Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current climate is in a weak La Niña state, which is significantly weakening and transitioning to ENSO neutral. The probability of neutrality from March to May is about 60%, the probability of the continuation of weak La Niña is about 30%, and the probability of El Niño is about 10% [1] - Affected by La Niña, the overall precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil is low, the temperature is high, and the soil humidity is low. It is expected that the precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil will fall to a seasonally low level in late March, with low soil humidity and falling temperature. As La Niña fades, precipitation in Brazil is expected to increase and the temperature to fall [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugarcane Growth Conditions and Stages - Different growth stages of sugarcane have different temperature, precipitation, and light requirements. For example, the germination stage requires a soil moisture content of 20% - 30% and a temperature of 26 - 32°C; the tillering - elongation stage requires a daily average temperature of ≥25°C and a large amount of water, accounting for 55% - 60% of the whole growth period [10] - Different countries and regions have different sugarcane growth seasons. In Brazil, the central - southern region is in the tillering - elongation stage in 2 - 7 months and the harvesting - pressing stage in 7 - 10 months; in India, the sowing - germination stage is from July to September, and the tillering - elongation stage is from September to December [10] Sugarcane Production and Trade in Different Regions - Brazil is the country with the largest sugarcane planting area in the world. About 50% - 60% of its sugarcane is used to produce ethanol, and its sugar production depends on the profit comparison between sugar and ethanol. It is also the largest sugar exporter, with sugar exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its production [17] - India is the second - largest sugar - producing country, with its production affected by natural factors. It is also the largest sugar - consuming country, and its production determines whether it exports sugar [17] - Thailand is the second - largest sugar exporter most of the time, with an annual production of about 10 million tons and exports accounting for 70% - 85% of its production [17] Sugarcane Production in China - In China, the sugarcane planting area in the south is relatively stable, while the beet planting area in the north is determined by farmers according to planting income. Guangxi is the largest sugar - producing area in China, accounting for more than 60%, and Chongzuo is the "Sugar Capital" of China, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - producing area [15] Weather Conditions in Brazilian Sugarcane Producing Areas - The central - southern part of Brazil is in the sugarcane tillering stage, which requires a continuous high - temperature environment (effective accumulated temperature of 5000 - 6500°C) and a water - holding capacity of 65% - 70%. Drought can lead to fewer tillers and insufficient effective seedlings [1] - The precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil has improved recently, and the soil humidity has also improved [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural meteorological conditions for various crops, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, corn, cotton, apples, dates, sugarcane, beets, peanuts, wheat, and rice. It also includes ENSO forecasts and their potential impacts on crop growth and production [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - ENSO forecast: The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6] - Domestic: Spring wheat sowing has started in the eastern part of Northwest China. Single-season rice, spring corn, and potatoes are in the sowing and emergence stage in Southwest China. Early rice in South China is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and in the Yangtze River Basin, it is in the sowing and emergence stage. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting, and affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and spring corn. Continuous rainy weather will aggravate the occurrence and development of rapeseed sclerotinia and wheat stripe rust [7] - International: US soybeans have not started sowing. Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and Argentine soybeans are in the growing stage. As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 66.4%. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting. In the next 15 days, most areas of the Argentine soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture. European rapeseed is in the growing stage. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany in Europe will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures. There is rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia, but it is less than normal, reducing the impact on palm fruit picking [7] 2. Meteorological Conditions in Each Crop Producing Area Soybeans - Domestic: Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) accounts for over 60% of the total soybean output, and the Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 15% of the total output. Both regions have not started sowing yet [11][16] - US: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana. New-season soybeans usually start to be planted in mid-April. The USDA's supply and demand report shows that the US soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 115.75 million tons, lower than 119.05 million tons in the previous season. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean-producing areas will be higher than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. The drought degree has increased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous week. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean-producing areas are in a drought state. Compared with the previous week, the area of severe drought and above (D2+) has increased by 3%, and the D3+ area remains unchanged. Overall, the drought situation has worsened. Compared with the same period last year, the D1+ area has increased by 7%, the D2+ area has increased by 5%, and the D3+ area is the same, which is worse than last year [25][26][35] - Brazil: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central-western part, including Mato Grosso (28%), Paraná (13%), Rio Grande do Sul (11%), Goiás (11%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (9%). As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate is 67.7%. The USDA report estimates that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting [39][40][47] - Argentina: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Buenos Aires (31%), Córdoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), and Santiago del Estero (9%), accounting for about 12% of the world's output. The soybeans are in the growing stage. The USDA expects the output in the 2025/26 season to be 48.