Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the diverse opportunities and risks in the futures market, emphasizing the differentiation between bullish and bearish trends across various sectors, particularly in stock indices and certain commodities like iron ore and sugar [43]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures - Key bullish varieties include the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM), indicating a "Good Curve Long" signal, while the CSI 300 futures (IF) show a "Curve Long" signal and the SSE 50 futures (IH) are "Maybe Curve Long," suggesting an overall bullish sentiment [2]. - The market is currently in a "Consolidation" phase, indicating a period of adjustment [3]. - The volatility of stock index futures is relatively low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 1.4 and 5.0, and a moderate rolling Sharpe ratio of approximately 0.2 to 0.7, indicating active trading with manageable volatility [4]. - High positive correlation exists among IH, IF, IC, and IM, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.68 to 0.94, reflecting strong interconnectivity within the sector [5]. - Investment opportunities lie in bullish positions for IC and IM due to strong curve structures and high annualized rolling returns (IC at 7.35%, IM at 10.69%), while IF and IH serve as auxiliary bullish positions suitable for low-cost accumulation during consolidation [6]. - The core logic suggests that small-cap stocks are relatively strong, benefiting from structural policy support and growth expectations, although the overall market lacks trend momentum and requires a breakout signal [8]. Group 2: Government Bond Futures - No clear curve signals are present for 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) government bond futures, with all market states classified as "Consolidation" [9]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (TS -0.26%, TF -0.26%, T -0.02%, TL 0.54%), indicating yield pressure [9]. - The volatility is low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.0004 and 0.0027, and a varied rolling Sharpe ratio (TS at 0.43, T at 0.01), reflecting subdued trading activity and weak returns [10]. - Given the lack of clear direction, it is advised to remain observant or engage in light arbitrage, such as utilizing term spread changes [11]. - The core logic indicates that economic recovery and inflation expectations suppress the bond market, while safe-haven demand provides support, leading to a continued oscillating pattern [13]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Both gold (AU) and silver (AG) are classified as "Maybe Curve Short," but the market state is "Long," indicating a divergence between technical indicators and market conditions [14]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (AU -2.24%, AG -2.11%), reflecting a bearish curve structure [14]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.017 to 0.021, and low rolling Sharpe ratios (AU 0.08, AG 0.06), indicating active trading but poor returns [15]. - Cautious bearish positions are suggested, with attention to potential short-selling opportunities after rebounds or utilizing AU-AG price spread arbitrage [16]. - The core logic suggests that actual interest rates and dollar strength dominate prices, with a bearish technical outlook but support from safe-haven sentiment, leading to short-term weakness [18]. Group 4: Base Metals - Copper (CU) and international copper (BC) show no curve signals, with market states classified as "Long" or "Consolidation"; zinc (ZN) is "Maybe Curve Long," while nickel (NI) is "Short" [19]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (CU -0.28%, ZN 2.14%, NI -0.87%) [19]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.005 and 0.011, and generally low rolling Sharpe ratios (CU 0.02, ZN 0.24), indicating stable trading [20]. - Zinc presents a clear long opportunity due to its bullish curve and positive returns, while nickel's clear bearish trend suggests short-selling at high points [21]. - The core logic indicates that supply-demand balance drives prices, with support from Chinese infrastructure and new energy demand for copper and zinc, but uncertainties arise from inventory levels and macro sentiment [23]. Group 5: Black Metals - Iron ore (I) is identified as "Good Curve Long," while coking coal (JM) is "Good Curve Short," and both coke (J) and rebar (RB) are "Maybe Curve Short" [24]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (I 6.49%, JM -5.35%) [25]. - The volatility is relatively high, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.010 to 0.024, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (I 0.39, JM 0.14), indicating active trading [26]. - Iron ore presents significant bullish opportunities, supported by positive returns and curve backing, while coking coal and coke show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [27]. - The core logic suggests that environmental policies and production cut expectations support iron ore, while weak terminal demand suppresses coking coal and coke, leading to notable sector differentiation [29]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are "Curve Long," while fuel oil (FU) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, and asphalt (BU) is "Curve Long" but also "Short" [30]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SC 3.31%, FU 6.76%, BU 3.09%) [31]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.014 and 0.026, and varied rolling Sharpe ratios (SC 0.14, FU 0.29), indicating strong interconnectivity within the sector [32]. - High-value bullish positions are