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为什么没人愿意认购ETF了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 12:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by financial institutions in Taiwan and mainland China regarding the practice of "self-funding" to meet ETF sales targets, highlighting the negative returns associated with this practice in recent years [1][2][3]. Group 1: Self-Funding and Negative Returns - The phenomenon of "self-funding" exists across various industries, but negative expected returns in the fund industry are rare [3]. - For example, newly launched stock ETFs in 2020 had an average net value increase of approximately 1.5% from establishment to listing, allowing managers to lock in profits through market transactions [5]. - However, by 2021, self-funding behavior began to yield negative returns, with an average net value performance of -1% for self-funded ETF subscriptions [6]. - In some cases, such as a specific startup board ETF, losses could exceed 10% by the time of listing [8]. Group 2: Accelerated Construction Periods - The article notes that the construction period for ETFs has significantly decreased, from an average of 28 days in 2020 to just 11 days by 2025 [12]. - This rapid construction leaves fund managers with limited opportunities for market timing, leading to a mechanical approach to building positions [13][19]. - The average construction time for ETFs has remained under 15 days from 2021 to 2025, making it challenging for managers to find suitable entry points [18]. Group 3: Successful Timing by Fund Managers - Data shows that certain fund managers have successfully timed their ETF launches, resulting in significant profits for initial investors [20]. - For instance, the "Chip ETF Leader" managed by GF Fund earned nearly 386 million yuan for its initial subscribers [21]. - The timing of these successful launches often coincided with favorable market conditions, such as the semiconductor industry's growth during the trade war [23]. Group 4: Investor Experience and Fund Management - The article emphasizes that while ETF products are primarily tools for market participation, the experience of initial investors is crucial [28]. - It suggests that fund managers should consider the timing of product issuance and the length of the construction period to enhance investor returns [29].