春归 ——2026年3月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 分析师：王国兴 执业证书编号：S0930524070013 分析师：郭磊 执业证书编号：S0930524060002 2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2月份资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动，随后持续回升。我们认为，波动的核心原因一方面与春 节前市场交易热度下行有关，另一方面与短期政策引导市场情绪降温、部分中长期资金短期流出有关。但短期波动并不影响市场长期趋势，春节后 市场逐步回升，交易热度也同步提升。 核心观点二：春季行情或将延续。春节后，市场交易热度出现季节性回升，为后续市场表现奠定了基础。同时，未来一个月市场将进入数据与政策 的密集验证期。1-2月份的一系列经济金融数据将逐步披露，为市场形成全年经济的基准预期奠定核心依据。从目前已披露的部分数据及高频数据 来看，经济仍然处于稳步高质量修复的趋势之中。结合此前披露的年报预告情况，预计后续经济与企业盈利数据将对资本市场形成有力支撑。此外， 全国两会将于3月召开，会议将明确全年政策基调 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：李立峰 分析师：张海燕 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521040002 [Table_Title] 3 月 A 股：步入"两会"行情，以"稳"为主要特征 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：春节后，万得全 A 指数放量上涨并突破 1月 26 日高点，显示节后资金观望情绪缓解。融资资金 方面，本周融资余额回到 2.65 万亿元附近，节后三个交易日期间融资净买入规模达 776 亿元。结构上，受益 于涨价逻辑的资源品和算力硬件方向走强。一级行业中，钢铁、有色金属、化工指数涨幅超 7%。大宗商品方 面，2 月以来贵金属、原油价格整体上行，主要地缘风险、美联储政策预期分歧等因素推动。外汇方面，美 元指数在 97 附近震荡，离岸人民币兑美元汇率则延续升值趋势，近期已升破 6.9 关口。 ·市场展望：步入"两会"行情，A 股以"稳"为主要特征。海外地缘冲突升级，或引发短期全球资金的避 险与通胀交易，后续冲突持续时间将成为影响市场的关 ...

每经AI快讯，2月27日，截至收盘，ETF两市成交额报5252.29亿元。分类型来看，股票型ETF成交额 1417亿元，债券型ETF成交额2814.48亿元，货币型ETF成交额227.16亿元，商品型ETF成交额102.53亿 元，QDII型ETF成交额466.72亿元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market has seen a strong start in 2026, with 230 new funds launched and a total issuance scale exceeding 210 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period in the past four years [1][6] - The increase in new fund issuance is attributed to the positive performance of equity markets, which has boosted investor risk appetite and accelerated the shift of funds from savings to equity assets [1][9] - The market is experiencing structural changes, with a significant shift from bond-dominated new funds to equity-dominated ones, and a notable rise in the proportion of passive index products and ETFs [1][5] Group 2 - In the first two months of 2026, the number of new funds increased by 29.94% compared to the same period in 2025, and by 21.69% compared to 2023 [2] - The post-Spring Festival period saw a surge in new fund launches, with 18 new funds starting subscription on the first trading day and 36 new funds planned for issuance in the first week after the holiday [3] - Equity products (both stock and mixed funds) accounted for 71.37% of the new fund issuance, with passive investments gaining traction, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and battery technology [3][7] Group 3 - The top fund companies have shown significant advantages in the current issuance landscape, with GF Fund leading with 13 products and nearly 24 billion yuan in issuance [4][5] - The total issuance scale for new funds in 2026 has reached 210.2 billion yuan, nearly doubling compared to the same period in previous years [6] - The active equity funds launched in 2026 totaled 78, with a combined fundraising scale of approximately 75.23 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [7][8] Group 4 - The market is expected to continue favoring equity funds, with the issuance pace closely tied to market performance, suggesting a sustained "slow bull" market [9] - The industry is moving towards a high-quality development phase, with increased emphasis on performance and investor experience, while smaller firms are encouraged to adopt differentiated strategies [5][9]

