence and community engagement as part of their long-term growth strategy [23] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current demand for their brands, despite external challenges such as tariffs and inflation [5][14] - The company anticipates a full-year commodity inflation of approximately 4%, influenced by updated expectations for beef costs and tariffs [16][89] Other Important Information - The company is implementing technology upgrades, with 65% of restaurants using a digital kitchen and 70% having a new guest management system [9][10] - The company celebrated the achievements of its top operators during the annual Managing Partner Conference, reinforcing its commitment to operational excellence [2][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing strategy in relation to inflation - Management confirmed a 3.1% price increase in Q1, which is expected to drop to 2.3% in the following quarters, indicating they are pricing below inflation [29][30] Question: Labor leverage and hours - Management clarified that labor hours grew at 35% of traffic growth, maintaining productivity despite challenges [37][38] Question: Restaurant margin performance - Management acknowledged a slight decline in restaurant profit dollars per week and emphasized the importance of monitoring this metric throughout the year [42][44] Question: Consumer behavior and sales trends - Management attributed sales fluctuations to weather conditions and noted a strong rebound in March, April, and May [68][69] Question: Franchise acquisitions and future plans - Management stated there are no immediate plans for further franchise roll-ups but maintains active dialogue with existing franchisees [135][137] Question: Bar menu relaunch and profitability - Management indicated that the bar menu changes were driven by consumer demand and are expected to enhance profitability [141][144]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total first quarter revenues were $282.2 million, an increase of 16.4% compared to the previous year [21] - Same restaurant sales growth was positive at 0.7%, while same restaurant traffic was down by 0.7% [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $22.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins slipping to 8.1% from 11.8% [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 13 new system-wide restaurants during the quarter, including 10 company-owned and 3 franchise-owned [27] - Restaurant level operating profit margin decreased to 16.5% from 20.8% year-over-year [25] - Food and beverage expenses rose to 23.8% of sales compared to 21.8% in the same quarter last year, driven by commodity inflation [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant opportunity for expansion in the New England market, with successful openings in Massachusetts and plans for further locations in New Hampshire and Tennessee [12][13] - The Florida market has outperformed the rest of the country, with continued new restaurant openings [92] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growth through new restaurant openings and enhancing customer experiences, with a target of 59 to 64 net new system-wide restaurants for the year [30] - Strategic marketing efforts have been enhanced to drive brand awareness and customer engagement, particularly through digital and social media [10][11] - The company aims to maintain a long-term target of 18-20% on restaurant level operating profit margins [110] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatile macro environment affecting consumer demand and input costs, but expressed optimism about achieving positive traffic growth for the year [6][19] - The company expects commodity inflation to peak in the second quarter, with a forecast of high single-digit inflation for the full year [28][30] - Management remains confident in the brand's competitive positioning and customer service experience despite current margin pressures [19][90] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of 16 restaurants in North and South Carolina and three in Missouri, enhancing its presence in key states [13] - The company is implementing a "surprise and delight" initiative to enhance customer loyalty, which has had a short-term impact on margins [17][74] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the comment that sales turned positive in March and then traffic turned positive in April? - Management noted that traffic trends improved sequentially, with positive dine-in traffic improvement for all four quarters last year [36] Question: Can you talk more about the trade-off between driving traffic through third-party actions and other initiatives at a lower margin? - Management expressed confidence in the effectiveness of their strategies to drive traffic, despite cost pressures [38] Question: What are the learnings from the increased media spend and engagement following new media efforts? - Management reported positive results from the new media efforts, contributing to improved traffic trends [44] Question: Can you comment on the peak of commodity costs in Q2? - Management indicated that the peak is expected due to crop-related issues and rebuilding of egg flocks, but does not foresee this as a permanent issue [46] Question: How is the Florida market performing relative to the system? - Management stated that Florida has been performing well and continues to open new restaurants there [92]