Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 59 cents, reflecting a 3.3% decrease year-over-year [1][8] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is projected at $2.9 billion, indicating a 1.8% decline from the previous year [1][8] - For fiscal 2025, the overall earnings guidance suggests a decline of 12.7% in EPS to $2.33, with organic net sales growth expected to decrease by 2% [1][4] Financial Performance - The adjusted operating margin for fiscal 2025 is projected at 14.4%, down from previous levels, with adjusted earnings forecasted at $2.35 per share, a decrease from $2.67 in fiscal 2024 [4] - The trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise for CAG averages almost -0.1% [1] Cost Pressures - Persistent cost inflation, particularly in input and protein costs, continues to impact margin performance, with an expected adjusted gross margin contraction of 170 basis points year-over-year [2] - Rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, including advertising and promotional spending, are further squeezing profitability [2] Market Conditions - The Foodservice segment is under pressure due to weaker commercial traffic and a sluggish recovery in out-of-home dining, reflecting broader industry challenges [3] - Currency volatility due to international exposure adds additional pressure on the company's performance [3]

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) and B2Gold Corp. (BTG) are both international gold mining companies with operations in the Americas, focusing on emerging markets [1] - Gold prices have increased approximately 26% this year, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [2] - Both companies are positioned to benefit from the favorable gold price environment, but they face challenges from rising costs [24] Aris Mining Highlights - Aris Mining has shown an 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for Q1, aiming for a full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces [4][8] - The Segovia Operations in Colombia are crucial for production growth, with expansion projects expected to increase production rates significantly in the second half of 2025 [5] - The company has a strong balance sheet with a cash balance of $240 million and generated $40 million in cash flow in Q1, supporting its growth initiatives [7] - However, Aris Mining's all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increased to $1,570 per ounce, indicating a decline in cost efficiency [8][9] B2Gold Highlights - B2Gold is on track to produce between 970,000 and 1,075,000 ounces of gold in 2025, benefiting from new projects like the Goose Project and the Gramalote Project [12][13] - The company has a solid financial position with cash and cash equivalents of $330 million and a low long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 11.4% [14] - B2Gold offers a dividend yield of 2.2% and has a payout ratio of 44%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [14] - The company's AISC rose to $1,533 per ounce, reflecting cost inflation pressures across its operations [15] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Aris Mining's stock has increased by 89.1%, while B2Gold's stock has risen by 45.9%, compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 56.6% [16] - Aris Mining is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.44, which is a 67.2% discount to the industry average of 13.52X [19] - B2Gold is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 7.15, which is below the industry average but at a premium to Aris Mining [20] Earnings Growth Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aris Mining's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year growth of 55.7% and 226.5%, respectively [21] - B2Gold's 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 56.2% and 231.3%, respectively [22]

Core Insights - Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) is facing increasing input cost pressures, particularly in protein categories such as chicken and red meat, due to heightened demand and disruptions related to Asian flu in Europe [1][7] - The company's management indicated that pricing actions are being implemented but will likely lag behind cost inflation in the near term, leading to a revised lower adjusted EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Nomad Foods reported a gross margin increase of 90 basis points year-over-year to 27.8%, but adjusted EBITDA declined by 1.8%, indicating early signs of margin pressure [2][7] - The updated guidance for adjusted EBITDA growth for 2025 has been revised downward to a range of 0% to 2%, from a previous range of 2% to 4% [2] Market Position and Strategy - Nomad Foods has a history of pricing to recover cost increases, but prolonged inflation in protein inputs may challenge consumer elasticity, particularly in value-seeking markets like the UK [3] - The company must balance cost recovery with demand retention while maintaining brand strength to offset margin pressure in the upcoming quarters [3] Peer Comparison - Conagra Brands (CAG) is also facing elevated protein and input costs, resulting in a 389-basis-point adjusted gross margin decline in Q3 fiscal 2025, and is focusing on portfolio restructuring [4] - Lamb Weston reported 9% global volume growth in Q3 fiscal 2025 and is executing over 30 strategic projects, despite a 5% decline in price/mix due to strategic pricing adjustments [5] Valuation Metrics - Nomad Foods shares have decreased approximately 5.5% in the past month, compared to a 1.7% decline in the industry [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.89X, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.77X [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nomad Foods' current financial-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively [11] - For Q2 2025, the consensus estimate for sales is $892.71 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 5.54% [12]