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, most areas of the soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [51][52][58] Rapeseed - Domestic: Spring rapeseed is planted in the Northwest and North China, accounting for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. Winter rapeseed is planted in the Yangtze River Basin and Southwest China, accounting for about 50% and over 35% of the total output respectively, and both are in the full-bloom stage. In the Yangtze River Basin, there is more rainfall, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting. The temperature conditions in all producing areas are suitable [62][68][73] - Canada: The rapeseed output ranks first in the world, accounting for about 22%. It is concentrated in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) and is usually sown in May. Statistics Canada estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 is 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 22 million acres in 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed-producing areas in the three provinces will have less rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [78][83] - EU: The rapeseed output ranks second in the world, accounting for about 20%. The rapeseed is mainly planted in France (21%), Germany (21%), Poland (18%), Romania (6%), etc. It is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the rapeseed output of the 27 EU countries in the 2025/26 season is 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with 16.8 million tons in the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures [87][88][94] Palm Oil - Indonesia: The main palm oil-producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [98][107] - Malaysia: The palm oil-producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Sabah and Sarawak together account for over 45% of the output. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [101][107] Corn - Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) produces over 40% of the total output, and the spring corn harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) produces over 30% of the total output. Spring corn is about to be sown, and the summer corn harvest is over. In Southwest China, the corn output accounts for about 10% of the total output, and spring corn is in the sowing and emergence stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [118][119][123] Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total output and is generally sown from April to May. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for about 6% of the total output and is also generally sown from April to May. The harvest is over, and the precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [133][134][138] Apples - The Bohai Bay region (Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin) accounts for about 33% of the total output, and the apples are in the budding stage. The Loess Plateau region in the Northwest (Weibei in Shaanxi, southern and central Shanxi, Sanmenxia in Henan, and eastern Gansu) accounts for about 60% of the total output, and the apples are also in the budding stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [147][148][153] Dates - Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the total output and is generally sown in late April. The Loess Plateau region (Shanxi and Shaanxi) accounts for over 20% of the total output and is also generally sown in late April. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 20% of the total output, and the jujube harvest is over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [162][163][168] Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong account for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total output respectively, and are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [176][181][185] Beets - Xinjiang accounts for about 39% of the total output, and most are spring-sown, with the harvest over. The North China region accounts for about 57% of the total output, and most are also spring-sown, with the harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [190][195][199] Peanuts - Northeast China accounts for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 60% of the total output, and both spring and summer peanuts have been harvested. The South China region accounts for over 10% of the total output, and spring peanuts are in the germination and emergence stage, while autumn peanuts have been harvested. In the South China region, there is more rainfall in some areas, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in low-lying farmlands [204][205][211] Wheat - The Northwest region accounts for over 10% of the total output, mainly planting spring wheat, which is in the greening to standing stage. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 80% of the total output, mainly planting winter wheat, which is in the standing to jointing stage. There is more rainfall, which will aggravate the occurrence and development of wheat stripe rust and other diseases. The temperature conditions are suitable [220][225][229] Rice - Northeast China produces about 20% of the total output, and the single-season rice harvest is over. The Yangtze River Basin produces over 40% of the total output, with single and double-season rice coexisting. Early rice is in the sowing and emergence stage, single-season rice is in the sowing stage, and late rice has been harvested. Southwest China produces about 14% of the total output, mainly single-season double-cropping rice, with indica and japonica rice coexisting, and single-season rice is in the sowing and emergence stage. South China produces about 12.5% of the total output, mainly double-season indica rice, with multiple crops a year. Early rice is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and late rice has been harvested. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and other crops. The temperature conditions are suitable [234][239][241]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In late February 2026, the Southern Oscillation Index was 11, a typical La Niña atmospheric signal, but the oceanic La Niña state ended in January 2026, entering the ENSO neutral state. There is a mismatch between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it is possible to enter the El Niño state in the late spring [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The soil humidity in some areas of Malaysia and Indonesia is poor and may face drought risks [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - The Southern Oscillation Index value at the end of February 2026 was 11, indicating a typical La Niña atmospheric signal. The El Niño index as of the end of January 26 was -0.39, higher than the La Niña threshold, meaning the oceanic La Niña state ended in January and entered the ENSO neutral state [1] - There is a mismatch or lag in the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, which is a common scenario during the transition from La Niña to neutral (and possibly eventually to El Niño) in the ENSO cycle. El Niño may occur as early as April or as late as late summer or early autumn [1] Rainfall Conditions - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The rainfall in Jambi and Central Kalimantan in Indonesia was relatively less, and the rainfall in the Malay Peninsula remained scarce [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Soil Humidity Conditions - The soil humidity in Johor and Pahang in Malaysia is poor. In Indonesia, the soil in Riau, Jambi, the southeastern part of North Sumatra, the northeastern part of South Sumatra, a small part of West Kalimantan, and the southern part of Central Kalimantan is relatively dry. If the deep - soil humidity continues to decline, there will still be a drought risk in the future [2] - The monthly situation shows that the situation in the Malay Peninsula in April is expected to be slightly worse, but there may be a slight improvement after May [2] - The soil humidity in most parts of Indonesia improved in March, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula remained dry [14] Conditions of Each Production Area - **Jambi, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased at the end of the season, but the improvement in soil humidity was limited [24] - **West Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Rainfall was average, and the soil moisture decreased at the end of the month [30] - **Central Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Rainfall showed an increasing trend, and the soil humidity was restored [37] - **East Kalimantan, Indonesia**: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil humidity continued to be restored [45] - **Riau, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased limitedly, and the soil humidity continued to decline [53] - **South Sumatra, Indonesia**: Rainfall increased, but the soil moisture remained at a low level [60] - **North Sumatra, Indonesia**: Rainfall was limited, and the soil humidity did not improve [66] - **Johor, Malaysia**: Rainfall was scarce in the first quarter, and the soil moisture was poor [72] - **Pahang, Malaysia**: The rainfall was still scarce, and the increase in soil humidity was insufficient [79] - **Perak, Malaysia**: Rainfall was generally limited in the first quarter, and the soil humidity was insufficient [86] - **Sabah, Malaysia**: The cumulative rainfall was abundant, and the soil was relatively moist [92] - **Sarawak, Malaysia**: Rainfall was acceptable, and the soil humidity continued to rise [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural meteorological conditions for various crops, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, corn, cotton, apples, dates, sugarcane, beets, peanuts, wheat, and rice. It assesses the current growth stages, precipitation, and temperature conditions in different regions, and analyzes the potential impacts on crop production [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Meteorological Conditions - ENSO forecast: The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6]. - Domestic: South China's early rice is in the sowing and seedling - raising stage, and some have entered the three - leaf stage; Hainan's southern part is in the jointing stage. Southwest China's single - season rice, spring corn, and potatoes are in the sowing and emergence stage. Gansu and Ningxia's spring wheat is in the sowing and emergence stage. In Ningxia, the sowing progress of spring wheat is 71.48%, in Chongqing, the rice seedling - raising progress is 36.2%, and the spring corn sowing progress is 6.5%. Jianghuai, Jianghan, most of the Jiangnan region, Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, and Guizhou have frequent rainy weather, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering and pod - setting and spring plowing and sowing, with a high risk of waterlogging in some low - lying areas [7]. - International: US soybeans have not started sowing. Brazil is in the soybean harvesting period, and Argentina is in the soybean growing period. As of March 14, Brazil's soybean harvesting rate is 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4%. In the next 15 days, the southern part of the central - western soybean - producing area in Brazil will have less rainfall than normal, while the central and northern parts will have more rainfall; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is conducive to crop harvesting. In the next 15 days, most areas in Argentina's soybean - producing areas will have more rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture. European rapeseed is in the growing period. In the next 15 days, most of the key producing areas in Europe will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal. Indonesia and Malaysia have rainfall, but less than normal, with limited impact on palm fruit picking [7]. 2. Meteorological Conditions in Each Crop - Producing Area Soybeans - Chinese domestic: Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) accounts for over 60% of the total soybean output, and the Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 15%. Both regions have not started sowing [11][16]. - US: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. New - season soybeans usually start to be planted in mid - April. The 2025/26 US soybean harvest is over. The USDA supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 US soybean output is 115.75 million tons, lower than the previous year's 119.05 million tons. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will be higher than normal, and the rainfall will be lower than normal. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean - producing areas are in a drought state, with an increase in the severely - drought - affected area compared to last week and last year [26][29][35]. - Brazil: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central - western part, including Mato Grosso (28%), Paraná (13%), Rio Grande do Sul (11%), Goiás (11%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (9%). As of March 14, the soybean harvesting rate is 59.2%. The USDA report estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output to be 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, the southern part of the central - western soybean - producing area will have less rainfall than normal, while the central and northern parts will have more rainfall; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is conducive to crop harvesting [39][40][47]. - Argentina: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Buenos Aires (31%), Córdoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), and Santiago del Estero (9%), accounting for about 12% of the world's output. The soybeans are in the growing period. The USDA expects the 2025/26 output to be 48.