US stock futures added to losses early on Monday amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence after Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration has threatened him with a criminal indictment. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.6%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) sank roughly 0.8%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way lower, tumbling 1.1% on the heels of record closing highs for Wall Street stocks. Investors were rattled late Sunday after Powell released a s ...

US stock futures sank early on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration has threatened him with a criminal indictment, reigniting concerns over the central bank's independence. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.5%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved down 0.5%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way lower, down 0.8% on the heels of record closing highs for Wall Street stocks. Investors were rattled late Sunday evening after Fe ...

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's consumer inflation rate decreased to 2.9% in November, remaining above the 2% target for the 44th consecutive month, which strengthens the prospects of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1] - Core inflation remained unchanged at 3% in October, aligning with economists' estimates, while the "core-core" inflation rate fell to 3% from 3.1% [2] - Rice inflation slowed to 37.1%, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, after experiencing over 50 years' highest price growth earlier this year [3] Group 2: Bank of Japan's Policy and Economic Growth - The BOJ is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level since 1995, as it concludes its policy meeting, despite concerns about the weak Japanese economy, which contracted 0.6% quarter on quarter and 2.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter [2][4] - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized the need for proactive spending to boost growth and tax revenues, advocating for looser monetary policy and criticizing BOJ's rate hikes [4] - BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe stated that raising Japan's neutral interest rate is essential for balancing economic growth and inflation, while cautioning against premature rate hikes [5][6] Group 3: Currency Impact - Following the inflation data release, the yen strengthened slightly, trading at 155.53 [7]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight increase, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also up 0.2% as investors analyze the implications of recent jobs data on Federal Reserve policy and the US economy [1] - Oil prices surged over 2% following President Trump's order for a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading above $56 per barrel and Brent futures exceeding $60 [2][11] Employment Data Insights - Wall Street is seeking clarity from the November jobs report, which revealed a higher-than-expected number of jobs added alongside the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [3] - Analysts caution that the jobs data may have a significant margin of error due to a prolonged government shutdown affecting data collection, leaving the odds of a January rate cut at 25% [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Key Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed's John Williams and Fed governor Chris Waller, are expected to provide insights on future monetary policy [5] - The market is anticipating the upcoming consumer inflation data, which is crucial for the Fed's rate decision next month [6] Technology Sector Focus - Investor interest in tech stocks remains strong, particularly with Micron Technology's quarterly results expected, as concerns about the AI trade continue to influence the sector [7] - Tesla's stock has positively impacted the tech sector, achieving its first record close in about a year due to growing enthusiasm over its robotaxi ambitions [8] Housing Market Update - Homebuilder Lennar's stock fell over 3% after reporting a decline in fourth-quarter profit, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market due to affordability issues [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America analysts assert that President Trump's tariffs have significantly increased consumer inflation, with no debate on this matter [1]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Since the introduction of "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, trade deals have been negotiated with some partners, but tariffs on countries like China and Canada remain high [2]. - Trump claims that tariffs will help rebalance the trade deficit and encourage domestic shopping, leading to more manufacturing jobs in the US [2]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Economists warn that the costs of tariffs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, with S&P Global estimating that Trump's tariffs will cost businesses $1.2 trillion this year [3]. - Analysts believe there is strong evidence that tariffs have contributed to higher inflation for consumers [3]. Group 3: Inflation Metrics - Tariffs are estimated to account for 30 to 50 basis points of the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate, which tracks price changes for goods and services [4]. - Consumers have reportedly borne 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs to date, indicating that tariffs may continue to exert upward pressure on inflation in the future [4]. - The PCE price index increased by 2.7% year-on-year in August, reflecting a rise of 0.1% over the previous two months and 0.2% compared to May [5].

Group 1: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar increased by 0.38% against the yen, reaching 152.525 yen, while the U.S. dollar index remained nearly flat at 98.925 [1] - The yen is under pressure due to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which have contributed to rising oil prices [4][5] - Domestic factors, including the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's prime minister, are also impacting the yen, which is approaching a seven-month low of 153.29 yen per dollar [6] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - New U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have led to a nearly 5% increase in oil prices [4] - Chinese state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil from the sanctioned companies, further boosting oil prices [5] - The rise in oil prices is affecting currencies tied to oil imports, particularly the yen, as Japan is a major oil importer [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data is significant for assessing consumer spending and growth, despite the Federal Reserve's shift in focus to the labor market [2][3] - The inflation data will assist the U.S. Social Security Administration with its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 [2]

Consumer inflation in Tokyo unexpectedly held steady as a result of temporary factors, in data backing the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to raising its benchmark interest rate https://t.co/6XcHvWwAQD ...

Company Overview - Oracle's cloud business revenue is projected to reach $18 billion this year, reflecting a 77% year-over-year increase, with expectations to grow to $144 billion by the start of the next decade [1] - The company has a market capitalization nearing $1 trillion, indicating its significant position in the tech industry [3] AI Market Position - Oracle is positioning itself as a utility provider for AI companies, offering essential resources for building and running compute-intensive models, while maintaining compatibility with major cloud providers like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud [2] - The company is experiencing substantial benefits from the AI boom, supported by concrete financial data rather than speculative projections [3][8] Financial Performance - Following a strong earnings report, Oracle's stock surged by 36%, significantly increasing the net worth of its chairman and co-founder, Larry Ellison, who briefly became the richest man in the world [4] - Oracle has a backlog of deals valued at $455 billion, including a partnership in the Stargate AI project with OpenAI and SoftBank, providing more certainty compared to many other AI companies [6] Operational Considerations - While the backlog of deals (remaining performance obligations) is promising, it does not guarantee revenue, as contracts can be canceled and the timing of fulfillment is uncertain [7]