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蛋白粕月报:供应宽松未改,偏弱运行-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 15:18
蛋白粕月报 2025/10/10 供应宽松未改,偏弱运行 斯小伟(农产品组) 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号: F03114441 交易咨询号: Z0022498 目录 05 需求端 03 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆:9月美豆震荡偏弱,全球大豆供需格局未看到明显利好,月中阿根廷为筹集外汇降价销售豆粕、大豆、豆油,打压国际豆粕、大 豆价格。巴西升贴水报价本月小幅下调,美豆上市季节对巴西升贴水有些许抑制。当前美豆估值处于略低位置,巴西升贴水有一定下跌空间, 由于全球大豆供应端仍然未看到显著下降态势,预计国内大豆进口成本震荡偏弱。此外,是否进口美国大豆暂未有定论,特朗普称10月底将 与中国讨论大豆问题,若中国持续不进口美豆,巴西报价将维持强势,豆粕存在一定支撑,若部分或完全开放进口美豆,豆粕市场可能会先 交易短期供应压力盘面下跌,而后美豆与巴西升贴水博弈结束,进而进口成本企稳,豆粕市场再去交易成本。 国内双粕:9月国内豆粕现货下跌,基差上涨,期货盘面回归现货为主,油厂压榨利润下行。国内成交回落,提货处于偏高水平月底有所下 降。饲料企业库存天数9.6天略 ...
今冬天然气价格可能暴涨?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-10 07:53
本文来自格隆汇专栏:能源新媒 作者:瞿新荣 冬季气温如何,需求怎样,会不会有供应风险是9-11月LNG市场比较关心问题。当前气候跟踪,2025-26年冬季拉尼娜概率上升——极端的气温变化可能 是需求迅速放大导火索,需要引起关注。此外,冬季会不会有供应中断风险?往年主要供应风险来自俄乌地缘冲突、澳大利亚港口罢工、飓风、巴拿马运 河拥堵等几个方面,目前看,最可能的供应风险来自地缘冲突与气温两方面。2025-26冬季LNG现货可能由于较低价格,以及冬季补库阶段性冲高,在冬 季旺季回到5000元/吨以上。 2025年2月份以来,上海石油天然气交易中心发布的LNG出厂价格一度呈现回落趋势(图1),在中国经济增速减缓"低通胀"背景下,天然气作为消耗量仅 次于石油和煤炭的清洁能源,今冬价格走势再次成为市场关注焦点。本文将探析天然气当前需求与价格走势。 图1: 2023-2025年LNG东北亚现货及国内出厂价走势 天然气内需疲弱,工业消费回落 1.1 天然气消费历史与趋势 1995-2003年,中国天然气消费量从172亿立方米增长到331亿立方米,10年间天然气消费量维持在200亿~300亿立方米左右,增长缓慢。1997年建 ...
2025年四季度橡胶策略报告-20250929
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].
卫星遥感监测产量预估及下半年天气分析报告
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 03:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report uses satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and historical yield models to estimate the yields of key global agricultural products in August 2025 and monitor their growth. The estimated yields of key monitored crops have increased to varying degrees. - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50%-60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long-term drought. - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Varieties, Time Window, and Method**: The monitoring cycle covers the growth period of crops in the Northern Hemisphere in August 2025. The monitored varieties include US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil. The time - cycle spans 20 years from 2005 to 2025, using current and historical data. The monitoring uses 24 key indicators from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, and a self - built yield model based on a deep - learning algorithm [6][7][12]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: Overall, the growth and development of key crops in each region are in good condition, and the yields are generally on the rise. The US soybean and corn regions are likely to set historical records. Cotton yields have increased compared to the previous month. Canadian rapeseed yields are expected to reach 2.27 tons per hectare, and Australian rapeseed yields have been raised to 1.79 tons per hectare [13]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra have increased, while those in Kalimantan have declined. Only precipitation in the Malay Peninsula has increased, and temperature and humidity have fluctuated moderately [16][19]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in most states have increased significantly. The growth of soybeans and corn in the Midwest has reached a new high, and the eastern region is also above the historical average. Precipitation shows regional differentiation, and soil humidity in most states has increased significantly. Temperature fluctuations are moderate [25][30][31]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices show a differentiated trend, with Oklahoma showing overall growth and the southeast experiencing a decline in LAI. Precipitation varies greatly, and soil humidity fluctuates slightly. Temperatures in the southeast have decreased, while those in Oklahoma and Texas have slightly increased [40][41][45]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. Analysis of the Trends of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Second Half of the Year - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50% - 60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long - term drought [2]. Analysis of the Future Weather Trends in South America - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2].
