行 华福证券 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 15 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 破晓启航——2026 年行业投资策略报告 投资建议 证 券 研 究 报 告 餐饮建议优先布局反转行情。龙头企业依托强组织能力、供应链体系与品 牌规模效应，有望实现显著的恢复弹性，建议关注海底捞、百胜中国、蜜雪集 团、古茗、小菜园。把握餐饮链龙头困境反转机会，建议重点关注餐饮供应链 龙头安井食品以及具备利润弹性和海外扩张能力的安琪酵母，此外建议关注海 天味业、千禾味业、巴比食品、立高食品；啤酒板块有望迎来贝塔复苏，与此 同时，行业高端扩容的主线预计将延续，首先关注在高端市场具备进一步突破 潜力的燕京啤酒；其次是行业绝对领导者青岛啤酒与华润啤酒，白酒短期建议 把握春节窗口，全年维度上，建议按照产业趋势与出清节奏进行配置：初期建 议关注竞争格局稳固的贵州茅台，根据业绩出清程度建议关注古井贡酒、五粮 液、泸州老窖，以及在 100–300 元价位具备成长势能的大众酒品牌金徽酒与 迎驾贡酒；同时持续跟踪洋河股份的改革进度。 大众品角度，主要机会可分为存量优化和成长赛道。从存量优化角度看， 26 年看原奶温和回升带来产业利润率改善机会，建议关注 ...

今天分享的是：国盛证券-2026食饮行业年度策略：消费者大时代 报告共计：61页 2026年食饮行业年度策略总结 2025年食饮行业呈现总量企稳、价格承压、结构分化的特征，2026年有望迎来多维度改善，各细分赛道机遇与变革并存。 2025年，食品饮料（中信）板块累计下跌4%，相对沪深300跑输20%。白酒板块承压显著，全年下跌7%，而大众品内部分化明显，保健品、速冻食品、饮料 板块分别上涨18%、15%、12%，乳制品受益原奶周期修复上涨7%。消费总量上，社会零售总额温和增长，1-11月同比增长4.0%，服务消费增速快于商品消 费。消费量逐步企稳，巴比食品同店收入等指标持续改善，食品CPI在11月同比回正，结束此前负区间运行。结构上，高端消费先行复苏，重奢商场销售额 回升，高端旅游等体验消费回暖；产品端健康化趋势明确，大单品生命周期缩短，渠道端线下迭代与线上延伸并行，折扣零售、品质零售、即时零售共同发 展。 白酒行业已现动销、价盘、报表三重底部，2025年供给出清持续推进，龙头企业带头控量稳价，2026年酒企目标理性，聚焦动销与份额。需求端冰点已过， 开瓶量环比改善，春节动销有望延续修复态势，大众价位刚需凸显 ...

$$\mathbb{H}$$ 财经 2026/01/13~2026/02/14 奖项名称 数量 奖品名称 评选规则 投向预言家 10 精美礼品 2026开年，市场迎来了开门红。 （1）宏观政策如何影响未来趋势？#2026年市场怎么走 @郑重看股：全国财政工作会议刚刚定调2026：核心就四个字——"大力提振消费"，并且白纸黑字承诺 "继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新" ！这碗热气 腾腾的"政策牛肉面"，咱们A股投资者，该怎么下筷子？ 第一步，紧盯短期"政策直接受益链"：重点关注大家电（白电/黑电）、新能源汽车、智能家居等板块的龙头。它们是补贴最直接的对象，弹性可能最先 显现。 第二步，布局中期"科技创新自强链"：会议强调增加科技投入和实施制造业重点产业链行动。这意味着半导体、工业母机、AI硬件等"硬科技"领域，仍 是中长期必须配置的核心。 第三步，关注长期"消费基础改善链"：会议提及"促进居民就业增收"和"以人为本的新型城镇化"。这关乎消费能力的根本。可以长远关注与就业服务、 职业培训、城市更新相关的领域。 必须清醒的是，单靠补贴难以扭转长期的消费趋势，关键是居民收入的实质性改善。因此，这波行情更可能是 "结构性 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively adjusted on January 13, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index experiencing a near 2% decline [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a trading volume of nearly 280 million yuan as of January 13, with leading stocks including Jinhe Industrial, Quanyangquan, and Ziyan Food showing significant gains [2] - Moutai has reportedly set lower contract prices for several products for 2026, with significant price reductions for various types of Moutai, including a nearly 37% decrease for certain premium products [2] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the current liquor sector is still at a bottom range, with leading liquor companies seeing an upward inflection point in sales, and short-term expectations for core products during the Spring Festival are optimistic [3] - Aijian Securities noted that liquor companies are entering a rapid performance clearing phase, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease, and the industry is currently at a low valuation with pessimistic expectations fully priced in [3] - The leading liquor companies are controlling supply and stabilizing prices, which is expected to drive up wholesale prices and increase dividend ratios, making them attractive for investment [3]

