农业气象周报 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018451 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、周度重点气象 2、各农作物产区气象 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 「 周度重点关注气象」 3 u 国内方面，国内多数农作物收获结束。天气利于油菜籽、冬麦作物生长。 u 国际方面，美豆大豆收获结束。南美大豆播种结束，处于生长期，巴西早播大豆开始收获。截至2月7日， 巴西25/26年度大豆灌浆率38.8%，成熟率25.6%，收获率17.4%。未来15天，巴西中西部大豆产区西部 降雨低于常值，东部降雨高于常值；大多数地区气温正常。东部降雨较多影响作物收获。未来15天，阿 根廷大豆产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨低于常值，其他主要产区大多降雨高于常值。圣地亚哥-德尔埃斯 特罗省北部气温高于常值，其他地区气温正常。降雨增加有利于土壤墒情。未来15天欧洲关键产区降雨 高于常值，气温高于常值。印尼和马来西亚降雨较多，降雨高于常值，将影响棕榈果采摘。 u ENSO预测：1月至3月拉尼娜概率69%。2月至4月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Climate Dynamics**: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - **Chinese Producing Areas**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - **Foreign Producing Areas**: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **Chinese Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - **South Asian Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - **West African Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]

Summary of Conference Call on Agricultural Products Industry Overview - The conference focused on the agricultural products sector, particularly on major grains, soybeans, and corn, amidst significant price fluctuations in international commodities [1][17]. Key Points on Soybean Meal - Recent volatility in soybean meal prices, with the main contract reaching a high of 2800 RMB per ton before declining due to macroeconomic sentiment [1][2]. - Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, with production estimates raised from 1.7 million tons to 1.8 million tons, contributing to bearish sentiment in soybean meal prices [2][4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest was 11.4% complete, slightly behind the five-year average of 11.8% [2][4]. - Brazilian soybean freight rates have decreased, indicating a potential increase in supply, although internal transport costs remain high due to truck demand [3][4]. - The impact of La Niña weather patterns on soybean production is significant, particularly for Argentina, where adverse conditions could lead to reduced yields [6][8][9]. Key Points on Corn - Domestic corn production is expected to be higher than last year, but quality issues in North China due to weather have led to a shortage of high-quality corn for feed [18][19]. - Low inventory levels in the supply chain have been noted, with trade sentiment being bearish prior to December, leading to lower stocking rates [36]. - The overall corn market is characterized by a balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to remain stable despite potential tightening in April [22][23]. - The influence of external factors, such as weather patterns and import policies, is crucial in determining future corn prices [22][26]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring weather patterns, particularly La Niña and El Niño, as they significantly affect agricultural yields and market dynamics [6][8][34]. - The relationship between corn and soybean prices is complex, with potential for substitution depending on price differentials and market conditions [29][30]. - The overall sentiment in the agricultural sector remains cautious, with expectations of stable prices unless significant weather events occur [34][35]. Conclusion - The agricultural products sector is currently experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, weather conditions, and supply chain dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor these variables closely for potential opportunities and risks in the market [1][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the central - southern region of Brazil is in the tillering stage of sugarcane. The low precipitation and soil humidity in the region have affected the growth of sugarcane in the new season, and the current soil humidity is still at a historically low level, which is not conducive to sugarcane jointing. It is expected that from late January to early February, the increase in rainfall will improve soil humidity and help sugarcane elongation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugarcane Growth Conditions in Brazil - The central - southern region of Brazil is in the tillering stage of the 26/27 sugarcane season. This stage requires a continuous high - temperature environment (effective accumulated temperature of 5000 - 6500℃) and an increase in water demand (water holding capacity of 65% - 70%). Low temperature and drought will affect sugarcane growth [1]. - Affected by La Nina, the overall precipitation in the central - southern region of Brazil is low. Recent precipitation has been scarce, and although the soil humidity has slightly improved, it is still at a historically low level. Forecasts indicate that precipitation will seasonally increase from late January to early February, which is expected to improve soil humidity [1]. Global Sugarcane Growth Cycle and Conditions - Different countries have different sugarcane growth cycles. For example, in Brazil, the central - southern region is in the tillering - elongation stage from January - February, and the northeastern region has different growth stages at different times. India, Thailand, and China also have their own unique growth cycles [10]. - Different growth stages of sugarcane have different requirements for temperature, precipitation, and light. For example, the tillering - elongation stage requires high accumulated temperature, a large amount of water, and strong light [10]. Global Sugarcane Production and Trade - Brazil has the largest sugarcane planting area globally. About 50% - 60% of its sugarcane is used to produce ethanol, and its sugar production depends on the profit comparison between sugar and ethanol. It is also the world's largest sugar exporter, with sugar exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its production [17]. - India is the second - largest sugar producer globally, and its production is greatly affected by natural factors. It is also the world's largest sugar consumer, and its production determines whether it exports sugar [17]. - Thailand is the second - largest sugar exporter in most years, with sugar exports accounting for 70% - 85% of its production, although its production is only about 1000 million tons [17]. Sugarcane Planting in China - The sugarcane planting area in southern China is relatively stable, while the beet planting area in northern China is determined by farmers based on planting income. Guangxi is the largest sugar - producing area in China, accounting for over 60%, and Chongzuo is known as the "Sugar Capital" of China, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - cane area [15].

