10日，仲量联行发布2025年第二季度上海房地产市场回顾与展望。报告显示，上海投资市场二季度录得 23宗大宗交易，投资者对核心区域资产布局持续加码。 仲量联行数据显示，二季度，办公资产以38%的成交金额占比稳居首位；长租公寓板块表现亮眼，以 27%的占比跃居第二；其次分别为零售物业的18%、工业的7%、酒店的4%、住宅的3%和产业园区的 3%。值得注意的是，零售物业以35%的成交宗数占比成为二季度最活跃板块。其中，总价1至3亿元区 间且交易周期短的街铺式商业资产尤其受到市场青睐。 仲量联行认为，这反映出投资者对消费复苏的预期持续强化。 从需求结构来看，投资性需求仍占据市场主导地位，占比达66%，核心区域资产集聚效应显著。仲量联 行华东区投资及资本市场负责人孙翎认为，投资者对核心区域资产的集中布局，不仅反映了风险偏好趋 稳的市场心态，更凸显出上海核心地段资产的稀缺价值和抗风险能力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 仲量联行数据显示，2025年第二季度，上海商业地产市场共录得23宗资产交易，总成交金额达82亿元。 二季度单体项目平均成交金额为3.6亿元，成交金额在1至3亿元规模区间的交易占市场成交宗数的 61%。 报告认 ...

截至2025年7月10日 13:56，中证主要消费指数(000932)下跌0.23%。成分股方面涨跌互现，海南橡胶(601118)领涨1.45%，安迪苏(600299)上涨1.04%，洋河股 份(002304)上涨0.96%；乖宝宠物(301498)领跌9.92%，东鹏饮料(605499)下跌4.60%，海大集团(002311)下跌2.03%。主要消费ETF(159672)下跌0.13%，最新报 价0.76元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月9日，主要消费ETF近1周累计上涨0.80%。 群益证券指出，茅台酒销售公司完成上半年经营任务，需求端表现稳定，同时公司积极转变思路，从"渠道为王"向"消费者为王"转型，服务质量提升带动消 费体验优化。在政策整治趋于理性背景下，6月下旬飞天茅台批价已企稳回升至1940元/瓶左右。尽管行业整体复苏仍需时间，但龙头企业通过精细化运营和 品牌力支撑，具备较强的抗压能力。预计下半年白酒板块情绪有望进一步改善。 规模方面，主要消费ETF近1周规模增长123.98万元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金2/5。 份额方面，主要消费ETF最新份额达9888.74万份，创近1月新高。 截至 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重。最近后台好多人问我，港股这阵仗，是不是该动心思了？毕竟这两年它躺得够久了，从2021年高点摔下来，跌跌撞撞快三年，好 多人套得牢牢的，现在总算有点抬头的意思，心里难免打鼓。今天咱就掰开揉碎了聊聊，港股这所谓的"新机遇"，到底是真机会还是镜中花。 先说说眼下的港股，像个憋了口气的人，最近总算喘匀了点。你看恒生指数，从去年10月那波低点爬起来，不知不觉也涨了快两成。不光指数动，里头 的"大块头"也有动静——腾讯最近稳住了，阿里也没之前那么蔫了，连之前跌得爹妈不认的地产股，偶尔也能蹦跶两下。有人说这是资金回来了，南向资金 最近天天往里灌，单月净流入好几次破百亿，跟之前净流出的时候比，真是两重天。 作为做了20年财经记者、盯着中长线的人，我觉得港股的机会确实在慢慢冒头，但不是那种"闭眼买"的机会。它更像一片刚翻过的地，得挑种子，还得有耐 心等发芽。那些估值够低、业务扎实、又能吃到内地经济红利的公司，比如跟消费复苏沾边的，或者在科技领域有真本事的，值得多瞅两眼。但千万别想 着"抄底抄在最尖尖"，中长线投资，讲究的是"买得值，拿得住"，不是比谁下手快。 总的来说，港股这口气喘过来了，但还没到跑起来 ...