Key Takeaways TJX's Q1 selling, general and administrative rose to 19.4% of sales, mainly due to higher store wages. Q2 gross margin is projected to fall 40 bps due to tariffs on goods already in transit. TJX expects fiscal 2026 gross margin of 30.4-30.5%, down from the prior year's level.The TJX Companies (TJX) is feeling the strain of elevated operating costs, particularly in wages and sourcing. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose to 19.4% of sal ...

Key Takeaways CPB is down 20.4% YTD, trailing the market, its sector and industry amid broad underperformance. Weak demand in the Snacks segment hurt organic sales and is recovering slower than expected. Margin pressures from inflation, higher costs and flat pricing have pushed CPB downward.The Campbell's Company (CPB) has endured a challenging run in 2025, with its stock down 20.4% year to date. This sharp decline starkly contrasts with the broader market, underperforming the S&P 500’s modest 1.8% growth ...

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's first-quarter 2025 results indicate significant increases in unit costs, with gold costs applicable to sales rising 16% year over year to $1,227 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) reaching $1,651 per ounce, reflecting a 13% sequential and 15% year-over-year increase [1][6] Cost Trends - Newmont expects gold AISC for its total portfolio to be $1,630 per ounce in 2025, up from $1,516 per ounce in 2024, driven by increased direct operating costs and inflation [2][6] - Higher labor costs, which account for about half of Newmont's direct costs, are a significant concern, alongside rising materials and contract services costs [2][6] - The company anticipates unit costs for the second quarter to be similar to or slightly higher than the first quarter due to increased sustaining capital spending, which is expected to peak in the second quarter [2] Peer Comparisons - Barrick Mining Corporation experienced a 22% sequential increase in AISC to $1,775 per ounce, influenced by operational challenges and lower production [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited reported a slight decline in AISC of 0.6% in the first quarter but projects an increase for the remainder of 2025, with total cash costs per ounce expected between $915 and $965 [4] Market Performance - Newmont's shares have increased by 43.2% year to date, compared to a 48.1% rise in the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, largely due to a rally in gold prices [5] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.12, which is approximately 9.6% below the industry average of 13.4X, and holds a Value Score of A [9] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 20.1% for 2025 and 11.7% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10]

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is facing significant challenges due to a dynamic market landscape, weak conditions, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty, particularly in its Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [1][4]. Financial Performance - ADM's shares have declined by 19% over the past year, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's increase of 5.9% and the S&P 500 index's increase of 10.7% [2]. - The stock's decline is more pronounced than the Agriculture - Operations industry's dip of 1.8% [2]. Segment Performance - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is experiencing headwinds from market dislocations, increased cost inflation, and lower margins in the Crushing subsegment due to elevated industry capacity and competitive meal exports from Argentina [4]. - In the Refined Products and Other segment, biodiesel margins are negatively impacted by biofuel and trade policy uncertainty, weak oil demand, and higher crush capacity [5]. Market Challenges - Ongoing price weakness in main feed ration commodities and compliance with evolving regulations are significant deterrents for the company [6]. - Management has noted signs of weakening customer demand, particularly in carb solutions, leading to reduced volume expectations for certain markets and products [7]. Earnings Outlook - Management has not provided a segment operating profit outlook for future quarters due to tariff policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions [8]. - For 2025, adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $4 and $4.75, with expectations leaning towards the lower end [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has decreased by 4% to $4.07, and for 2026, it has dropped by 4.6% to $4.61 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Despite current challenges, ADM is implementing strategies to return to growth by managing productivity, innovation, and aligning with trends in food security and health [11]. - The company is focusing on strengthening internal controls, improving operational performance, and simplifying its portfolio to enhance core competencies [11].

