| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国内大豆表现偏强,政策端竞价拍卖显示出溢价成交,且成交率高。国产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调。进 口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期,目前南美天气风险偏低,预计供应端的风险仍然偏低。国 内大豆进口成本下跌,盘面压榨毛利润表现较好。短期持续关注国产大 ...

每日经济新闻 煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（399998），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、 加工及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 该指数具有较强的行业代表性，配置上侧重于煤炭产业。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 资金面看，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）近10日净流入超1.4亿元，供给收紧煤价有望上行。 招商证券指出，当前北方港口库存处于高位，而目前冷冬需求兑现不及预期，下游电厂负荷尚未明 显提升，日耗同比降幅走扩，需求尚未出现实质性改善，同时社会库存整体偏高，电厂去库拐点滞后， 电厂以长协煤采购为主，市场煤仅有零星招标和刚需支撑，对价格支撑较弱，叠加新能源发电对火电挤 占，价格仍缺乏反弹动力。展望后市，供给收缩决 ...

南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——年底降雨回归，大部分地区土壤湿度暂时性好转 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月29日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，东南亚整体降雨 并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨有所增加，本周降雨集中在马来半岛南部和印尼的卡里曼丹岛附近，马来半 岛南部地区土壤湿度明显好转。印尼中卡里曼丹岛、廖内地区年底出现大雨，明显缓解土壤湿度；马来的柔 佛、彭亨也出现短期大雨，暂时缓解土壤情况，但降雨持续性不足，后续进入2026年土壤依然有偏干风险， 后续仍需要留意马来半岛和印尼卡里曼丹岛西部的干旱问题。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，持续关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年后半年棕榈油产 量。 厄尔尼诺指数 source： 同花顺,南华研究 厄 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（399998），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、加工 及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指 数具有较强的行业代表性，配置上侧重于煤炭产业。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，当前北方港口库存处于高位，而目前冷冬需求兑现不及预期，下游电厂负荷尚未明显提 升，日耗同比降幅走扩，需求尚未出现实质性改善，同时社会库存整体偏高，电厂去库拐点滞后，电厂 以长协煤采购为主，市场煤仅有零星招标和刚需支撑，对价格支撑较弱，叠加新能源发电对火电挤占， 价格仍缺乏反弹动力。展望后市，供给收缩决定了煤价下行有底，旺季需求决定了煤价后续上涨空间， 近日气候专家表示我国进入拉尼娜状态，东南沿海冷冬兑现概率加大，煤价有望止跌企稳，需求峰值高 度仍需持续观察跟踪。 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - **Moderate Positive**: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - **Weak Positive**: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Weak Negative**: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]

答：通常来说，发生拉尼娜事件的冬季，西北太平洋和南海上空盛行气旋式异常环流，其西侧偏北风有 利于引导北方冷空气南下，加强东亚冬季风，导致我国中东部地区气温以偏低为主。 "不过，受全球变暖等因素影响，本世纪以来，拉尼娜背景下我国冬季气温偏暖的情况也频繁发生，甚 至出现暖冬。"章大全说，预计今年冬季，全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，但气温冷暖起伏显 著，强降温和升温事件频繁；全国降水总体偏少，空间上呈"北多南少"分布。 问：对于拉尼娜状态，如何做好防范应对？ （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋已经进入拉尼娜状态。从历史数据来看，在多数拉 尼娜事件达到盛期的冬季，影响我国的冷空气活动比常年更加频繁，且强度偏强。什么是拉尼娜？对气 候有哪些影响？今年冬天是冷还是暖？一起来看本期快问快答→ 问：什么是拉尼娜？ 答：国家气候中心气候预测室首席预报员章大全表示，拉尼娜是发生在赤道中东太平洋的海气系统异常 现象，对全球气候异常都将产生显著影响。依据国家标准，气象专家采用NINO（尼诺）3.4指数来定义 赤道中东太平洋的海表面温度。当NINO3.4指数3个月的滑动平均值小于 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing pressure on students due to frequent exams and ranking systems, comparing it to the pressures faced by adults in the workplace [4][5] - It highlights recent tragic events, such as the shooting incidents in Brown University and Sydney, emphasizing the duality of human actions where both good and evil coexist [5][10] - The article touches on the rise of new food trends and the lifecycle of viral food items, indicating a cultural phenomenon in consumer behavior [12] Group 2 - The podcast "Knock Knock World" is introduced, aimed at engaging youth with global events and diverse thinking, with episodes released three times a week [15][16] - The podcast is available on various audio platforms, with a subscription model priced at 365 yuan per year, indicating a growing market for educational audio content [16][21]

尉氏县永兴镇王寨村，雪后暖阳下的麦田色彩斑斓，构成一幅美丽的乡村冬日画卷（12月13日摄）。 李新义 摄 近期，国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，赤道中东太平洋正式进入拉尼娜状态，截至目前该状态仍在持 续。这一以"海水持续异常偏冷"为核心特征的海洋气候现象，正通过改变全球大气环流对多地气候产生扰 动，让河南8500多万亩越冬小麦面临考验。应该如何有效应对？12月18日，记者专访省气象局及农业领域的 专家，为公众带来权威解答与田间管理指南。 当前，河南8500多万亩麦田已陆续进入越冬期。全省大部分麦田土壤墒情适宜，但拉尼娜导致天气冷暖波动 大、降水偏少，发生阶段性强降温、雨雪冰冻等极端天气的可能性增大，对小麦安全越冬和春季生长可能会 带来不利影响，要特别警惕干旱、冻害、病虫"三重风险"。农业农村部防灾减灾专家指导组顾问、河南农业 大学教授郭天财提醒，农户需"看天看地看苗情"分区分类精准施策，把暖冬优势用足、风险压至最低。 气象学有个明确的判定标准：当赤道中东太平洋关键区域（尼诺3.4区）海温较常年平均水平低0.5℃，且持续 3个月以上，即达到"拉尼娜状态"；连续维持5个月以上，才算一次完整的拉尼娜事件。 简单说 ...