>> FROM NEW YORK CITY, I’M SCARLET FU. BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> COMING UP A MASSIVE WAVE OF VOLATILITY HITS WALL STREET TRIGGERED BY FED COMMENTARY THAT LEAVES THE DECEMBER RATE CUT IN DOUBT.UNSTEADY CREDIT MARKET LEADS TO A RARE WHOLESALE IN HIGH GRADE. WE START WITH THE MARKET. >> IF THE FED DOESN’T DELIVER THEACTICS WILL BE PRICED.THAT IS THE SPARK THAT LIT THIS. THERE’S A BROAD A YOU RAY OF RISK. THEY HAVE IT FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY DO TO PRIORITIZE.THE OCTOBER DATA WILL BE VERY NOISY AND ...

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, at the Qatar Economic Forum (QEF) in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday, May 21, 2025.Veteran investor Howard Marks has warned that cracks unearthed in the credit market demonstrate investor "complacency" and "carelessness" — but stopped short of calling the turmoil a broader systemic problem.In his latest memo to clients, the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management discussed the high-profile bankruptcies of U.S. car parts supplier First Brands and ...

30 October 2025 | 1:17PM MDT Credit Strategy Research GLOBAL CREDIT TRADER AI supply likely to fuel a re-leveraging impulse Credit vs. equities: Valuation constraints bind for USD spreads The continued AI boom: A durable supply driver for credit Favor USD IG primary for concession pickup; pursue sectors for alpha in HY Spencer Rogers, CFA +1(801)884-1104 | spencer.rogers@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sara Grut +44(20)7774-8622 | sara.grut@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Shamshad Ali +1(212)902-6712 | sh ...

Market Overview & Fed Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is generally beneficial for the credit market [1] - The market is uncertain about future rate cuts beyond the current one [2] - Tariffs initially caused inventory pre-buying, delaying the impact on prices, but Q3 is when the impact is expected to be felt [3][4] Credit Market Conditions - Credit spreads are currently tight [4] - High yield market quality is at its best in a decade, with the highest percentage of double B and lowest percentage of triple C ratings in over 10 years [5] - Current tight spreads are considered reasonable given the current risk levels [6] Investment Strategy & Economic Outlook - Equity market valuations require significant growth, while credit offers contractual returns, making credit potentially more attractive in a slowing economy [6][7] - Contractual returns in credit are yielding approximately 7% to 8% [7] - Signs of a slowdown include consumer spending trends, particularly among low-end consumers, and rising credit card delinquencies [8][9] - The market is heading into a credit picker's market, where the ability to select good credits will be crucial [10][11] - Core high yield and loan credit below investment grade are in a relatively good position with low leverage and good liquidity [11]

Let's talk to uh Goldman Sachs's head of investment credit, Johnny Fine. Nice to have you back here at Post 9 to be here. Thanks for having 25.What else do you think we get in terms of a a sense as to where things stand for uh the year ahead. >> I think we'll get a reaffirmation that there'll be a cut again in December. I think you'll hear that in the press conference.I don't think there's anything that we've learned about the real economy or the labor market that changes the summary of economic projections ...

>> FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. SCARLET: COMING UP, THE LONG-AWAITED AND LONG DELAYED TO SEPTEMBER CPI REPORT WAS BENIGN, SHOWING INFLATION AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN THREE MONTHS. OFFERING A PATH FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES BEYOND NEXT WEEK'S MEETINGS.SOME OF THE BIGGEST VOICES ON THE STREET WEIGHING IN ON POSSIBLE CRACKS IN THE CREDIT MARKET. WE BEGIN WITH A BIG ISSUE, A SOFTER THAN EXPECTED CPI PRINT. >> IT IS GENERALLY A BETTER-THAN-E ...

Net Interest Income & Margin - Net interest income is expected to continue to grow at double digits into the end of this year and next year [2] - Net interest margin guidance is between 3 and 5 basis points [2] Regional Economic Activity & Lending - Central New York is experiencing strong employment growth, even before the Micron investment [4] - Manufacturing is strong from Western New York through Massachusetts up to northeastern Pennsylvania, driving growth [5][6] - The company is seeing increased activity from contractors and subcontractors preparing for site work, beginning in November [5] Credit Quality & Loan Provisions - Credit quality is very good in the company's markets [7] - The company lowered loan provisions due to strong housing and commercial lending markets [6][7] - The company is not seeing signs of stress in credit markets, except for temporary weakness related to Canadian tourism in Vermont and northern New York [8]

Further signs of strain in the credit market risks provoking another broad equities rout as long-only investors, including pension funds, will be compelled to sell, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp https://t.co/SHRarfo7hB ...

>> SCARLET: BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. SCARLET: COMING UP, A FED FALLING IN LOCKSTEP TO SUPPORT THE LABOR MARKET DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF OFFICIAL DATA. A QUICK WARNING ABOUT COCKROACHES PUTS THE CREDIT MARKET UNDER A MICROSCOPE.TRIGGERING A FLIGHT TO SAFETY AND SENDING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, THE FED'S NEXT MOVE. >> TO A CERTAIN EXTENT WE ARE FLYING BLIND RIGHT NOW.>> MACRO DYNAMICS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR. >> WE HAVE A SLOWING IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY. >> WE HAVE A ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 demonstrates remarkable resilience in the face of emerging issues in the credit market, likening its durability to that of a 'cockroach' [1] Group 1 - Signs of nascent problems in the credit market are becoming apparent, yet the S&P 500 remains robust [1] - The resilience of the S&P 500 suggests a strong underlying market despite potential credit challenges [1]