David Gardner: Risk. A lot of people talk about it, but especially in the investment world, I've never found that talk very satisfying. First of all, how do you, how do I, how do they, define risk? What does it mean, even to say that's a risky stock? The definitions are often unclear. Then some professional analysts in the risk section of their stock research will say stuff like medium. As in, this is a medium risk stock. What does that mean? Well, more than a decade ago, I developed a 25 point risk rating ...

Core Insights - The podcast discusses a 25-point risk rating system developed by David Gardner to provide a more concrete and measurable understanding of investment risk, moving away from vague terms like "medium risk" [4][5]. Group 1: Risk Assessment Framework - The risk rating system consists of 25 yes or no questions, where each "no" adds a point, indicating higher risk with a higher score [5]. - The framework can be applied not only to individual stocks but also to entire portfolios by calculating a weighted average risk score [5]. - The discussion emphasizes that understanding risk is about studying quality and that lower-risk stocks can sometimes yield greater returns [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Etsy - Etsy reported a net income of $182 million over the past 12 months and $75 million in the last quarter, indicating profitability [12]. - The company had a free cash flow of approximately $205 million in the last quarter and $635 million over the past year [16]. - Etsy has over 93 million buyers and 8.5 million sellers, ensuring no single customer accounts for more than 20% of its revenue [22]. - However, Etsy's net promoter score is -7, indicating questionable customer sentiment, and it has seen a decline in active buyers and gross merchandise sales [26]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Duolingo - Duolingo achieved a net income of approximately $386 million over the past 12 months and was profitable in the last quarter, aided by a one-time tax benefit [13]. - The company reported a free cash flow of about $350 million, growing by 20% year over year [17]. - Duolingo has over 50 million daily active users, with 9.5 million being paid subscribers, indicating a diversified revenue base [25]. - The brand enjoys over 50% awareness in the U.S. language learning market, supported by strong word-of-mouth marketing [21]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Etsy did not increase its sales by 10%-40% annually in the previous three years, with only single-digit growth in 2023 and 2024 [30]. - Duolingo, on the other hand, has seen annual revenue growth of at least 40% over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 42% [32]. - Etsy has more debt than cash and has issued convertible debt, raising concerns about its ability to operate independently without external funding [35]. - Duolingo has a strong balance sheet with over $1.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, indicating it can operate independently [36]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Etsy faces significant competition from larger companies like Amazon and Shopify, which have greater financial resources [45]. - Duolingo is considered a market leader with strong brand recognition, surpassing competitors like Babel and Rosetta Stone in user-based revenue share [46]. - While there are no true disruptors in Etsy's space, smaller alternatives exist, indicating a competitive environment [48]. - Duolingo faces potential disruption from AI technologies, although no direct competition currently exists [49]. Group 6: Stock Metrics - Etsy has a market cap of approximately $6 billion, which is below the $10 billion threshold [57]. - Duolingo's market cap is around $7 billion, also below the $10 billion mark [59]. - Etsy's beta is 0.85, indicating lower volatility compared to the market, while Duolingo's beta has fluctuated significantly, indicating higher volatility [61][62].

Financial Performance & Goals - Vital Farms aims to achieve $1 billion in net sales by 2027[27], with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% to 14% and a gross margin of approximately 35%[28] - In Q2 2025, net revenue increased by 25.4% to $184.8 million compared to Q2 2024[53], driven by both price/mix benefits ($15.7 million) and volume-related revenue growth ($21.7 million)[55] - Gross profit for Q2 2025 was $71.8 million, representing 38.9% of net revenue[53], while adjusted EBITDA was $29.9 million, or 16.2% of net revenue[53] - Vital Farms updates its 2025 guidance with net revenue projected to be at least $770 million, adjusted EBITDA at least $110 million, and capital expenditures between $90 million and $110 million[61] Supply Chain & Distribution - Vital Farms works with a network of over 500 family farms[20] and is expanding its distribution to meet growing consumer demand[40], with products in over 23,500 retail stores[23] - The company has a strong pipeline of farmers interested in working with them, with 8 times more interested farmers than farms needed in the next four quarters[35] Market Position & Consumer Behavior - Consumer metrics are improving, with household penetration increasing to 31% in Q2 2025[38] - Vital Farms' shell egg buy rate is on an upward trend, reaching $37.80 in Q2 2025[38] - Private label expansion in the pasture-raised category is not significantly impacting Vital Farms' market share, with brand shifting accounting for only approximately 1% of private label growth[45]

Company Overview - Safe Harbor Financial, a fintech leader, provides financial services and credit facilities for the regulated cannabis industry [1][5] - The company has facilitated over $25 billion in deposit transactions across more than 41 states and US territories with regulated cannabis markets [5] Event Participation - Terry Mendez, CEO of Safe Harbor, will participate as a featured "Conscious Capitalist" at the Psychedelic Science 2025 conference [1][2] - The conference is the largest of its kind, bringing together various stakeholders in the psychedelic and cannabis industries [2] Workshop Details - The Conscious Capitalism Workshop, likened to a "Shark Tank" format, focuses on mentorship and allows startups to pitch ideas to impact investors [3] - Mendez will provide real-time feedback and insights on values-based business building in regulated sectors [3][4] Company Goals - Safe Harbor aims to provide cannabis operators with affordable access to expertise and solutions, enhancing operational efficiency and cost control [5]