蛋白粕周报:巴西报价上涨,豆粕锚定成本-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 13:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - External soybean market: The valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal is at a low level. The Brazilian soybean quote is supported by Chinese vessel purchases and Sino - US trade relations. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation with support and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - amplitude upward oscillation due to a single supply source [9]. - Domestic double - meal market: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures this week. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided some support, but previous soybean meal vessel purchases and the information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoting the reduction of soybean meal consumption may continue to suppress the valuation. The domestic market had good transactions this week, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The soybean inventory in China may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and oscillate before that. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans were weakly declining this week due to good weather bringing harvest pressure and the lack of positive impact on US soybean exports from Sino - US negotiations. The USDA August monthly report may maintain the July report's inventory - to - sales ratio of 7.06% for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and 29.65% for global soybeans in the 25/26 season [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided support, but previous vessel purchases and the promotion of reduced soybean meal consumption may suppress the valuation. As of the end of last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises slightly decreased to 8.05 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The vessel purchase schedule indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September [9]. - **Strategies**: In the soybean meal market, try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. For arbitrage, widen the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: There are charts showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: There are charts showing the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. [23][24]. - **Fund Positions**: There are charts showing the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: There are charts showing the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There are charts showing the weighted precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and there is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January [35][38]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: There are charts showing the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate, etc. [52][53]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: There are charts showing China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts [55][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: There are charts showing the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills [61][62]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills [64][65]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: There are charts showing the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: There are charts showing the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [68][69]. - **Breeding Profit**: There are charts showing the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [71][72].
美国气象预报中心(CPC):到秋末和初冬时期,倾向于保持厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)中性状态,但信心较低,ENSO中性的概率为48%,拉尼娜的概率为41%。
news flash· 2025-07-17 13:02
Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a tendency to maintain a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by late autumn and early winter, but confidence in this forecast is low [1] - The probability of ENSO neutral conditions is estimated at 48%, while the probability of La Niña conditions is at 41% [1]
年底可能出现拉尼娜,推升蛋白粕做多情绪
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 08:34
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].
