Core Viewpoint - Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko warns that President Trump has a different agenda regarding cryptocurrency, focusing on preserving dollar dominance, and predicts Bitcoin will bottom around $58,000-$63,000 in September [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Agenda and Crypto - Yusko asserts that Trump is not a friend to the crypto community, indicating that his agenda is contrary to the interests of cryptocurrency [2]. - He claims that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others are involved in clandestine efforts with Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether to maintain dollar hegemony and counter China's ambitions for the yuan to become the world reserve currency [2]. Group 2: Bitcoin Market Analysis - Yusko believes the four-year Bitcoin cycle remains intact, with the next trough expected around September 30-October 1, 2023 [3][4]. - Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could fall to $58,000-$63,000, with previous cycles showing declines of 84% and 75% from peaks [4]. - Bitcoin's recent peak was $126,000, which is only 35% above its fair value of around $90,000, indicating less potential upside and downside compared to previous cycles [4]. Group 3: Fair Value and Market Dynamics - Yusko's Metcalfe's Law model estimates Bitcoin's current fair value at $81,000, down from $90,000 due to hash rate shutdowns and declining transaction volumes [5]. - Yusko discusses how commodity futures can suppress Bitcoin prices, explaining that institutions may buy Bitcoin ETFs while shorting futures to maintain market neutrality [6].

Who Is J.P.Morgan? The Enforcer of Dollar Hegemony, a Temple of Finance, and Bitcoin's Staunch OpponentAt the heart of JPMorgan Chase’s power lies its command over the global U.S. dollar clearing network. In the realm of cross-border payments and international settlements, the bank has become an irreplaceable hub. But such a vast network does not come without barriers. JPMorgan’s standards for compliance and risk control are regarded as the “global gold standard,” and its account onboarding process is notor ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising gold prices nearing $5000 per ounce, reflecting a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid a declining trust in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly after China reduced its holdings to the lowest level since 2008 [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.31%, the highest in nine months, and the 30-year yield approaching 4.95%, impacting mortgage and auto loan rates [3] - China's continuous reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings over 14 months signals a long-term concern regarding the credibility of U.S. debt, influencing European institutions to follow suit in reducing their holdings [3] Group 2 - The trade policies implemented by the Trump administration, while appearing to prioritize American interests, have led to increased isolation of the U.S. economy within the global framework, resulting in accelerated capital outflows from the Treasury market [4] - Attempts by the Trump administration to intervene in the Federal Reserve's independence and manipulate interest rates may provide short-term relief but could exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine trust in the dollar [6] - The U.S. debt now constitutes 124% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning threshold, indicating a precarious fiscal structure that could undermine the U.S.'s position in global economic negotiations [6] Group 3 - The ongoing rise in gold prices poses a challenge to the dollar's dominance in the global financial system, necessitating the U.S. government to rebuild market confidence and address both domestic and international pressures [8] - The current international situation presents a severe challenge to the dollar's hegemony, with collective sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries and the rise of gold prices reflecting a shift in investor sentiment and a silent protest against U.S. policy choices [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry Core Insights - The US Congress is developing regulations to promote the sound development of stablecoins, reflecting strong support from the Trump administration for crypto assets and aiming to maintain the US dollar's dominance as the world's currency [2][5][6] - The GENIUS Act establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain reserve assets and disclose information about their reserves [4][7][8] - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, potentially reaching $2 trillion by the end of 2028, driven by the demand for USD-pegged stablecoins [15][17] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which aims to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to be approved by authorities and maintain reserves of highly liquid assets [4][5][7] - Issuers must disclose reserve asset information monthly, with additional requirements for those with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion [8][9] Market Dynamics - Major US retailers and travel companies are considering issuing USD-pegged stablecoins, which could lead to competition with banks and impact their fee income from credit card transactions [11][12][13] - The current global stablecoin market is dominated by USD-pegged stablecoins, which account for over 90% of transactions [16] Economic Implications - The promotion of USD-pegged stablecoins is seen as a strategy to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially stabilizing the US Treasury bond market by increasing demand for these bonds [15][18][19] - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to increased foreign investment in US Treasuries, contributing to the stability of the dollar [20][21] Historical Context and Risks - The report draws parallels with the abandoned Libra project, highlighting potential risks associated with expanding stablecoin use for international payments [23][24][32] - Concerns exist regarding the ability of authorities to effectively supervise privately issued stablecoins and prevent financial crimes [28]