Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's CEO Mike Doustdar provided a pessimistic outlook on the company's prospects for 2026 during a media briefing following the pre-announcement of earnings [1] Group 1 - The company pre-announced its earnings a day prior to the media engagement [1] - CEO Mike Doustdar expressed concerns regarding the company's future performance [1]

Core Themes - The annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference highlighted key themes such as drug pricing, patent cliffs, and dealmaking as drugmakers strategize for 2026 and beyond [1][2][3] Drug Pricing - Recent drug pricing agreements under Trump's "most-favored-nation" policy are expected to have a modest impact on businesses, reducing uncertainty for drugmakers [6][7] - Sanofi's CEO indicated that while there is an impact from the pricing deal, the company believes it can manage it effectively [7] - AstraZeneca's CFO noted that the initial effects of its drug pricing deal are limited, affecting a specific Medicaid population and representing a low single-digit percentage of global sales [9] - Pfizer's CEO stated that the pricing deals could pressure European countries to increase drug prices, suggesting that companies might stop supplying medicines to countries that refuse to pay more [10] Patent Losses and Dealmaking - Pharmaceutical companies are focusing on dealmaking to offset potential revenue losses from patent expirations, with an estimated $300 billion at stake as blockbuster drugs lose exclusivity [3][11] - Merck's CEO expressed confidence in growing through the loss of exclusivity for its top-selling drug, Keytruda, projecting $70 billion in sales from new products by the mid-2030s [13] - Bristol Myers Squibb is preparing for the loss of exclusivity for its drug Eliquis, which generated $13.3 billion in sales in 2024, and aims to deliver up to 10 new products by the end of the decade [14][15] Vaccine Rhetoric - Concerns were raised regarding changes to U.S. immunization policy under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with executives expressing disappointment over the reduction in recommended vaccinations for children [19][20] - Pfizer's CEO noted that the changes have no scientific merit and could lead to increased disease rates, although he does not believe it will impact the company's bottom line [20] - Sanofi's CEO acknowledged the scrutiny of vaccines aligns with expectations ahead of the 2024 election, emphasizing the importance of sticking to factual evidence [21]

Core Insights - AbbVie has entered a voluntary agreement with the Trump administration to enhance access and affordability of medications for Americans while fostering U.S. pharmaceutical innovation [1][3] Group 1: Financial Commitments - AbbVie will invest $100 billion in U.S.-based research and development and capital investments, including manufacturing, over the next decade [2][6] - The agreement allows AbbVie to provide low prices in Medicaid and expand direct-to-patient offerings through TrumpRx for widely used medications [2][6] Group 2: Strategic Goals - AbbVie aims to address the complexities and access challenges in the U.S. healthcare system, serving approximately 16 million Americans annually with its products [3] - The agreement aligns with President Trump's drug pricing priorities and includes exemptions from tariffs and future price mandates [3][6] Group 3: Company Mission - AbbVie's mission focuses on discovering and delivering innovative medicines that address serious health issues and future medical challenges across key therapeutic areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - The biopharma sector is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by strong M&A activity and the resolution of drug-pricing concerns, with a focus on cardiometabolic, obesity, cardiovascular, and oncology drugs [1][2][3]. Industry Trends - M&A activity in the pharmaceutical sector has started strong in 2026, with expectations for increased activity due to major patent cliffs anticipated in 2028 and 2029 [3]. - The biopharma industry, particularly biotech, is poised for recovery after a challenging few years, with optimism surrounding the performance of pharma stocks [2]. Company Performance - Biogen Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB) is highlighted as a top-performing pharma stock in 2025, with a 1-year performance of 20.95% and 59 hedge fund holders [8]. - AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) also ranks among the best performers, achieving a 1-year performance of 26.15% with 93 hedge fund holders [13]. Analyst Ratings - Biogen Inc. received multiple rating updates on January 8, with price targets raised by Truist to $190, Goldman Sachs to $225, and Mizuho to $207, reflecting positive sentiment for 2026 [9][10][11]. - AbbVie Inc. was downgraded by Wolfe Research to Peer Perform, while UBS raised its price target to $240, indicating a balanced risk/reward outlook amid competitive pressures [13][15]. Company Profiles - Biogen Inc. specializes in therapies for serious diseases, including multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer's, with a diverse product portfolio [12]. - AbbVie Inc. focuses on chronic disease treatments across various therapeutic areas, including oncology and immunology [16].