大豆与棕榈市场:加菜籽出口降,巴西产量增
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 13:40
Group 1 - The domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets have experienced significant dynamics recently, particularly in soybean and rapeseed meal and oil sectors [1] - Canadian canola seed exports sharply decreased by 72.1% in the week of July 6, dropping from 173,500 tons to 48,400 tons [1] - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 8, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's CONAB forecasts a soybean production of 169.4879 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 21.766 million tons year-on-year [1] - The USDA reported that net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 season increased to 503,000 tons, with cumulative sales reaching 50.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 million tons [1] - The U.S. imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products will raise farm costs, impact the soybean supply chain, and pose risks to international markets [1] Group 3 - In the palm oil sector, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.52% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production fell to 1,692,310 tons in June, a month-on-month decline of 4.48%, marking the first decrease in four months [1] - Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose to 2,030,580 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [1]
2025年大豆期货半年度行情展望:供需双增,震荡为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the US soybean futures will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core operating range between 900 - 1150 cents per bushel [2]. - The supply is loose, which suppresses the upper limit; the cost provides support at the lower limit; and there is a structural differentiation in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 US Soybean Futures Trend Review - January - February: South American weather factors and Sino - US trade friction expectations jointly pushed up prices. Adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil affected supply, and Chinese crushers' concentrated purchases of US soybeans due to potential trade risks increased demand [7]. - March: The market showed "expected - realization" characteristics, and the improvement of Brazil's harvesting progress led to price corrections. After the tariff announcements, the price first declined and then rebounded, and later entered a sideways - shock pattern [7]. - April: The downward adjustment of the new - crop area estimate and the end of the trade - war negative news led to a V - shaped reversal in price and then maintained a shock. The expected reduction in the US soybean planting area and the market's expectation of tariff reduction drove the price movement [8]. - May: The easing of trade tensions led to narrow price fluctuations. The Sino - US agreement improved the trade outlook and increased the market's expectation of China's demand recovery [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Framework: A Volatile Pattern under the Game of Bulls and Bears 3.2.1 Supply Side: Structural Contradictions in the Loose Pattern - Global oilseeds: In the 2025/26 season, the global oilseed market will see a mild increase in both supply and demand. The total output of seven core oilseed varieties is expected to reach 692.1 million tons (+2.2% year - on - year), and the total consumption is expected to reach 687.65 million tons (+2.9% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio will remain at 20.8%. The market is expected to continue the range - bound trend [13]. - Global soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output and consumption will both increase. The output is expected to reach 426.82 million tons, and the consumption will reach 424.05 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 20.3%, but it is still at a relatively high level, indicating an overall supply - surplus situation [20]. - Brazil: The soybean harvesting area is expected to increase to 48.8 million hectares, and the output is expected to reach a record 175 million tons. Domestic consumption and exports are also expected to increase. However, the final output depends on the weather during the growing season [22][23]. - US: The soybean harvesting area is expected to decrease by about 1.35 million hectares. The output is expected to be 111.8 million tons, a slight decrease. Exports are expected to decrease, while domestic consumption is expected to increase. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 6.7%, indicating a tight - balance supply - demand situation [26]. - Argentina: In the 2025/26 season, the soybean output is expected to be 48.5 million tons, and the domestic consumption is expected to be 50.5 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 13.2%, indicating a balanced supply - demand relationship [29]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: The Rigid Growth of Protein Meal Consumption - The feed protein raw material supply pattern is diversified, with soybean meal accounting for 70% of the market share. In the 2025/26 season, the global protein raw material consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The total consumption is expected to exceed 394.78 million tons, an increase of 14.82 million tons (+3.9% year - on - year) [33][34]. - Since 2020, the global protein meal consumption has shown a differentiated growth trend. Rapeseed meal has the highest consumption growth rate, and emerging economies have become the main driving force for the growth of protein meal consumption [40]. 3.3 Trading Strategies: Trading Opportunities in a Volatile Market 3.3.1 US Soybean Prices in H2 2025: Mainly Sideways - Shocking - The global oilseed market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall supply is relatively loose. The high - yield pressure in South America and the cost support in North America form a game of bulls and bears. It is expected that the US soybean prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the second half of 2025 [42]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Band - buying based on cost support. Buy at the level of 900 - 950 cents per bushel, set the stop - loss at around 880 cents per bushel, and the target price at 1100 - 1150 cents per bushel [44]. - Strategy 2: A positive spread strategy of buying January and selling May. Due to the tight US soybean balance sheet and the probability of Brazil's continued expansion of planting, this strategy is highly feasible, and the better buying times are July and October [45].
