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【广发宏观郭磊】对2月PMI数据的几点印象
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-03-01 12:06
广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一, 节后开复工正常推进。每年春节分布不同,年初数据非直接可比。2025年春节与2017、2022年相 似,均处于1月底。从PMI走势看,也呈现类似的规律:1月较前值下降,2月较1月回升。从2月环比前一年 12月的变化来看,2017为0.2;2022年为-0.1;2025年为0,季节性斜率大致相当,显示节后开复工在正 常推进。不过从绝对值看,2025年2月只有50.1,弱于2017年的51.6,略低于2022年2月的50.2,景气中 枢仍需继续提升。 第二, 出口订单依旧较为平稳。2月生产、订单、出口订单环比分别上行2.7、1.9、2.2个点。近年出口订单 基本上波动在47-48的水平,比如2023年均值47.5、2024年均值48.4,今年2月的48.6属于正常水平。不 过鉴于海外逆全球化政策仍在继续升级过程中,对于后续外需风险仍需保持警惕。 第三, 大型企业和小型企业的景气度差值扩大(图)。2月大企业和小企业PMI分别为52.5、46.3,6.2的差 值高于2024年均值的2.7。除了小企业节后劳务上工率约束这一季节性因素外,可能还包含 ...
【广发宏观郭磊】从2月BCI数据看当前企业端状况
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-02-27 09:37
Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators, particularly the BCI and EPMI, show signs of recovery post the 2025 Spring Festival, indicating a potential improvement in the economic landscape for the upcoming months [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The BCI for February stands at 52.8, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4 points, which is significant given the limited number of working days in February [6][7]. - The EPMI also shows a month-on-month rise of 3.4 points to 49.0, indicating a seasonal recovery in new industries [5][6]. - The BCI readings for the first four months of 2024 were relatively stable, suggesting a smoother credit rhythm, with a notable decline expected starting in May [6][7]. Group 2: Price Expectations - Both intermediate and consumer goods prices are expected to rise, with consumer prices having bottomed out in October 2024 [2][9]. - The BCI forward-looking price index for consumer goods increased to 44.8, while the intermediate goods price index rose to 40.6, indicating a recovery from previous lows [8][9]. Group 3: Business Sentiment - There is a significant improvement in business expectations regarding sales and profits, with the sales forward index reaching 62.7, the highest since May 2024, and the profit forward index at 51.3, the highest since February 2024 [9][10][11]. - The BCI investment forward index has also shown a notable increase, aligning with the positive signals from sales and profit expectations [11][12]. Group 4: Inventory Trends - The BCI inventory forward index indicates a trend towards proactive inventory replenishment, which is expected to continue into the seasonal peak in March [12][14]. - Recent months have seen a return to inventory replenishment characteristics, suggesting a potential for sustained improvement [12][14]. Group 5: Employment and Financing Environment - The employment outlook remains a concern, with the enterprise hiring forward index showing a slight increase but still at a low level compared to historical highs [14][15]. - The financing environment index for February was slightly lower than January, indicating that the financing conditions have not improved as expected [14][15].