Summary of US Consumer Chartbook 3Q 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US consumer market, analyzing labor market trends, income, consumption, sentiment, and credit conditions. Key Points Labor Market & Income - Real labor income growth has decreased from an average of nearly 3.5% in 2024 to just over 2% in 2025, with expectations for further decline due to slowing labor demand and rising inflation [3][12][25] - Employment growth has slowed significantly, with a 3-month average payroll growth now at 35,000, down from 168,000 last year [11][33] - The middle-income cohort, primarily in manufacturing, has seen the weakest employment growth but maintained wage growth of over 4.2% year-on-year [18][23] - The lowest income cohort's wage growth has weakened to just above inflation at 3.2% year-on-year as of June [19][25] - Real disposable personal income growth is projected to slow from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 [8][57] Consumption & Sentiment - Consumption is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, with real consumption growth forecasted to drop to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, down from 3.1% in 2024 [4][7] - Goods consumption is anticipated to decline more sharply due to tariff-induced price increases, particularly affecting durable goods [79] - Consumer sentiment has shown some recovery but remains below last year's levels, with employment expectations continuing to soften [60][62] - Spending intentions for back-to-school shopping are similar to last year, with a net 34% of consumers intending to spend more [66] Credit & Balance Sheet - Household debt has increased, with consumer revolving credit growth slowing, and debt-to-disposable income ratios remaining below pre-COVID levels [108][120] - Delinquencies in auto loans are rising, particularly among subprime borrowers, while credit card delinquencies have stabilized slightly [120] - The personal saving rate was steady at 4.7%, reflecting a drawdown of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic [92] Additional Insights - The report highlights the impact of inflation on lower-income cohorts, which tend to experience higher inflation rates due to their consumption patterns [26] - The fiscal bill is expected to add around 15 basis points to consumption in 2026, but this is minor compared to the negative impacts from trade and immigration policies [4] - The wealth effect on consumer spending is noted to be limited, with consumers increasing spending by less than 10 cents for every dollar increase in wealth [84][85] This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the US consumer market, highlighting potential risks and opportunities for investors.

June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America Weakness still lies ahead This week's inflation data showed no clear signs of a tariff push, but we expect higher goods inflation in coming months. Slower core services may give the Fed confidence that the inflation pickup will be transitory. With higher inflation ahead, weaker consumption growth is still in front of us. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT | | | | US Economics Weekly North America | Morgan Sta ...