以2025年1月1日至13日的数据为例，期间仅有63家A股上市公司披露业绩预告，其中续亏、首亏类公司 仅7家，占同期披露总数的11.11%。但2026年1月这一惯例被打破，预亏公司与预增公司同步集中披 露。 预亏潮集中爆发： 传统行业成重灾区 从已披露数据看，本轮预亏潮呈现"规模不均、行业集中"的特征。 A股年报业绩预告季，正以一种显著区别于往年的节奏拉开序幕。传统上，业绩向好的公司往往更乐于 率先"报喜"，而业绩不佳者则倾向于延迟披露。然而，本轮预告潮初期，预亏、续亏公告却呈现密 集"抢跑"态势，与预增公告同步甚至更早地涌入市场，引发了市场各方的密切关注。 21快讯记者查询同花顺（300033）数据显示，截至2026年1月13日上午，当月已有105家上市公司发布 2025年度业绩预告，占近期披露总数的70.9%。其中，续亏公司42家、首亏公司15家，合计57家预亏相 关企业，占当月披露总数的54.29%. 事实上，根据相关安排，无特殊情况，上市应当在会计年度结束后1个月内完成年度业绩预告。但长期 以来，A股市场存在业绩预告"报喜不报忧"的披露特征：通常业绩增长的公司会较早披露预告，业绩亏 损或下滑的公司则倾 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint for 2026 A-shares is likely to be driven by a dual engine of "consumption recovery" and "technological self-reliance" [4] - The national fiscal work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing "strongly boosting consumption" and committing to "continue arranging funds to support the replacement of consumer goods" [3] - Short-term focus should be on sectors directly benefiting from policies, such as major appliances, new energy vehicles, and smart home industries, which are the primary targets for subsidies [3] Group 2 - Mid-term investments should target "hard technology" sectors like semiconductors, industrial mother machines, and AI hardware, as the conference highlighted increased investment in technology and key manufacturing industry actions [3] - Long-term attention should be given to areas related to employment services, vocational training, and urban renewal, which are crucial for improving consumer capacity [3] - The market's risk appetite is expected to remain neutral to warm, with a significant reduction in concerns over potential tariff and trade-related risks, supported by positive government statements from both China and the U.S. regarding economic performance in 2026 [5] Group 3 - Structural opportunities are anticipated to expand further in 2026, with cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals expected to benefit from economic recovery and supply-side improvements [5] - The ongoing AI wave and the demand for self-reliance in technology remain core investment themes [5] - The difficulty of stock selection is expected to increase in 2026, necessitating in-depth research to seize stock picking and timing opportunities [5]

