Group 1 - Free cash flow margins are not the sole determinant of defensiveness, value, or growth; stability in cash flow margins across economic cycles is essential for a stock to qualify as defensive [1] - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1] - The approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, with a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1]

Futures head higher at the end of a week in which markets were buffeted by tariffs, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings. Get market insights on Bloomberg Surveillance. @tomkeene @LisaMateoTV are LIVE on YouTube. https://t.co/m9IglISGoz ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the experience of the analyst in leading teams for model validation and stress testing, showcasing a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The collaboration between the analyst and their research partner aims to provide high-quality, data-driven insights for investors [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous risk management and a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, which are crucial for providing actionable investment ideas [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the combination of fundamental and technical analysis to uncover high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The focus is on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1] Group 1 - The company has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research and financial modeling [1] - The company has a strong background in risk management, model validation, and stress testing [1] - The approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] Group 2 - The company aims to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights through co-authored investment research [1] - There is a particular interest in identifying macroeconomic trends and analyzing corporate earnings [1] - The goal is to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market [1]

Market Concerns & Tariff Impact - The primary concern revolves around the ultimate impact of tariff uncertainty on economic growth, both domestically and internationally [2][3][4] - Tariffs are projected to be significantly higher than last year's 25%, potentially reaching high single digits or even higher across the economy [3] - International trade may suffer as slower corporate earnings growth occurs due to decreased demand caused by tariffs [4] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be felt, suggesting potential future headwinds for corporations [5] Economic Outlook & Inflation - The economy is currently holding up well, as evidenced by the labor market and inflation data [6][7] - Inflation numbers are expected to rise in the July and August readings, with acceleration later in the year [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold at the July meeting and potentially the following meeting due to uncertainty about inflation [7] Corporate Earnings - Second-quarter earnings are expected to be favorable, with anticipated growth of only 2% to 3% [8] - Third-quarter reports are expected to reveal more concerns from companies regarding coping with tariffs [8] Cryptocurrency - Crypto and Bitcoin are viewed as a play on inflation and the dollar, functioning as a currency [9] - They can serve as a hedge against inflation and dollar uncertainty, similar to gold, but lack cash flow [10] - Investing in companies like Coinbase is suggested, as they can profit regardless of Bitcoin's price fluctuations [11]

Join us now. Sylvia Jablonsky, Defiance ETF CEO uh and chief me chief investment officer. I I'm I'm feeling I'm feeling you have not been that negative.No. Throughout all this, I I can remember I it's sad because I look at some people and I remember how wrong they were. Yeah.And we have a lot of people on that when I look at now that's all I can think about and I'm not sure why they're here. Glad I'm glad I'm not one of them for You're not one of them. You are not one of them.Why didn't you Um it wasn't a h ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the experience of the analyst in leading teams for model validation and stress testing, showcasing a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The collaboration between the analyst and their research partner aims to provide high-quality, data-driven insights for investors [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous risk management and a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, which are crucial for providing actionable investment ideas [1]

Monetary Policy & Tariffs - The market initially anticipated a rate cut in July, but it's now less likely due to tariff uncertainty [2] - The Fed is likely to wait until August 1st to assess tariff rates and economic impact before potentially acting in September [3] - The speaker suggests that the "price shock" from tariffs is largely in the past, as businesses have had time to adjust [5][6] Economic Outlook - US demand is solid but sluggish, with GDP around 1% [2] - Fiscal policy is now neutral or stimulative, reducing recession odds [7] - Deficits and the 10-year Treasury yield are expected to remain elevated [8] Business & Market Impact - Companies are expected to adapt to low to mid-teens tariffs if the rates are clear [3] - Corporate earnings are expected to be resilient, supported by stimulus measures [8] - Accelerated depreciation, tax on tips, and tax on overtime should provide a tailwind for businesses [9] - Businesses are cautious due to uncertainty but relatively optimistic about the future [9]

Core Insights - Grab Holdings Limited is currently experiencing a pivotal moment, with a focus on sustained profitability and monetization metrics, particularly in the fintech sector [1] Financial Performance - The company's share prices have reacted positively following the announcement of its first quarter results, indicating investor confidence in its financial trajectory [1] Market Position - Grab is positioned at a crossroads, suggesting potential strategic decisions that could influence its future growth and market presence [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.