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, most areas in the soybean - producing areas will have more rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [51][52][58]. Rapeseed - Chinese domestic: Northwest and North China plant spring rapeseed, accounting for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Yangtze River中下游 region and Southwest China plant winter rapeseed, accounting for about 50% and over 35% of the total output respectively, and are in the full - bloom stage. Some areas in these two regions have more rainfall, which affects rapeseed flowering and pod - setting. The temperature conditions are suitable [63][68][73]. - Canada: Canada is the world's largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 22% of the global output. Rapeseed is concentrated in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba), and the harvest is over. Statistics Canada estimates that the rapeseed sown area in 2025 will be 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in the three provinces will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be higher than normal, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [77][82]. - EU: The EU is the world's second - largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 20% of the global output. The rapeseed - growing areas are mainly distributed in France (21%), Germany (21%), Poland (18%), Romania (6%), etc. Rapeseed is in the growing period. The consulting firm Strategic Grains estimates that the 2025/26 rapeseed output of the 27 EU countries will be 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the 2024/25 period. In the next 15 days, most of the key producing areas in Europe will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal [86][87][93]. Palm Oil - Indonesia: The main palm - oil - producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. - Malaysia: The main palm - oil - producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak, with Sabah and Sarawak accounting for over 45% of the total output. Indonesia and Malaysia have rainfall, but less than normal, with limited impact on palm fruit picking. The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [97][100][106]. Corn - Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) grows spring corn, accounting for over 40% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region grows summer corn, accounting for over 30% of the total output, with spring corn about to be sown and summer corn harvest over. In Southwest China, corn accounts for about 10% of the total output, and spring corn is in the sowing and emergence stage. Some areas in Southwest China have more rainfall, which is unfavorable for spring plowing and sowing. The temperature conditions are suitable [117][118][123]. Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total cotton output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for about 6% of the total output, and the harvest is also over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [132][133][137]. Apples - The Bohai Bay region (Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin) accounts for about 33% of the total apple output, and the apples are in the budding stage. The Northwest Loess Plateau region (Weibei area in Shaanxi, southern and central Shanxi, Sanmenxia area in Henan, eastern Gansu, and Xinjiang) accounts for about 60% of the total output, and the apples are also in the budding stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [146][147][152]. Dates - Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the total date output, and the harvest is over. The Loess Plateau region (Shanxi, Shaanxi) and the Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui) each account for over 20% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [161][165][167]. Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong account for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total sugarcane output respectively, and are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [173][177][181]. Beets - Xinjiang accounts for about 39% of the total beet output, and most are spring - sown, with the harvest over. North China accounts for about 57% of the total output, and most are also spring - sown, with the harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [186][191][195]. Peanuts - Northeast China accounts for about 10% of the total peanut output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 60% of the total output, with both spring and summer peanuts' harvest over. The South China region accounts for over 10% of the total output, and spring peanuts are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [200][201][207]. Wheat - Northwest China accounts for over 10% of the total wheat output, mainly growing spring wheat, which is in the over - wintering to standing - up stage. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 80% of the total output, mainly growing winter wheat, which is in the standing - up to jointing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [216][221][225]. Rice - Northeast China grows japonica rice, with one crop a year, accounting for about 20% of the total output, and the single - season rice harvest is over. The Yangtze River中下游 region has both single - and double - cropping rice, accounting for over 40% of the total output, with early rice in the sowing stage, single - season rice in the sowing and emergence stage, and late rice harvest over. Southwest China mainly has single - season double - cropping rice, with indica and japonica rice coexisting, accounting for about 14% of the total output, and single - season rice is in the sowing and emergence stage. South China grows double - cropping indica rice, with multiple crops a year, accounting for about 12.5% of the total output, with early rice in the sowing stage and late rice harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [230][234][236].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6][112]. - In China, most crop harvests are over; some areas may face wet - damage affecting spring sowing and rapeseed flowering, and snow in some regions is unfavorable for facility agriculture [6]. - In international markets, US soybeans are not sown yet; Brazil is in the soybean - harvesting period, and Argentina is in the soybean - growing period. European rapeseed is in the growing period. Rainfall in key European rapeseed regions is mostly below normal, and high temperatures are unfavorable for soil moisture. Rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is normal, having less impact on palm fruit picking [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Weather - ENSO prediction shows high probabilities of La Nina in the coming months. Domestically, various weather conditions affect crop production and facility agriculture. Internationally, different crop - growing regions in the US, Brazil, Argentina, Europe, Indonesia, and Malaysia have their own weather situations influencing crop growth and harvest [6]. 