2026 年 01 月 23 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,944 | 涨跌幅 1.27% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,914 | 涨跌幅 -0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,084 | 0.50% | 8,084 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,002 | 0.61% | 8,966 | -0.40% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,198 | 1.06% | 4,178 | -0.45% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.74 | -0.50% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 502,993 | 15880 | 467,244 | 21,301 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 262,334 ...

| | | | V V & SUIL FUIURES | | 2026年01月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约大幅减仓,价格下跌。国产大豆本周三中储粮举行双向竞价专场,计划竞价拍卖数量3.3万 吨，全部成交，成交低价为3950元/吨，成交均价为3950元/吨,溢价为零。溢价程度不如前期表现。持续关注 政策端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global weather patterns and its subsequent effects on various industries, including agriculture, energy, and consumer goods, highlighting the interconnectedness of climate events and economic conditions [3][7]. Group 1: La Niña Phenomenon - La Niña is characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns and has been identified as a contributing factor to recent extreme weather events in China [9][10]. - The current La Niña state, which began in October 2025, is expected to last until early 2026 but may not develop into a full event, leading to complex weather impacts such as "south drought, north flood" patterns [10][11]. Group 2: Agricultural Impact - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to disrupt food supply chains, with a notable decline in crop yields in the Southern Hemisphere, including an over 11% drop in corn production and a downward adjustment in soybean yields, which will affect global agricultural prices [10][11]. - As the largest importer of soybeans, China may face increased pork and poultry prices due to rising feed costs, leading to inflationary pressures in the meat market [10]. Group 3: Energy Sector Effects - The onset of cold weather has increased coal consumption in power generation, with a reported 12% rise in daily coal usage in October 2025, while natural gas demand is projected to grow significantly due to colder winter conditions [11][13]. - The fluctuations in energy demand and supply could lead to increased prices for electricity and heating, impacting both consumers and industries reliant on stable energy costs [11][13]. Group 4: Consumer Market Trends - The La Niña phenomenon has spurred a surge in demand for winter clothing and heating appliances, with sales of down jackets and electric heating products seeing significant year-on-year increases of 46% and over 200%, respectively [32]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards products that offer enhanced functionality and design, with a notable rise in demand for high-tech materials and products tailored for specific winter needs [33][34]. Group 5: Climate Adaptation Strategies - China is enhancing its climate response strategies, integrating weather monitoring and emergency preparedness into macroeconomic governance, with a focus on building a climate-resilient society by 2035 [22][27]. - The shift from reactive to proactive disaster management in agriculture includes advanced techniques such as smart seedling cultivation and water-saving irrigation methods to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather [28][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Palm Oil, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analysis for various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It analyzes the market trends, supply and demand, and policy factors of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Product Soybean - Policy - end auction sales show high premiums and high transaction rates, guiding prices. The spot market features high - quality products at high prices, with tight supply at the grass - roots level. Price increases suppress demand. Short - term focus on policy and spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather is improving, with a 75% probability of La Nina turning ENSO neutral in Q1. South American high - yield expectations are back. US soybean exports are strengthening, with 2.06 million tons of net sales in the week ending January 8, up 54% from the four - week average. China's major oil mills are expected to crush about 8 million tons of soybeans in January. Monitor US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US biofuel policy is more certain, with expected increased demand in the 26/27 market year. US soybean and soybean oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Palm oil in Malaysia faces short - term high - inventory pressure. Long - term supply constraints need careful observation. Overall, a range - bound view for soybean and palm oil [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - China - Canada trade arrangements may lead to a reduction in tariffs on Canadian rapeseed. Under 15% import tariffs, Canadian rapeseed has good profit margins. If the import policy improves, it may drive purchases. A short - term bearish view on rapeseed products [6]. Corn - Snow in the Northeast boosts bullish sentiment, with difficult grain transportation. Spot prices in the Northeast and North Port are strong. Mid - and downstream inventories are low. After New Year's Day, state and local reserve auctions increase, creating pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live pig futures changed. Weekend price increases due to snow and second - round fattening were reversed by short - selling. In 2025, pig slaughter and pork production increased year - on - year. The sow inventory decreased, and pig prices are expected to hit a low in H1 2026 [8]. Eggs - After New Year's Day, egg spot prices strengthened due to reduced supply and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The futures market followed the spot market. On Monday, the futures fell, possibly indicating the end of the pre - holiday rally. In the long - term, the in - production hen inventory is expected to decline, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [9].