Core Insights - Amgen (AMGN) has signed a significant agreement with the Trump administration to reduce drug prices in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Drug Pricing and Discounts - The agreement addresses major concerns in the pharmaceutical industry regarding drug pricing and tariffs, aligning Amgen's drug prices with those in other developed countries [2] - Amgen's direct-to-consumer (DTC) program, AmgenNow, offers substantial discounts, starting with its cholesterol-lowering drug Repatha at $239 per month, which is nearly a 60% discount from its U.S. list price [3] - The DTC program will also include migraine drug Aimovig and Humira biosimilar Amjevita, priced at $299 per month, reflecting discounts of 60% and 80% respectively [3] Group 2: Financial Terms and Investments - While specific financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed, it is expected to include a three-year exemption from import tariffs on pharmaceutical ingredients, contingent on increasing domestic manufacturing capacity [4] - Amgen plans to invest an additional $2.5 billion in U.S. production and research, which includes a $600 million science and innovation center in California, a $900 million manufacturing expansion in Ohio, and a $1 billion facility in North Carolina [4] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Amgen is part of a broader trend, with eight other large-cap drugmakers, including Bristol Myers, GSK, and Merck, also entering similar agreements with the administration [5] - Some companies have committed to donating active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to a government stockpile to enhance supply chain resilience during emergencies [6] - The Trump administration has now reached agreements with 14 out of 17 large drug manufacturers called to lower prices, improving investor sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector [7] Group 4: Valuation and Performance - Amgen's shares have outperformed the industry year to date, trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.34, which is below the industry average of 17.48 [8][11] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased over the past 60 days, indicating positive market expectations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The biotech sector is experiencing a rebound in 2023, with expectations for continued recovery into 2026, despite initial pressures and a rough start to the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Stocks of pharmaceutical companies that recently engaged in deals with the administration have traded higher, indicating a positive market response despite price reductions to align with global standards [2]. - The removal of uncertainty regarding drug pricing has allowed companies to adjust their business models accordingly, leading to potential revenue upside [3][4]. - The stabilization of negative earnings revisions after nearly three years suggests a potential upside for the biotech sector as it approaches 2026 [7]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Agreements signed with the Trump administration regarding drug pricing have provided clarity for companies, enabling them to better navigate their business models [8]. - There is ongoing uncertainty in the vaccine sector, particularly regarding regulatory frameworks, which may impact stock performance [8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - For large-cap stocks, Amgen and Regeneron are identified as having upside potential, while Biogen is seen as a laggard [9]. - The focus for small to mid-cap stocks includes innovation in cardiovascular disease, obesity treatments, and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as key themes for the upcoming year [9]. - Cancer treatment is highlighted as a significant area of focus for future investments [10].

Despite pressure from the administration, a rough start to the year, biotech has seen a rebound this year. Our next guest is betting that that recovery will continue into 2026. So joining us now, Salivine Richtor.She is the lead US biotech analyst at Goldman Sachs Research. And Salivine, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.>> Thank you for having me. What's interesting to me is that these names of these, you know, these stocks of these pharma companies that did inc this deal with the president just ...

Economic Policy and Market Reactions - President Trump proposed a "dividend of at least $2,000 a person" for low- and middle-income Americans, funded by tariffs, which analysts found financially unfeasible [2][3] - The Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs will generate $200 billion to $300 billion annually, while the proposed payout could cost the Treasury $300 billion to $600 billion if children are included [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2%, and the S&P 500 slid 1.2% following the announcement, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the legality of Trump's tariff policies [4] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Trump announced deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to reduce prices on GLP-1 drugs, with monthly costs potentially dropping from over $1,000 to as low as $350 [5] - Initially, shares for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly fell by 7% and 4.3% respectively after the price cut announcement, but later recovered as both companies secured a three-year tariff reprieve and committed to U.S. investments [6] - Analysts suggest that the price cuts could make 40 million more Americans eligible for Lilly's obesity drugs, indicating potential volume growth despite initial stock dips [6] Global Trade Dynamics - Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on India as part of a potential trade deal, despite India's continued oil imports from Russia [8] - The Indian market responded positively, with the Nifty index gaining 120 points, driven by optimism regarding U.S. trade relations and falling global interest rates [9] - Global markets remain volatile due to ongoing tariff threats, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and a 10% increase on Canadian imports, which have negatively impacted sectors like healthcare [10] Market Trends and Volatility - U.S. financial markets in 2025 have shown resilience, recovering from early-year selloffs to near-record highs, influenced by presidential announcements [11] - The Dow recently surged over 500 points to an all-time high, while the NASDAQ experienced a decline due to a slump in Nvidia shares, highlighting the market's sensitivity to news and policy changes [12]