3.2. Weather in Each Crop - Producing Area 3.2.1. Soybeans - **Domestic**: Northeast and Huanghuaihai regions have not started sowing. Northeast accounts for over 60% of total production, and Huanghuaihai accounts for over 15% [10][15]. - **US**: Concentrated in the central states, new - season sowing usually starts in mid - April. The 2025/26 yield is 11575000 tons, lower than the previous year. Future 6 - 10 days will see lower - than - normal temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall. Drought has increased by 1 percentage point compared to last week [24][29][33]. - **Brazil**: Concentrated in the Midwest. As of March 7, the 2025/26 harvest progress is 50.6%, higher than the five - year average but behind last year. The USDA estimates the 2025/26 yield at 18000000 tons. Future 15 days will have below - normal rainfall in the south and above - normal in the central and northern regions, with normal temperatures [37][44]. - **Argentina**: Concentrated in the central region, accounting for about 12% of the world's production. As of early February, it has entered the growing period. The USDA predicts the 2025/26 yield at 4850000 tons, a 5.11% year - on - year decrease. Future 15 days will see above - normal rainfall and normal temperatures [48][49][53]. 3.2.2. Rapeseed - **Domestic**: Spring rapeseed in the Northwest and North China has been harvested, accounting for about 10% of the total. Winter rapeseed in the Yangtze River中下游 and Southwest regions is in the flowering period, accounting for about 50% and over 35% respectively. Some areas may face wet - damage due to heavy rain, while the temperature is suitable [58][59][66]. - **Canada**: The world's largest producer, accounting for about 22%. Harvest is over. The 2025 sowing area is expected to decline by 1.7% compared to 2024. Future 15 days will have below - normal rainfall and above - normal temperatures, unfavorable for soil moisture [76][81]. - **EU**: The second - largest producer, accounting for about 20%. Rapeseed is in the growing period. The 2025/26 yield is expected to increase by 2200000 tons compared to 2024/25. Future 15 days will have most key regions with below - normal rainfall (except France), and above - normal temperatures, unfavorable for soil moisture [85][86][92]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Indonesia's main producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. Malaysia's are concentrated in five states, with Sabah and Sarawak accounting for over 45% of the total. Rainfall is normal, having less impact on palm fruit picking [96][99][106]. 3.2.4. Corn - In Northeast, Huanghuaihai, and Southwest regions, the harvest is over. Northeast accounts for over 40%, Huanghuaihai over 30%, and Southwest about 10% of the total production [116][117][123]. 3.2.5. Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total production, and Huanghuaihai accounts for about 6%. The harvest is over, and the temperature is suitable [132][133][141]. 3.2.6. Apple - The Bohai Bay and Northwest Loess Plateau regions, accounting for about 33% and 60% of the total respectively, are in the budding period, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [146][147][156]. 3.2.7. Red Dates - Xinjiang, the Loess Plateau, and Huanghuaihai regions, accounting for about 50%, over 20%, and over 20% respectively, have completed the harvest [161]. 3.2.8. Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong, accounting for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total respectively, are in the sowing period, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [173][178][182]. 3.2.9. Sugar Beet - Xinjiang and North China, accounting for about 39% and 57% of the total respectively, have completed the harvest, and both precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [187][192][196]. 3.2.10. Peanut - Northeast has completed the harvest, accounting for about 10% of the total. Huanghuaihai has completed the spring and summer peanut harvests, accounting for over 60%. South China is in the spring peanut sowing period and has completed the autumn peanut harvest, accounting for over 10%. Precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable in relevant periods [201][202][208]. 3.2.11. Wheat - Northwest, mainly growing spring wheat, is in the over - wintering to standing - up period, accounting for over 10% of the total. Huanghuaihai, mainly growing winter wheat, is in the turning - green to standing - up period, accounting for over 80%. Precipitation is suitable in both regions, but snow and rain in the Northwest are unfavorable for crops [217][222][227]. 3.2.12. Rice - Northeast, growing single - season japonica rice, has completed the harvest, accounting for about 20% of the total. The Yangtze River中下游, with both single - and double - season rice, has the early - rice sowing period and completed the single - and late - rice harvests, accounting for over 40%. Southwest has completed the single - season rice harvest, accounting for about 14%. South China, growing double - season indica rice, has the early - rice sowing period and completed the late - rice harvest, accounting for about 12.5%. Precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [232][236][239].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report focuses on the impact of the Iran - US situation on various financial and commodity markets. The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets. It has affected the prices of precious metals, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and various commodities, and different markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and geopolitical factors [2][3][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's new supreme leader calls for continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices. The two - year US Treasury yield has been rising, and funds are flowing to more certain crude oil and chemical products, putting pressure on precious metals. Short - term liquidity tightening expectations increase, and precious metals are under pressure [3][12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of decline [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary says the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and is not worried about the fiscal cost of the Iran war. Trump's positive attitude towards the Iran war reduces the short - term possibility of TACO, weakens market risk appetite, and causes the US dollar to rise [14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to strengthen [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran's new leader states that it will not give up revenge and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister says the navy is not ready for escort. The short - term situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the high oil price has led to inflation concerns and a decrease in the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on the US stock market [17][18]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Tax data shows that the sales of high - tech industries in the first two months have increased well. The US has launched a "301" clause investigation against 16 countries and regions. The tense situation between the US and Iran has led to high energy prices, affecting the stock market. Energy and coal - chemical stocks are strong, while technology stocks are weak [20][21]. - Investment advice: For the stock index, it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and go long on IM and short on IF for the hedging arbitrage strategy [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 24.