南财金融终端数据显示，昨日(2月26日，下同)上证综指日内下跌0.01%，收于4146.63点，最高4152.19点；深证成指日内上涨0.19%，收于14503.79点，最高 14536.08点；创业板指日内下跌0.29%，收于3344.98点，最高3351.57点。 二、ETF市场表现 一、证券市场回顾 1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 昨日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.0%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中博时国证2000ETF收益率最高，为5.04%；行业指数ETF中嘉实国证通信ETF收益 率最高，为2.78%；策略指数ETF中前海开源中证500等权ETF收益率最高，为0.48%；风格指数ETF中万家上证科创板成长ETF收益率最高，为2.55%；主题 指数ETF中博时5G50ETF收益率最高，为3.41%。 | 类别 | 代码 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票型ETF | 512100.SH | | | 股票型ETF | 510300.SH | | | 股票型ETF | 159845.SZ | | | 股票型ETF | 512050.SH | | | 股票型ETF | 588000 ...

招商证券此前表示，节后融资余额有望回流，加上两会前风险偏好有望升温，节后A股资金面有望持续充裕。业绩真空期和政策回暖期给了A股接下来一段 时间进行产业趋势投资创造了良好的环境。 ETF方面，今年1月下半月，A股股票型ETF市场规模曾出现一波快速下降，从4万亿元以上回落至3.1万亿元附近。但自2月以来，股票型ETF市场规模变化重 归平稳。截至2月25日，股票型ETF资产规模报3.18万亿元，持续维持平稳态势。 股票型ETF市场近一年来规模变化 新华财经上海2月26日电（林郑宏）节后开市来的数据显示，A股市场呈现明显回暖态势。截至2月25日收盘，沪指本周累计上涨1.6%，深成指上涨2.66%， 创业板指上涨2.41%，三大股指均稳步走高。A股平均股价则上涨1.62%，报30.07元/股，再度站上30元/股整数关口。 在交投方面，节后首个交易日（2月24日，周二），沪深两市成交额即回到2万亿元上方，报2.2万亿元，周三进一步放大至2.46万亿元，均高于节前最后一周 的平均日成交额（约2.09万亿元）。 杠杆资金节后积极入场股票型ETF资产规模维持平稳 交投活跃背后，是杠杆资金的再度入场。数据显示，节后首个交易日，A ...

业内人士表示，这与去年以来A股市场的强劲表现和各方对市场的信心愈发充足有着密切关系。 值得注意的是，今年以来，行业头部效应显著。在发行产品的基金管理人中，中欧基金以5只产 品、76.70亿元规模居首，万家基金、中银基金则以48.93亿元、35.49亿元的成绩紧随其后。头部公司凭 借品牌与投研优势，单只产品平均规模达15.34亿元，显著高于行业均值的8.57亿元。中小机构则聚焦细 分领域，如东财基金（5.57亿元）、中航基金（2.40亿元）通过主题基金实现差异化突围。 展望节后市场，博时基金认为，春节期间海外股市表现稳中有进，春节前市场担忧的风险因素在假 期期间基本没有发生。同时，春节期间出行、餐饮消费表现旺盛。 宏利基金权益投资部执行总经理李坤元认为，海外方面，今年美联储降息预期较强，全球将进 入"降息+流动性宽松"局面，整体对权益类资产有利；同时，国内各项经济指标好转，企业盈利明显改 善，将对A股市场形成有利支撑。在她看来，随着2026年企业盈利企稳、PPI改善、外资回流，高质量 风格（高ROE标的、行业龙头）风格有望回归。李坤元表示，宏利基金新发产品将聚焦于"科技成 长"与"中国优势"两大核心主线。一是A ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月25日，截至收盘，ETF两市成交额报4493.67亿元。分类型来看，股票型ETF成交额 1605亿元，债券型ETF成交额1855.84亿元，货币型ETF成交额289.54亿元，商品型ETF成交额140.07亿 元，QDII型ETF成交额378.42亿元。 ...

截至目前，ETF两市成交额报2492.43亿元，分类型来看，股票型ETF成交额916.8亿元，债券型ETF成交 额1003.15亿元，货币型ETF成交额145.25亿元，商品型ETF成交额76.60亿元，QDII型ETF成交额218.42 亿元。其中，成交额最高的非货币型ETF分别是华夏中证a500ETF（ 512050）、a500基金（ 563360）、 国泰中证a500ETF（ 159338），成交额分别为68.51亿元、58.76亿元、51.69亿元。 ...

Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]