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices continued to rise, with the Zheng cotton futures main contract reaching 15,035 yuan/ton on January 7, a 1.5-year high, before slightly retreating. The average settlement price for the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 14,806 yuan/ton, up 291 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 2.0% increase. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,712 yuan/ton, up 242 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase compared to the previous week [2] - International cotton prices experienced a brief rise due to strong domestic Zheng cotton prices and expectations of reduced U.S. cotton planting area, but faced downward pressure from weak U.S. cotton export data. The average settlement price for the New York cotton futures main contract was 64.69 cents/pound, up 0.45 cents/pound, a 0.7% increase from the previous week. The average international cotton index (M) price was 72.6 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,435 yuan/ton (calculated with a 1% tariff, excluding port and handling fees), down 87 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The price difference between domestic and international cotton expanded to 3,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 329 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The global supply of cotton is tightening, while terminal consumption shows signs of recovery. Brazil's cotton exports reached 453,000 tons in December 2025, with a total annual export of 3.03 million tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, effectively supplementing global supply. The Indian Cotton Association raised its production estimate for the current year to 5.262 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.77%, alleviating concerns about reduced production [5] - U.S. cotton exports remain weak, with a net contract volume of only 32,000 tons as of January 1, a further decline from the previous week, indicating weak spot demand. A recent survey indicated that U.S. cotton planting intentions for the 2026 season are expected to drop to 9.505 million acres, a decrease of 270,000 acres year-on-year, reflecting declining farmer enthusiasm and suggesting potential tightening of future supply [5] - The global apparel consumption demand is expected to recover, with inventory levels in major markets like the U.S. and South Korea dropping to near three-year lows. The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 54 in January, the highest in four months, reinforcing expectations for improved terminal demand [5] - Domestic new cotton sales continue to increase, with a national cotton sales rate of 55.6% as of January 8, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The volume of cotton inspected has reached nearly 6.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5] - The downstream cotton yarn market shows mixed performance, with high and medium count yarns selling well, while low count yarns face sluggish sales. The operating rate of spinning enterprises remains stable but slightly decreased, with limited new order quantities [5][6] Market Dynamics - The domestic cotton market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with tightening supply expectations clashing with sluggish downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. Additionally, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are causing short-term fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, which are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [6]

行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 12 日 食品饮料 证券研究报告 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台加速营销市场 化转型，普飞上架 i 茅台》2026-01-05 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：扩内需提至战略高 度，五粮液主动求变》2025-12-22 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台控量稳价，批 价反弹回升》2025-12-15 会，稳健姿态应对行业调整》2025-12-08 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台理性定调，不 唯指标论》2025-12-01 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 朱振浩 S0820125020001 021-32229888-25515 zhuzhenhao@ajzq.com 行业及产业 i 茅台抢购热度高，C 端触达效果显著 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 白酒：酒企步入业绩快速出清通道。随着政策压力逐渐消退，在扩消费政策催化下，需求有 望弱复苏。行业目前处于估值低位，悲观预期充分，预计后续行业出清 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumption industry is expected to show a moderate recovery in 2026, driven by service consumption and resilient essential consumption, with a focus on CPI-driven recovery opportunities [1][2] - In 2025, the consumption industry demonstrated characteristics of stabilization, structural optimization, and confidence restoration, supported by a 5.4% year-on-year growth in service consumption from January to November [2][3] - The shift in China's economic growth drivers from "goods consumption" to "service consumption" is anticipated, with recovery elasticity ranking as "service industry > mass goods > high-end consumption" [3] Group 2 - New consumption opportunities are emerging due to supply-side challenges like brand aging and product homogeneity, alongside demand-side changes such as generational shifts and the rise of Generation Z as a key consumer group [4] - The supply side is focusing on innovation through product rejuvenation and leveraging new channels for enhanced efficiency, while the demand side is driven by the unique consumption values of Generation Z, who are willing to pay for diverse and niche products [4]

一、交易提示 2026年首个交易周，46只新基金密集上架，偏股混合型与被动指数型各占16只、10只，权益类占比近六成；同时，证监会 接收多只科技、消费主题产品申报材料。公募策略会观点显示，机构一致将科技视为跨越全年的核心主线，消费复苏与高 端制造为左右翼，年初发行潮提前卡位春季躁动，亦为全年结构性行情埋伏弹药。 （4）2026年开年，公募策略共识浮出水面，AI、半导体等科技赛道仍为核心主线；同时，经历2025年估值修复的新能源与 资源品，在经济复苏、人民币升值预期下仍具配置价值，机构计划沿"风光储+锂电材料"与"铜铝金"两条链挖掘盈利弹性， 形成科技进攻、周期防御的多元组合。 三、01月09日新发基金一览（不包含传统封闭式基金） 1月9日,A股三大股指早盘高开高走,午盘小幅回落,午后再度震荡走高,截止收盘,上证综指上涨37.45点,涨幅0.92%报4120.43 点;深证成指上涨160.67点,涨幅1.15%报14120.15点;沪深300指数上涨21.27点,涨幅0.45%报4758.92点;创业板指数上涨25.51点, 涨幅0.77%报3327.81点;科创50指数上涨20.8点,涨幅1.43%报1475 ...