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is a short - term disturbance. Inflation is likely to be the main factor in the bond market. As time goes by, the probability of an increase in the oil price center is rising. After the market digests the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [23]. - Investment advice: After the market digests the positive news, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 12, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The market trading was cold, and the downstream purchasing intention was poor. As the conflict continues, the probability of the domestic port spot price rising after 1 - 2 months is increasing [25]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to overseas energy and oil and gas changes [25]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their routes to China. The BHP long - term contract negotiation has affected the market, and the iron ore price has been impacted by factors such as rising crude oil costs and negotiation disturbances in the past week, but the market trading sentiment is not high [26][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [27]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased. As of March 12, the inventory of five major varieties increased slightly, with the inventory of building materials increasing and the inventory of coils starting to decrease slightly. The cost is supported by energy prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of steel prices [28][29]. - Investment advice: Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals still limit the upward space [30]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - La Nina is about to end, and El Nino may come in the middle of the year. The increase in crude oil prices, CBOT soybean futures prices, and shipping costs has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China. The market is worried about the shortage of imported soybeans from March to April, and the near - month futures price of soybean meal has reached a new high [5][31][33]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal may remain strong in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East situation, US biofuel policy, Sino - US relations, China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic reserves, customs policies, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans from March to April [33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the weather warms up, and the port inventory in the south is accumulating. The downstream demand has support, but there are still risks such as concentrated grain sales in the Northeast and potential disturbances from wheat auctions [34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited. Pay attention to weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium production guidance of Australian Liontown in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged. The inventory of lithium carbonate shows different trends in different sectors. The supply is affected by multiple factors, and the demand in March has increased as expected. In the short term, the demand is supported, but there are uncertainties in the long term [36][37][38]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot is relatively loose, but the direct demand is still supported. In the long term, there is a high - level logic of new energy replacing old energy. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the price correction [39]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have declined slightly, mainly following the fluctuations of precious metals. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium have changed. In the short term, they may fluctuate, and platinum may perform better than palladium [40][41][42]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, use the reverse - spread idea for the month - spread, wait and see for the internal - external spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [42]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The import of refined lead has increased, and the consumption of lead is weak. The price of lead may continue to be weak, but there is support at the cost of recycled lead [43][44]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see [45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has increased. The geopolitical situation affects the zinc market, and the domestic supply and demand are weak. The zinc price has priced in the previous disturbances, and the risk of recession trading is increasing [46][48]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see for the month - spread and maintain the internal - external positive - spread idea in the medium term [49]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony Gold has achieved copper production, and the environmental assessment of Peru's Trapiche copper project has been approved. The new situation in the Middle East has reignited concerns about rising energy prices, and the short - term copper price will be affected by negative sentiment. The domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot is expected to maintain a premium [50][51][53]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term; for the arbitrage strategy, pay attention to the internal - external positive - spread operation [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin shows a discount, and the domestic warehouse receipts of tin futures have increased. The supply of tin ore has eased in the short term, but there are uncertainties in the long term. The demand is currently weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: Affected by the situation in the Middle East, it will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [57]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore has increased. The price difference between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has reversed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger. As long as the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz does not make a breakthrough, the price difference is expected to continue to widen [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: There is still an upward risk in the short - term price of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil [61]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On March 12, the PX price increase expanded. The supply of PX is affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the downstream polyester factories' willingness to reduce production has increased. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expectation of continuous inventory reduction, PX is expected to remain strong in the short term [62][63]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased. The trading logic of styrene is related to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. If the flow rate cannot recover to more than 25% of the normal level by the end of March or early April, there is a risk of a short squeeze in April. The long - term impact may lead to an increase in the price center of mid - stream chemicals [64][65][66]. - Investment advice: The high volatility of the absolute price of styrene is expected to continue. In a high - volatility state, it is recommended to use light positions. Be vigilant against the potential short - squeeze risk [66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased. The glass market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The follow - up inventory reduction is difficult [67]. - Investment advice: The glass futures may fluctuate greatly in the short term due to the impact of the energy market and its own low price [67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of March 12, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The soda ash market is affected by energy prices, but the supply is still in a state of over - capacity. There is short - term support, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the energy price inflection point [68][69]. 2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping has stopped all services at a port in Panama. The spot market has both positive and negative factors. The cost of long - term contracts is rising, but the short - term cargo - booking pressure is still large. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely [70][71][72]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is neutral - slightly bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sugar price is affected by energy price transmission, with raw sugar being strong. Although the domestic market is in the off - season, cost support and increased volatility in the external market make the price strong [3] - Various institutions have lowered the surplus expectations for the 2025/26 sugar season. The ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122 tons, a 41 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; Czarnikow predicts a 670 - ton surplus, a 70 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - In the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase; India's sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year; Thailand has a slight production increase expectation [3] - As of the end of January, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year [3][57] - There is a profit within the quota, but the import volume in January is expected to be low [3] - The sugar industrial inventory is 419 tons, a 43 - ton year - on - year increase [3] - The ethanol - to - oil ratio fluctuates greatly. The short - term rapid increase in crude oil prices stimulates the demand for ethanol [3] - The raw - white sugar price difference is $107 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Production - Brazil: In the second half of January, the sugar production in the central - southern region was 0.5 tons, a 36.31% year - on - year decrease. As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production was 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase. The ethanol production in the second half of January was 439 million liters, a 9.31% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative ethanol production was 3.1706 billion liters, a 4.64% year - on - year decrease [20][23] - India: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar production was 2463 tons, a 262.5 - ton year - on - year increase, and the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a 0.13% year - on - year increase. The sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year [35] Supply and Demand - ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season will be 181.29 million tons, a 480,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 122,000 tons, a 41,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast [8] - Czarnikow predicts a 670,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2026/27 sugar season, lower than the 274,000 - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season [8] Export - As of the week ending February 25, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 1.4617 million tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease. The sugar export volume in Brazil decreased to 2.0175 million tons in January, and the export is expected to continue to slow down [32] Domestic Market Production and Sales - As of the end of January in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, although it is the off - season, the futures market is strong, driving up the spot price, and the sales are okay [3][57] Import - In January, Brazil exported only 0.01 tons of sugar to China, which eases the domestic supply pressure. There is no import volume outside the quota for now. Thailand may be another import source, but the impact is limited [70] Market Indicators - The basis has converged with the rise of the futures market. There is no obvious trend in the monthly spread. In terms of the single - side situation, the global sugar market is in a high - yield cycle, but Brazil's production is slightly lower than expected after being finalized. The year - on - year growth rate of India's sugar production has slowed down. The war between the US, Israel, and Iran may support the sugar price through ethanol price transmission. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, although the actual driving force is limited, the spot price has limited downward space under the policy support, which is beneficial to the far - month contracts [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a weekly agricultural meteorological analysis, covering the weather conditions and growth stages of various crops in different regions at home and abroad. It also includes ENSO forecasts, which are crucial for understanding the potential impact on crop growth and harvest [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - **Domestic**: Most domestic crop harvests are completed. The weather is favorable for the growth of rapeseed and winter wheat [5]. - **International**: The soybean harvest in the US is over. In South America, soybean sowing is finished, and the crops are in the growing stage. Early - sown soybeans in Brazil have started to be harvested. As of February 7, the soybean filling rate in Brazil's 25/26 season is 38.8%, the maturity rate is 25.6%, and the harvest rate is 17.4%. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas in Brazil will have less rainfall than normal, while the eastern part will have more. Most areas will have normal temperatures. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, while most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures. In Europe, key producing areas will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal. In Indonesia and Malaysia, heavy rainfall will affect palm fruit picking [5]. - **ENSO Forecast**: The probability of La Nina is 69% from January to March, 86% from February to April, and 88% from March to May [5]. 3.2 Meteorological Analysis of Each Crop - Producing Area 3.2.1 Soybean - **Domestic**: In Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia), soybean production accounts for over 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui), soybean production accounts for over 15% of the total, and the harvest is also completed [9]. - **US**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part. The 2025/26 US soybean harvest is over, with a production of 115.75 million tons, lower than the previous year's 119.05 million tons. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will be lower than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation has worsened compared to the previous week and the same period last year [24][29][33]. - **Brazil**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central - western part. As of February 7, the sowing rate of the 25/26 season is 99.7%, the harvest progress is 17.4%. The US Department of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production to be 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas will have less rainfall than normal, and the eastern part will have more, which will affect the crop harvest [37][41]. - **Argentina**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, accounting for about 12% of the world's production. As of early February, the soybean sowing is completed, and the crops are in the growing stage. The US Department of Agriculture expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, and most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures, which is beneficial to soil moisture [46][47][53]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed - **Domestic**: In the Northwest and North China, spring rapeseed production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest, winter rapeseed is in the budding and bolting stage, and the current conditions are suitable [57][58]. - **Canada**: Canada is the world's largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 22% of the global production. The rapeseed harvest is completed. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 will be 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in the three major provinces will have normal rainfall and higher - than - normal temperatures [72][78]. - **EU**: The EU is the world's second - largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 20% of the global production. Rapeseed is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the 2025/26 rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries will be 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, the key producing areas in Europe will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal [82][83][88]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - **Indonesia and Malaysia**: The main palm - oil - producing areas in Indonesia are Sumatra and Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Currently, heavy rainfall in both countries will affect palm fruit picking. The probability of La Nina is 86% from February to April [94][97][102]. 3.2.4 Other Crops - **Corn**: In Northeast China, spring corn production accounts for over 40% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, summer corn production accounts for over 30% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed. In the Southwest, corn production accounts for about 10% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed [113][114][115]. - **Cotton**: In Xinjiang, cotton production accounts for about 90% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, cotton production accounts for about 6% of the total, and the harvest is completed [129][130]. - **Apple**: In the Bohai Bay region, apple production accounts for about 33% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Northwest Loess Plateau region, apple production accounts for about 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed [143][144]. - **Jujube**: In Xinjiang, jujube production accounts for about 50% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Loess Plateau region (Shanxi, Shaanxi) and the Huang - Huai - Hai region, jujube production accounts for over 20% of the total respectively, and the harvests are completed [157]. - **Sugarcane**: In Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong, sugarcane production accounts for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total respectively, and the crops are in the harvest period, with suitable current conditions [169]. - **Beet**: In Xinjiang, beet production accounts for about 39% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In North China, beet production accounts for about 57% of the total, and the harvest is completed [183]. - **Peanut**: In Northeast China, peanut production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, peanut production accounts for over 60% of the total, and both spring and summer peanut harvests are completed. In the South China region, peanut production accounts for over 10% of the total, and both spring and autumn peanut harvests are completed [197][198][199]. - **Wheat**: In Northwest China, wheat production accounts for over 10% of the total, mainly spring wheat. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, wheat production accounts for over 80% of the total, mainly winter wheat, which is in the over - wintering period, and the current conditions are suitable [213][214]. - **Rice**: In Northeast China, japonica rice production accounts for about 20% of the total, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, single - and double - season rice coexist, and the early - season rice, single - season rice, and late - season rice harvests are completed. In the Southwest, single - season double - cropping rice is the main type, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In South China, double - season indica rice is planted, and both early - season and late - season rice harvests are completed [228].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Climate Dynamics**: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - **Chinese Producing Areas**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - **Foreign Producing Areas**: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **Chinese Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - **South Asian Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - **West African Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]