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) reported first-quarter 2025 results with net revenues increasing year over year but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined year over year but exceeded consensus expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS was 74 cents, down 18.3% on a constant-currency basis, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents [2] - Net revenues rose 0.2% year over year to $9,313 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,332 million, with growth attributed to the Evirth acquisition but offset by negative currency impacts [2] - Organic net revenues grew 3.1% year over year, driven by a 6.6 percentage point increase in pricing, partially offset by a 3.5 percentage point unfavorable volume/mix impact [3] Market Segment Performance - Revenues from emerging markets decreased 0.3% to $3,723 million but increased 3.9% on an organic basis, supported by a 7.6 percentage point increase in pricing [4] - Revenues from developed markets increased 0.6% to $5,590 million, with an organic rise of 2.6%, primarily due to strong pricing execution [5] - Region-wise, revenues in Latin America and North America declined 8.8% and 4.1%, respectively, while Asia, the Middle East & Africa, and Europe grew 3.4% and 5.4% [6] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted gross profit fell by $437 million on a constant-currency basis, with the adjusted gross profit margin contracting 580 basis points to 33.4% due to increased raw material and transportation costs [7] - Adjusted operating income declined by $308 million on a constant-currency basis, with the adjusted operating income margin contracting 370 basis points to 14.8% [8] Financial Health - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,561 million, long-term debt of $15,796 million, and total equity of $25,823 million [9] - Net cash from operating activities was $1,092 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, with adjusted free cash flow of $815 million [9] - Mondelez returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases in the first quarter of 2025 [10] Future Outlook - Mondelez projects organic net revenue growth of around 5% in 2025, with adjusted EPS expected to decline nearly 10% on a constant-currency basis due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation [11] - The company anticipates that currency translation will not impact 2025 net revenue growth and adjusted EPS [11] - Mondelez's shares have risen 12.3% in the past three months, outperforming the industry's 2.5% decline [11]

Core Insights - Mondelēz International reported a slight increase in net revenues of 0.2% for Q1 2025, with organic net revenue growth of 3.1%, but faced a decline in volume/mix of 3.5% [1][6] - The diluted EPS fell significantly by 70.2% to $0.31, while adjusted EPS decreased by 18.3% on a constant currency basis to $0.74 [1][5] - The company generated $1.1 billion in cash from operating activities and reported free cash flow of $0.8 billion, returning $2.1 billion to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance - Net revenues for Q1 2025 were $9,313 million, showing a 0.2% increase compared to the previous year, with organic net revenue growth of 3.1% [4][20] - The gross profit decreased to $2,430 million, with a gross profit margin of 26.1%, down 25.0 percentage points year-over-year [5][20] - Operating income was reported at $680 million, reflecting a 75.1% decline, with an operating income margin of 7.3%, down 22.1 percentage points [5][20] Regional Performance - In Latin America, net revenues were $1,203 million, down 8.8%, while organic net revenue growth was 3.9% [4] - Asia, Middle East & Africa reported net revenues of $2,016 million, with a 3.4% increase and organic growth of 1.8% [4] - Europe saw net revenues of $3,550 million, up 5.4%, with organic growth of 8.9% [4] Strategic Outlook - The company reaffirmed its outlook for 2025, expecting organic net revenue growth of approximately 5% and a decline in adjusted EPS of about 10% on a constant currency basis due to cocoa cost inflation [8][51] - Free cash flow for 2025 is projected to exceed $3 billion, with no expected impact from currency translation on net revenue growth or adjusted EPS [8][51] Shareholder Returns - Mondelēz returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases in the first quarter of 2025 [1][6] - The company continues to focus on delivering sustainable shareholder value while navigating a volatile operating environment [3][6]