今日（7.8）A股集体飘红，上证指数再创年内新高，3500点仅一步之遥，消费ETF（159928）收涨0.5%，全天成交额 2.39亿元！资金面上，消费ETF（159928）全天获净申购8200万份，至此已连续2日净流入！最新规模超119亿元，同 类领先！ 截至收盘，消费ETF（159928）标的指数成分股多数飘红：燕京啤酒涨超2%，山西汾酒涨近2%，贵州茅台、五粮 液、牧原股份、伊利股份、泸州老窖微涨。下跌方面，东鹏饮料跌超3%，温氏股份微跌。 业绩面上，7月7日，燕京啤酒交出了A股酒企第一份上半年业绩预告。公告显示，2025年上半年，燕京啤酒实现归母 净利润10.62-11.37亿元，同比增长40%-50%，单二季度实现归母净利润8.96-9.72亿元，同比增长37%-48%。 中邮证券指出，燕京啤酒2025年二季度利润超预期，改革红利持续。二季度U8销量继续保持增长势头，带动公司整体 上半年实现销量和均价的增长。公司通过数字化采购和生产端卓越管理实现成本优化，2025年原料采购价格取得较低 水平，同时通过标准化管理使能耗、人力等成本持续下降。利润端公司有望继续享受经营改革红利。 （来源：中邮证券2025 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a stabilization in food and beverage demand, with signs of recovery becoming increasingly clear [1] - The core conclusion emphasizes a transition between old and new market dynamics, prioritizing market share [4] Industry Review - The food and beverage industry faced pressure in Q2 due to seasonal consumption declines and policy impacts, with significant differentiation among segments. Notably, the liquor and beer sectors were most affected, while beverages and snacks continued to show good growth [6] - Alcoholic beverages, particularly high-end liquor, are undergoing adjustments due to policy changes, while lower-alcohol options are experiencing growth. The report suggests monitoring long-term trading opportunities in the liquor sector [6][12] - The beverage sector remains robust, with double-digit growth expected in categories like electrolyte water and coconut water. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of a coconut water brand, projecting an 80% revenue growth for 2024 [6] - The snack industry is transitioning from channel expansion to category-driven growth, with strong momentum expected to continue into 2026 [6] - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing weak demand, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in basic condiments and frozen prepared foods [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, with specific stock picks including Guizhou Moutai and Yanjing Beer [6] - It suggests selecting strong individual stocks with clear market share gains or strong earnings certainty, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6] - High dividend yields are highlighted as a significant safety net in the current weak market environment, with Chongqing Beer being a notable example [6] Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor index has underperformed the broader market, with a 12% decline year-to-date, primarily due to weakening consumer demand and increased competition [12] - The report notes that the performance of individual liquor stocks has diverged, with some brands gaining market share while others struggle [13] - Guizhou Moutai's price has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop exceeding 20%, impacting overall sector valuations [12][19] Profitability Forecasts - The report anticipates that many companies will struggle to meet their growth targets in 2025, with a general downward revision of revenue growth expectations [44] - It highlights that the external environment remains uncertain, putting pressure on demand, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and sales promotion [45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

投资建议：本周推荐组合为贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、东鹏 饮料、安井食品等。 风险提示：需求恢复较弱；原材料价格大幅上涨；市场竞争加剧。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月07日 食品饮料周报（25 年第 27 周） 优于大市 茅台价格趋稳，关注板块中报业绩表现 本周（2025 年 6 月 30 日至 2025 年 7 月 4 日）本周食品饮料板块上涨 0.74%， 跑输上证指数 0.67pct。本周食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为科拓生物 (21.90%)、煌上煌(11.71%)、晨光生物(11.47%)、百洋股份(10.45%)和双塔 食品(9.71%)。 白酒：茅台价格趋稳，关注板块第二季度业绩表现。贵州茅台 7 月 2 日公告 回购股份进展，截至 6 月底，公司累计回购股份 338.21 万股，占公司总股 本的比例为 0.27%，支付金额 52.02 亿元。本周白酒指数上涨 1.2%，基本面 加速磨底，关注增量政策带来的估值修复。情绪面看，大盘整体稳中走强， 促消费政策预期升温，顺周期属性较强的标的表现更好。基本面看，需求压 力仍然较大，第二季度业绩表现预计平淡，酒企更 ...

7月7日早盘，食品饮料板块表现突出。海融科技开盘后迅速封涨停，佳禾食品同样涨停。香飘飘、一致 魔芋、欢乐家、熊猫乳品等个股紧随其后上涨。 市场消息显示，7月5日美团单日零售订单创下历史新高。该平台当日订单量达到1.2亿单，其中餐饮订 单超过1亿单。这一数据反映出外卖消费需求的强劲增长。 海融科技作为植脂奶油领域的重要企业，主要从事烘焙食品原料的研发与生产。公司产品涵盖奶油、巧 克力、果酱等多个品类，广泛应用于烘焙及餐饮行业。据悉，该公司在中国植脂奶油市场占据重要地 位。 与此同时，港股市场新茶饮相关股票也出现集体上涨。茶百道、古茗、蜜雪集团、沪上阿姨等个股均有 不同程度涨幅。这一现象与内地外卖平台订单量激增形成呼应。 浓缩果汁企业国投中鲁同样录得一字涨停。该公司近期披露重大资产重组预案，计划收购中国电子工程 设计院全部股权。交易完成后，公司业务将从传统果汁向电子工程领域延伸。 食品饮料板块的活跃表现，体现了市场对消费复苏的乐观预期。外卖订单量的历史性突破，为相关产业 链企业带来积极信号。上游原料供应商受益于下游需求增长，股价表现相对强势。 海融科技股价的快速拉升，反映出投资者对新式茶饮产业链的关注度提升。公司 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 6 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 持续看好国内消费复苏潜力 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 100.00% | 0.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 24/7 24/8 | 24/9 | 24/10 | 24/11 | 24/12 | 25/1 | 25/2 | 25/3 | 25/4 | 25/5 | 25/6 | | -100.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪深300 | | | | | | | 商贸零售(申万) | | | | % | | 1 个月 | | | | 3 个月 | | | 12 个月 | | | | 相对 ...