Flash | 16 Nov 2025 15:34:41 ET │ 10 pages CMOC (3993.HK) What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference: KFM Phase 2 in Operation in 1H27E CITI'S TAKE We hosted meetings for CMOC on Nov 13th at our China Conference in Shanghai. Ms. Xinyi Liu, IR Manager, and Ms. Anna Zhu, IR Manager, attended the meeting. Below are our key takeaways. 3Q25 result – The higher net profit QoQ in 3Q25 and better than market expectation profit is mainly driven by lower effective tax rate, some realized cobalt sales volume, and stro ...

November 13, 2025 09:40 AM GMT Tencent Holdings Ltd. | Asia Pacific 3Q25: Revenue Beat; Shy on Capex Reaction to earnings Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: 3Q25 results review | (Rmb mn) | | | | 3Q25 | Mse | | 3Q25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Income Statement | 3Q24 82,695 | 2Q25 | 3 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with potential alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves managing a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, with a typical holding period ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] - The approach includes building comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] Research Methodology - The research methodology involves monitoring industry news, company filings, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The focus is on assessing company performance through five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, rather than projecting long-term financials [1]

Core Insights - The focus is on generating alpha through independent investment management, primarily using a Self Managed Super Fund [1] - The investment strategy is generalist, targeting sectors with perceived alpha potential compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The typical investment holding period ranges from a few quarters to multiple years [1] Research Approach - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] - Monitoring includes industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, especially during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The emphasis is on assessing company performance and outlook based on five key drivers of DCF valuation rather than projecting long-term financials [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with potential alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves managing a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, with a typical holding period ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] - The analyst builds comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] Research Methodology - The research methodology includes monitoring industry news, company filings, and other analysts' coverage, with a particular focus on leadership changes and their impact on company performance [1] - The analyst prefers not to use discounted cash flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, instead focusing on assessing a company's historical performance and key drivers of valuation [1] Key Drivers of Valuation - The five key drivers of DCF valuation highlighted are revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, which influence the opportunity cost of capital [1]

Flash | 15 Oct 2025 02:07:14 ET │ 13 pages Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ) 3Q25 Profit Cut Miss; Prefer Sungrow and Deye for Higher Sales Mix from ESS CITI'S TAKE Ginlong reported net profit of +29.4% yoy to Rmb865m in 9M25, including -16.8% yoy and -35.4% qoq to Rmb263m in 3Q25. Its quarterly profit cut was a miss vs. consensus (Bloomberg) forecasting its profit of up 68% yoy to Rmb1,158m in 2025E. We attribute Ginlong's earning miss likely to (i) low revenue growth of +3.4% yoy to Rmb1,869m in 3Q25 with ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on sectors with perceived potential against the S&P 500 [1] - A generalist approach is adopted, allowing for exploration and investment across various sectors, with typical holding periods ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] Research Methodology - The company maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons against peers [1] - Monitoring includes not only company filings but also relevant industry news and reports, as well as analyses from other investors [1] - In instances of leadership changes, a deep dive into the new CEO's background and past performance is conducted to assess potential impacts on the company [1] Valuation Approach - The company rarely utilizes Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, believing they offer limited value [1] - Instead, the focus is on evaluating how a company has performed historically and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates [1]

Summary of Ming Yuan Cloud (0909.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ming Yuan Cloud (0909.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Software in China Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Profit Alert**: Expected net profit between Rmb12.09 million to Rmb15.41 million, significantly better than previous estimates of Rmb141 million net loss and Rmb85 million loss consensus [1][6] - **Cost Control**: The positive profit is attributed to better-than-expected cost control measures [1] Forecast Changes - **Revenue Forecast**: 2025-27E revenue forecast remains largely unchanged [2] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Increased by 107%/57%/46% for 2025-27E to reflect the above-expectation net profit [2] - **2025E Expectations**: Anticipated flat revenue with adjusted net profit of Rmb117 million [2] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Raised to HK$2.25 from HK$2.00 based on DCF valuation methodology [2] - **Current Price**: HK$3.53, indicating a downside potential of 36.3% [11] Investment Thesis - **Business Transition**: Ming Yuan Cloud is in the early stages of transitioning its business model amidst a challenging real estate market in China [7] - **Cash Position**: Strong net cash position of Rmb3.8 billion as of 1H24, with 71% held in USD/HKD offshore [7] - **Operational Efficiency**: Effective OPEX reduction leading to a positive net profit inflection expected in 2H24E [9] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Faster recovery in the real estate sector, increased digitization demand, successful transition into new business initiatives, and improved market sentiment [10] - **Downside Risks**: Poor execution in cost reduction, weaker sales cycles, and slow share repurchase program execution [10] Financial Metrics - **Market Cap**: HK$6.5 billion / $829.4 million [11] - **Revenue Estimates**: Expected revenues for 2025E at Rmb1,434.8 million [11] - **EBITDA**: Projected negative EBITDA for 2024, turning positive in subsequent years [11] Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral on Ming Yuan Cloud, with a cautious outlook given the current market conditions and the company's transition phase [9][10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on sectors with perceived potential against the S&P 500 [1] - A generalist approach is adopted, allowing for exploration and investment across various sectors, with typical holding periods ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1] Research Methodology - The company maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and performance indicators compared to consensus estimates [1] - In addition to company filings, relevant industry news and reports are monitored to provide a holistic view of the stock's performance [1] - A deep dive into leadership changes, particularly CEO transitions, is conducted to assess the background and past performance of key leaders [1] Valuation Approach - The company rarely utilizes Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, believing they offer limited value [1] - Instead, the focus is on evaluating how a company has performed historically and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on sectors with perceived alpha potential compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The investment approach includes maintaining comprehensive spreadsheets that track historical financial data, key metrics, and industry news to inform investment decisions [1] - The author prefers assessing company performance based on key drivers of valuation rather than projecting long-term financials, highlighting the significance of revenues, costs, margins, cash flow, capital expenditures, and interest rates [1] Company Research Approach - The research methodology involves a generalist approach, allowing for exploration and investment across various sectors [1] - Historical data and performance metrics are meticulously tracked to identify trends and potential investment opportunities [1] - The analysis includes monitoring industry news and reports, as well as evaluating leadership changes and their impact on company performance [1]