橡胶周报:留意低位支撑-20250622
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 13:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is optimistic about the increase in rubber production in 2025, but the rebound after the low - level of rubber prices is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level support, and aggressive investors can hold long positions. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on br and short on ru [6]. - The macro - environment is complex, with intensified Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Trade negotiations between China and the US may be volatile. Real - estate data is poor, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Macro: Middle - East geopolitical conflicts intensify. China cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, while the Fed keeps rates unchanged with two expected cuts this year. Sino - US trade negotiations may be volatile. Real - estate data is worse than expected, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. - Supply: The market is optimistic about 2025 rubber production increase. The large - cycle production capacity inflection point has arrived, but production inertia remains. The warming of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean weakens negative factors [6]. - Inventory: Qingdao dry - rubber inventory has stopped accumulating at a low level and slightly decreased, possibly due to downstream restocking. Exchange ru and nr warehouse receipts are at low levels. Cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory has rebounded to a high since 2017, and Shandong semi - steel tire finished - product inventory is much higher than last year [6]. - Demand: The domestic passenger - car price war has intensified, raising concerns about inventory pressure and weak demand. Real - estate and infrastructure construction are saturated. Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025. Construction machinery sales are low, and cement production has a deeper year - on - year negative growth as of May. Passenger - car sales are strong but may have over - consumed [6]. - Strategy: Pay attention to low - level support, aggressive investors hold long positions. Focus on the arbitrage of going long on br and short on ru [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber prices rebounded and then declined, with some varieties having large declines. The upstream oil price rebounded, but the price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, was weak. The absolute price of old whole - latex spot is lower than last year and near the median of recent years [8][12]. - The ru basis has strengthened marginally. The month - spread has also strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions. The Ru9 - 1 month - spread is around - 800 in contango, the Nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread is around 50 and continues to weaken, and the br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread has reversed to around 120 and is weakening marginally [15][20]. - The spot whole - latex to 20 - grade rubber spread has fallen to a low level again, and the 20 - grade rubber has a high virtual - to - real ratio. Synthetic rubber Br has rebounded relative to natural rubber [25]. - Thai raw material prices have declined marginally, and the spread between latex and cup lump has increased. Currently, rubber is being tapped globally with normal weather conditions [29]. - Processing profits have declined again recently [36]. 3.3 Inventory End - Qingdao dry - rubber inventory decreased rapidly from August 2023 to mid - October 2024 to a low since 2017, and now the low - level accumulation has stopped with a slight decrease. Butadiene port inventory has rebounded [40][45]. - The ru delivery product inventory is at a low level; the nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a 5 - year high to the median level after the third quarter and are now rebounding from an extremely low level [50][56]. - Cis - polybutadiene rubber factory and trader inventories have rebounded from low levels. Tire factory and downstream trade inventories are high [59][61]. 3.4 Supply End - According to ANRPC adjusted data, the cumulative natural rubber production of member countries from January to December 2024 decreased by less than 0.5% year - on - year. China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [64]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years due to eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In 2025, the import data of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly, with a 17% year - on - year increase in March and a 21% increase in the first three months [68]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - side production capacity has arrived, and the bottom support is becoming stronger. However, production is affected by weather, pests, and profit margins, and demand affected by macro and policies determines the upper limit. There are signs of aging rubber tree age structure in production areas, especially in Indonesia [80]. 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire operating rate has rebounded to the median of the multi - year range, exceeding last year's level, while the semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded slightly lower than last year and is at a high in the multi - year range [87]. - As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of tire outer - tube production is about 3% and is marginally declining, with a much slower growth rate than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth of tire exports as of May is about 9%, performing relatively well but lower than last year [92]. - Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025 [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) are strong due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion. However, the price war has intensified, and exports face challenges such as tariffs. The support from passenger cars may be limited due to the weak real - estate and infrastructure [101]. - Overseas automobile sales are generally average, with the US and Japan seeing rebounds, but the EU performing poorly. Trade wars have disrupted consumption patterns [105]. - Cement production had negative growth last year and has marginally improved this year, but the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened as of May [111]. - Transportation investment is a key measure for stable growth but has limited effect due to infrastructure saturation. Excavator sales rebounded and then softened [115]. - Real - estate data from January to May 2025 has deteriorated, bringing pessimism. Given the long real - estate cycle and unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time [121]. - Road freight volume is stable but lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and substitution by railway and waterway transportation [124].