Core Insights - Shares of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly declined after both companies agreed to lower prices for their GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, Wegovy and Zepbound, to between $149 and $350 from previous prices of $500 to $1,000 for U.S. government programs and cash payers [1][3] Pricing and Market Impact - The price reduction is expected to have a "low single-digit" negative impact on Novo's global sales growth next year, but increased volumes under Medicare are anticipated in the mid to long-term [3] - Eli Lilly will set a net price of $245 for Zepbound, representing a 20% to 35% discount compared to its diabetes drug Mounjaro, which contains the same active ingredient [3] - The lowest dose of Zepbound will be priced at $299 per month, with higher doses at $449, reflecting a $50 discount from current direct-to-patient prices [8] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk faces heightened competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound and other copycat drugs in the weight-loss market, having seen its market value decrease by 70% since last year due to supply constraints and commercial challenges [6] - Despite the price cuts, analysts believe that the deals may yield more positive outcomes than negative for both companies, as expanded access is expected to boost sales volume [4] Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Novo's shares fell by 3.7%, reaching their lowest level since the new CEO took office, while Eli Lilly's shares dropped by 2.7% [5] - Eli Lilly's shares had previously gained over 15% in the week leading up to the announcement, with the recent dip attributed to profit-taking by investors [7]

Summary of Vivani Medical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Vivani Medical (NasdaqCM: VANI) - **Focus**: Addressing medication adherence in chronic disease treatments, particularly in the GLP-1 receptor agonists space [2][12] Industry Context - **Chronic Disease Treatment**: Over 50% of patients do not adhere to their medication regimens, leading to an estimated $500 billion in avoidable costs to the U.S. healthcare system annually [2] - **GLP-1 Receptor Agonists**: This class of drugs has shown significant effectiveness in treating obesity and related conditions, with three approved injectables: Wegovy, Zepbound, and Saxenda [3] Core Product and Technology - **Product**: A six-month semaglutide implant aimed at improving patient outcomes through better adherence, tolerability, and convenience [12] - **Technology**: NanoPortal drug delivery system, allowing for sustained release of medication without the complications of traditional delivery methods [18] Key Differentiators - **Adherence**: The implant aims to reduce missed doses, which is a significant issue with current GLP-1 therapies, where over 50% of patients miss doses [9][21] - **Tolerability**: The implant is designed to minimize gastrointestinal side effects commonly associated with GLP-1 drugs by stabilizing drug levels [7][9] - **Cost-Effectiveness**: The implant could potentially lower manufacturing costs and improve pricing flexibility compared to current injectable therapies [11] Clinical Development and Market Potential - **Clinical Trials**: Anticipated initiation of clinical development for the semaglutide implant in the first half of next year [13][29] - **Market Growth**: GLP-1 products are expected to see a 32% compounded annual growth rate, indicating strong market potential [21] - **Patient Persistence**: Current persistence rates for semaglutide are low, with only 40% remaining on treatment after one year and 25% after two years [22][23] Competitive Landscape - **Market Activity**: Over 50 companies are developing new GLP-1 injectables, but many are likely to fail due to lack of differentiation [4] - **Unique Offering**: Vivani Medical's implant is the only GLP-1 implant in development for obesity, with a unique dosing schedule of once or twice a year [33] Future Directions - **Expansion Plans**: Potential to explore the use of the implant in other chronic diseases and patient populations, including type 2 diabetes and psychiatric conditions [12][14] - **Animal Health**: Collaboration with a small animal health company to develop similar implants for pets, tapping into a growing market [14] Conclusion - Vivani Medical is positioned to address significant unmet needs in chronic disease management through its innovative implant technology, targeting improved medication adherence and patient outcomes in the growing GLP-1 market [33]