国家气候中心监测显示，2025年10月，赤道中东太平洋进入拉尼娜状态。截至12月15日，拉尼娜状 态仍在持续。本次拉尼娜状态还将持续多久？对我国将带来哪些影响？记者采访了中国气象局相关专 家。 拉尼娜状态将持续至2026年初 形成拉尼娜事件可能性较低 "监测显示，今年10月赤道中东太平洋进入拉尼娜状态。综合分析预测，本次拉尼娜状态将持续至 2026年初。"国家气候中心气候预测室副主任章大全说。 厄尔尼诺与南方涛动合称为ENSO，它是热带太平洋海气相互作用现象，包含厄尔尼诺（暖相位） 和拉尼娜（冷相位）两种模态。拉尼娜状态并不必然发展为拉尼娜事件，当拉尼娜状态持续时间大于和 等于5个月，判定为形成一次拉尼娜事件。 章大全认为，预计本次拉尼娜状态持续时长将不满5个月，形成拉尼娜事件的可能性相对较低。 预计今冬我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高 一般来说，发生拉尼娜事件的冬季，西北太平洋和南海上空盛行气旋式异常环流，其西侧偏北风有 利于引导北方冷空气南下，加强东亚冬季风，导致我国中东部地区气温偏低为主。 "需要指出的是，受全球变暖等因素的影响，本世纪以来，拉尼娜背景下我国冬季气温偏暖的情况 也频繁发生，甚至出现暖冬 ...

Group 1 - The average national temperature in China since October is 11.1℃, close to the normal level for the same period, exhibiting characteristics of "warm at the front and cold at the back" and "cold in the north and warm in the south" [1] - There has been an increase in the activity of cold air since October compared to September, with three cold air processes occurring, which is close to the normal level for the same period [1] - The monitoring of seasonal progress indicates that most northern regions have entered winter, with significant differences in the timing of winter onset compared to normal years [1] Group 2 - As of September, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is in a neutral to slightly cold state regarding ENSO, with expectations of entering a La Niña state in the late autumn and lasting until early 2026 [2] - The forecast for this winter suggests that the national average temperature will be close to or slightly above the normal level, with overall less precipitation and a "more in the north, less in the south" distribution [2] - There is a low risk of widespread persistent low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing weather in southern regions this winter, with significant fluctuations in temperature expected [2]

Core Insights - The China Meteorological Administration predicts the onset of La Niña conditions in late autumn, with significant temperature fluctuations expected during the winter season [1][2] Group 1: La Niña Conditions - La Niña is expected to develop in late autumn and persist until early 2026, with a lower probability of forming a prolonged La Niña event due to its anticipated short duration [2] - The equatorial central-eastern Pacific is forecasted to remain in a neutral-cool state until September 2025 [2] Group 2: Impact on Winter Climate - Under La Niña conditions, the average winter temperature across China is expected to be close to or above the normal levels, with overall reduced precipitation [2] - The distribution of precipitation is anticipated to be "more in the north, less in the south," with a lower risk of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events in southern regions [2] - Specific areas such as southeastern East China, eastern Central China, and eastern South China are expected to experience less precipitation [2]

Core Insights - The research team led by Professor Li Yu from Lanzhou University successfully reconstructed the dry-wet variation process in the upper Yellow River region during the Holocene, revealing the main mechanisms controlling these changes over a long time scale [1][3][4] Group 1: Research Findings - The study published in the journal "Science Bulletin" highlights significant regional differences in water resource evolution in China's northwest arid areas, with the western region gradually becoming "warmer and wetter" since the 1960s, while the eastern upper Yellow River area has continued to experience "aridification" [3][4] - The research team established a lake evolution research network in the Qilian Mountains and accurately characterized the Holocene dry-wet evolution, noting that lake water levels rose from the late Ice Age to the early Holocene, peaked during the mid-Holocene, and have been declining since the late Holocene [3][4] Group 2: Climate Mechanisms - The primary controlling factor for the Holocene dry-wet changes in the region is identified as the interaction between tropical ocean and atmosphere (ENSO), with observations indicating a recent trend of warming and wetting in the northwest, but a potential increase in ENSO amplitude could alter hydrological patterns and increase the risk of extreme drought events [3][4] - The study also simulated the water cycle of lakes in the East Asia-Central Asia arid region since the last glacial maximum, revealing differing water resource evolution patterns on the eastern and western sides, attributed to variations in moisture transport from monsoons and westerly winds, as well as differences in lake evaporation effects [4]