recommended for SC and LU, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while FU and BU require cautious validation due to their bearish market states [33]. - The core logic indicates that global crude oil supply-demand tightness supports prices, but downstream demand differentiation and chemical products are influenced by both cost and demand factors [36]. Group 7: Agricultural Products - Sugar (SR) is "Curve Long," soybean (A) is "Maybe Curve Long," palm oil (P) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, while rapeseed oil (OI) and rapeseed meal (RM) are "Maybe Curve Short," and live hogs (LH) and eggs (JD) are "Curve Short" [37]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SR 3.58%, P 7.81%, LH -3.64%) [37]. - The volatility ranges from low to moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.004 and 0.015, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (SR 0.56, LH 0.16) [38]. - Clear bullish opportunities exist for sugar and soybean, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while palm oil's bullish curve requires waiting for stronger signals, and live hogs and eggs show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [40]. - The core logic indicates that supply-side factors (planting area, yield) and demand-side factors (feed, consumption) dominate, with significant differentiation among varieties and a need to monitor seasonal factors and global trade flows [42].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market saw widespread gains on October 23, with coking coal main contract rising over 5%, and other contracts like coke, lithium carbonate, and SC crude oil increasing over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1475.19 points, up 12.28 points or 0.84% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2035.40 points, up 16.94 points or 0.84% [1] Group 2 - The energy and chemical sector performed particularly well, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which improved market sentiment [2][3] - Coking coal prices surged over 5% due to supply concerns from environmental regulations and reduced imports, reaching a two-month high [3] - Strong downstream demand for lithium carbonate led to a price increase of over 4% [3] Group 3 - The palm oil market remained weak, with the main contract falling over 1%, influenced by slowing export growth and increasing domestic inventory [4] - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with silver rising over 1% while gold fell by 0.77%, indicating uncertainty in future price movements [4]

Core Insights - The holiday season significantly influences snacking choices, with traditions and childhood memories playing a crucial role in consumer behavior [1][5][7] - The State of Snacking report, developed with The Harris Poll, highlights the global impact of cultural celebrations on snacking habits, particularly in Asian cultures [2][5] Company Overview - Mondelēz International, Inc. reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion for 2024, positioning itself as a leader in the snacking industry with a diverse portfolio of iconic brands [4] Consumer Behavior - A strong connection exists between snacking and cherished childhood experiences, with 76% of consumers recalling fond memories of sharing snacks with parents [5] - 78% of global consumers enjoy sharing their favorite childhood snacks, with particularly high rates in the Philippines, Indonesia, China, and India [5] - 73% of consumers believe certain snacks have been passed down through generations, especially in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rebound in commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend in July, highlighting the opportunities for arbitrage due to the rapid decline in basis rates to historical lows [2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market shows a clear near-weak and far-strong pattern, with near-term prices returning to reality as they approach delivery months, emphasizing the importance of warehouse logic [2]. - The article notes that the spot price increases and volatility are not keeping pace with futures prices, creating arbitrage opportunities [2]. Group 2: Arbitrage Costs and Monthly Differences - A detailed analysis of the monthly differences and risk-free arbitrage costs for various commodities is provided, with a funding cost reference of 4% [2]. - Specific examples include PTA with a monthly difference of -36 and an arbitrage cost of 186, and MEG with a monthly difference of -23 and an arbitrage cost of 238 [4]. - The article also highlights the complexities of warehouse registration and cancellation for various commodities, affecting their arbitrage potential [4][5][6]. Group 3: Commodity Specifics - For energy products, the article mentions that the asphalt warehouse registration is concentrated at the end of September, leading to potential expiration of warehouse receipts [4]. - In the black metals sector, the iron ore and rebar products show limited arbitrage space, with specific costs outlined for effective trading [5]. - The agricultural products section indicates that the risk-free arbitrage cost for live hogs is variable, depending on market conditions and production costs [6]. Group 4: Overall Market Strategy - The article emphasizes the need for investors to consider the implications of warehouse logic and registration timelines when engaging in commodity trading [2][4][5]. - It suggests that understanding the monthly differences and associated costs is crucial for making informed investment decisions in the current market environment [2][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes and weekly capital flow and position changes of these futures [2][4][11] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview Precious Metals - Gold closed at 777.32 with a weekly increase of 12.11%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.88%, speculation degree of 1.15, trend degree of 0.14, and capital change of 29.31 [2] - Silver closed at 9,392.00 with a weekly increase of 14.74%, volatility change of 6.39%, speculation degree of 2.00, trend degree of 0.18, and capital change of - 21.41 [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 79,250.00 with a weekly increase of 11.02%, volatility change of 8.11%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of 0.00, and capital change of 7.27 [2] - Nickel closed at 124,360.00 with a weekly increase of 13.55%, volatility change of - 2.59%, speculation degree of 2.20, trend degree of 0.29, and capital change of 8.73 [2] - Aluminum closed at 20,760.00 with a weekly increase of 9.94%, volatility change of 19.17%, speculation degree of 0.51, trend degree of 0.12, and capital change of 3.46 [2] - Tin closed at 271,630.00 with a weekly increase of 15.43%, volatility change of 6.80%, speculation degree of 4.91, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 7.86 [2] - Zinc closed at 22,885.00 with a weekly increase of 14.07%, volatility change of 28.29%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 2.15 [2] - Lead closed at 16,955.00 with a weekly increase of 7.59%, volatility change of - 11.79%, speculation degree of 0.85, trend degree of 0.05, and capital change of - 0.08 [2] - Industrial silicon closed at 9,725.00 with a weekly increase of 42.16%, volatility change of 17.35%, speculation degree of 3.43, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 1.14 [2] Black Metals - Rebar closed at 3,356.00 with a weekly increase of 16.64%, volatility change of 46.68%, speculation degree of 1.43, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 11.10 [2] - Iron ore closed at 802.50 with a weekly increase of 20.75%, volatility change of 25.20%, speculation degree of 0.88, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital change of - 18.35 [2] - Coke closed at 1,763.00 with a weekly increase of 33.70%, volatility change of 29.75%, speculation degree of 1.67, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 5.61 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,259.00 with a weekly increase of 50.73%, volatility change of 54.67%, speculation degree of 4.70, trend degree of 0.88, and capital change of 56.65 [2] - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,507.00 with a weekly increase of 16.27%, volatility change of 44.49%, speculation degree of 0.71, trend degree of 0.38, and capital change of 10.40 [2] - Ferrosilicon closed at 6,166.00 with a weekly increase of 36.16%, volatility change of 64.42%, speculation degree of 1.93, trend degree of 0.28, and capital change of 4.91 [2] - Silicomanganese closed at 6,414.00 with a weekly increase of 30.90%, volatility change of 119.78%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 9.12 [2] - Stainless steel closed at 13,030.00 with a weekly increase of 9.23%, volatility change of 0.58%, speculation degree of 1.66, trend degree of 0.27, and capital change of 3.73 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 512.90 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, volatility change of - 49.31%, speculation degree of 3.68, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of 0.85 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,915.00 with a weekly increase of 0.10%, volatility change of - 51.42%, speculation degree of 2.64, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 1.58 [2] - LU closed at 3,613.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.61%, volatility change of - 57.51%, speculation degree of 1.48, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.12 [2] - LPG closed at 4,047.00 with a weekly increase of 1.43%, volatility change of - 38.51%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 2.05 [2] - Asphalt closed at 3,615.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.09%, volatility change of - 55.52%, speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.18, and capital change of - 2.77 [2] - PVC closed at 5,373.00 with a weekly increase of 8.83%, volatility change of 61.62%, speculation degree of 2.08, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 1.77 [2] - Polyethylene closed at 7,456.00 with a weekly increase of 3.33%, volatility change of - 5.38%, speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of 0.45, and capital change of - 0.45 [2] - Polypropylene closed at 7,221.00 with a weekly increase of 2.97%, volatility change of - 8.60%, speculation degree of 0.94, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 0.73 [2] - Styrene closed at 7,587.00 with a weekly increase of 4.52%, volatility change of - 21.67%, speculation degree of 1.37, trend degree of 0.44, and capital change of - 0.39 [2] - PTA closed at 4,936.00 with a weekly increase of 4.05%, volatility change of - 38.50%, speculation degree of 1.01, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 4.10 [2] - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,545.00 with a weekly increase of 3.86%, volatility change of - 39.08%, speculation degree of 0.87, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 2.83 [2] - Short - fiber closed at 6,606.00 with a weekly increase of 3.67%, volatility change of - 21.55%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.43, and capital change of 0.10 [2] - Methanol closed at 2,519.00 with a weekly increase of 6.51%, volatility change of - 9.47%, speculation degree of 1.54, trend degree of 0.46, and capital change of 3.33 [2] - Urea closed at 1,803.00 with a weekly increase of 3.32%, volatility change of 32.12%, speculation degree of 1.49, trend degree of 0.16, and capital change of 0.44 [2] - Glass closed at 1,362.00 with a weekly increase of 25.99%, volatility change of 60.25%, speculation degree of 3.88, trend degree of 0.58, and capital change of - 4.10 [2] - Soda ash closed at 1,440.00 with a weekly increase of 18.42%, volatility change of 74.17%, speculation degree of 3.49, trend degree of 0.48, and capital change of - 17.51 [2] - Natural rubber closed at 15,585.00 with a weekly increase of 5.23%, volatility change of - 8.64%, speculation degree of 3.10, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 1.38 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 14,170.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.70%, volatility change of 0.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of - 0.23, and capital change of - 2.59 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,876.00 with a weekly increase of 0.86%, volatility change of - 12.50%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 3.48 [2] - Corn closed at 2,311.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.13%, volatility change of - 6.18%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 5.61 [2] - Apple closed at 8,005.00 with a weekly increase of 1.55%, volatility change of - 19.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of 0.26, and capital change of - 0.24 [2] - Starch closed at 2,665.00 with a weekly increase of 0.26%, volatility change of - 4.75%, speculation degree of 0.49, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 1.69 [2] - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,224.00 with a weekly increase of 0.84%, volatility change of - 15.66%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 1.29 [2] - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,661.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.74%, volatility change of - 11.64%, speculation degree of 1.21, trend degree of - 0.17, and capital change of 0.06 [2] - Soybean meal closed at 3,021.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.15%, volatility change of - 5.58%, speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of - 7.69 [2] - Soybean oil closed at 8,144.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.20%, volatility change of - 19.62%, speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.61 [2] - Palm oil closed at 8,936.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.31%, volatility change of - 1.15%, speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of 0.04, and capital change of - 14.42 [2] - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,675.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.73%, volatility change of - 7.60%, speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital change of - 2.43 [2] - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,457.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.35%, volatility change of - 9.93%, speculation degree of 1.26, trend degree of - 0.21, and capital change of - 4.46 [2] Forest Products - Pulp closed at 5,520.00 with a weekly increase of 4.31%, volatility change of - 45.72%, speculation degree of 2.11, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 3.31 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 14,385.00 with a weekly increase of 1.77%, volatility change of 15.99%, speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.15, and capital change of 14.31 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 6,216.00 with a weekly increase of 3.59%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.92%, volatility change of - 7.44%, speculation degree of 0.43, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 50.63 [4] - IF closed at 4,116.00 with a weekly increase of 1.84%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.07%, volatility change of - 23.25%, speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 34.02 [4] - IM closed at 6,605.80 with a weekly increase of 3.00%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 12.19%, volatility change of - 16.14%, speculation degree of 0.65, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 72.21 [4] - IH closed at 2,796.80 with a weekly increase of 1.08%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 7.06%, volatility change of - 27.82%, speculation degree of 0.55, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 9.98 [4] - T closed at 108.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.62%, volatility change of 16.55%, speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of - 0.24, and capital change of 2.37 [4] - TS closed at 102.31 with a weekly decrease of 0.12%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 0.42%, volatility change of 12.45%, speculation degree of 0.41, trend degree of - 0.16, and capital change of - 1.57 [4] - TF closed at 105.57 with a weekly decrease of 0.40%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.13%, volatility change of 10.65%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of - 0.32, and capital change of 0.07 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Gold has a year - to - date increase of 25.86%, silver 25.73%, and other varieties have different year - to - date price changes, such as红枣 (13.41%), apple (13.06%), etc [11] Weekly Capital Flow and Position Changes - The capital attention of coking coal, gold, live pigs, rebar, and hot - rolled coil has increased [13] - The positions of crude oil

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced mixed results on June 25, with urea and red dates leading gains of over 2% [1] - The SC crude oil futures contract fell by over 8%, while high-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1374.19 points, down 16.51 points or 1.19% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Urea and Red Dates - Urea futures saw a strong rebound with a 2.47% increase, recovering losses from earlier in the week due to increased demand and inventory depletion expectations [2] - Concerns over weather conditions affecting red date production led to a rise of over 2%, reaching a four-month high, despite current low consumption levels [2] Group 3: Other Commodities - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon both increased by over 1%, with ferrosilicon reaching a one-month high [3] - The overall market sentiment improved, contributing to gains in coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and nickel, all closing up by over 1% [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions, with SC crude oil futures down 8.13% [4] - Despite a decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories, concerns about supply disruptions remain, limiting the extent of price declines [4] - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with potential for further declines due to OPEC+ production increases and high tariffs affecting global demand [4] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Rates - The shipping market for the European route saw its fifth consecutive day of declines, with a drop of 3.07% in the main contract [5] - Freight rates for routes from Shanghai to European ports have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [5] - The expectation of price increases by airlines has diminished due to weakened market sentiment and competition among carriers [5]

Core Insights - The 2024 State of Snacking report by Mondelēz International reveals a trend towards mindful snacking, with consumers focusing on flavor, taste, and texture while being present during their snacking moments [1][2][3] Consumer Behavior - The survey indicates that nearly all consumers are managing portion sizes and being attentive while snacking [2] - 96% of global consumers engage in mindful snacking behaviors, and 79% appreciate snacks more when consumed mindfully [7] - 81% of consumers pay attention to the sensory experience of their snacks, savoring the flavor, taste, and texture [7] Portion Control - Over half of consumers seek snacks that are portion controlled, with 69% looking for such options [7] - Mindful consumption is emphasized as a way to enjoy snacks in a balanced manner [7] Company Positioning - Mondelēz International is adapting to evolving consumer preferences by ensuring that every snack provides opportunities for connection and mindfulness [3] - The company reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion in 2024, leading the future of snacking with iconic brands [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different industries have varying import profit, internal - external price differences, and trading logics. Attention should be paid to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and production schedules [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Agriculture - **Cotton**: Affected by trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton prices has reversed. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger than US cotton, and continuous attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policy changes [2]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: These commodities have a high degree of import dependence. Trade flows and logistics are smooth. The risks from the international upstream of the industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal - external supply - demand rhythms [2]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipment and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - making water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro - environment has strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro - environment is relatively stable. The price center of iron ore has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1]. Oil Products - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external price relationship has weakened [1]. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship maintains a weak pattern and has been oscillating recently [1]. - **LU**: The internal - external price difference has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1]. - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have fallen, CP has risen. The internal - external price difference has declined, especially for PG - CP [1]. PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the de - stocking of PX is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage to take profit [1]. - **Tin**: With the smooth resumption of production of overseas and Myanmar mines, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage as the LME inventory has been low recently [1]. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the RMB exchange rate and consumption seasons, the internal - external price ratio has rapidly declined [3]. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window has closed [3]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index, on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and other exchange rates have shown different degrees of decline over different time periods [3].