- The report includes multiple quantitative models for A-share market timing, such as the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart Algorithm Model," and "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" [1][11][64] - The "Volume Model" is neutral in the short term, while the "Feature Institutional Model" is also neutral. The "Feature Volume Model" indicates bearish signals. The "Smart Algorithm Model" for CSI 300 and CSI 500 shows bearish signals [11][64] - For mid-term A-share market timing, the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model," "Up-Down Return Difference Model," and "Calendar Effect Model" are neutral [12][65] - The long-term "Momentum Model" is neutral [13][66] - The "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" indicate bearish signals for A-shares [14][67] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover-to-Volatility Model" shows bearish signals, while the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" and "Up-Down Return Similarity Model" are neutral [15][68] - Backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly return of 3.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.26%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 23.82%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.13% [43][47] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly return of 1.07%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 17.9%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.21% [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall scale of the ETF market has slightly shrunk compared to the beginning of the year, with the number of listed funds increasing. The performance of different types of ETFs has shown significant differentiation, and the flow of funds has also changed marginally. The trading congestion of bond ETFs has decreased, while the trading of stock ETFs has shifted towards growth and technology. The issuance of ETFs has shown a trend of decline in the number of ongoing issuances and an increase in the number of waiting - to - be - issued products [3][58][72] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Scale: Total Expansion and Structural Stratification (Market/Product/Institution) 3.1.1 Market/Product Scale - As of March 20, 2026, the total scale of the entire market's ETFs reached 5.10 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.92 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The number of listed funds increased to 1,458, with 55 new funds added. Stock - type ETFs were the main force in scale, but their scale decreased by 0.89 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. Bond - type ETFs had the largest shrinkage in scale, while commodity - type ETFs increased by 8.2092 billion yuan. Cross - border ETFs added 10 new funds, indicating an increasing demand for diversified asset allocation [3][11][36] 3.1.2 Institution Scale - Last week, the ETF scale of leading institutions decreased by over 10 billion yuan, with the equity side generally under pressure. Only a few fixed - income and money - market directions received marginal support. The differentiation among institutions increased, with some institutions experiencing significant declines in both equity and ETF scales, while others showed relatively stable performance in the money - market segment [13][16] 3.2 Performance: Rise - Fall Differentiation and Valuation Position 3.2.1 Major Types of ETFs - Last week, the domestic equity market was generally weak, with broad - based indexes generally retreating. Small - and medium - cap indexes had larger declines, and their valuation quantiles were at high levels. Defensive sectors also failed to avoid the decline. Bond - type ETFs provided a hedge, and cross - border (QDII) ETFs were also weak. The valuation structure showed that core broad - based indexes were relatively stable, while growth and small - and medium - cap indexes had higher valuations and greater volatility [19][20][24] 3.2.2 CITIC First - Level Industry Index - The performance of industries last week showed obvious differentiation. Most industries had high valuation quantiles but different涨跌 trends. High - valuation sectors were concentrated in strong - performing industries, while low - valuation sectors were generally weak. High - valuation cyclical sectors were particularly under pressure [28] 3.2.3 Representative ETF Products - The current market shows obvious differentiation between high and low valuations, with defensive and risk - averse funds being active. In terms of scale, Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF ranked first. In terms of trading activity, bond - type ETFs were prominent, reflecting risk - averse sentiment. Some ETFs such as military - leading ETFs and dividend ETFs had high valuation quantiles, while others like Hang Seng Tech ETF and pharmaceutical ETFs had low valuations, which were attractive for long - term investors [30] 3.3 Funds: Sector Liquidity and Net Inflow Structure 3.3.1 Overall Market Overview: Scale and Net Redemption/Subscription - As of March 20, 2026, the market continued to expand, but different types of ETFs had different scale changes. Stock - type ETFs were still the main force, bond - type ETFs had the largest shrinkage, and commodity - type ETFs increased due to risk - averse demand [36] 3.3.2 Inside the Equity Market: Broad - Based vs. Industry/Theme vs. Strategy - As of March 20, 2026, the funds of major broad - based ETFs showed marginal improvement in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure of net outflows still existed. Long - term funds continued to migrate towards themes and cyclical sectors, while short - term funds showed a style - switching trend [48] 3.3.3 Leveraged Funds - Last week, there was an obvious differentiation between redemption/subscription and margin trading. Some broad - based ETFs had strong inflows of funds through both margin trading and subscription, while some products were mainly dominated by leveraged funds, and most products had weak short - term fund popularity [51] 3.4 ETF Trading Congestion 3.4.1 Trading Intensity - As of March 22, 2026, the total trading volume of the ETF market decreased compared to the previous week. Funds shifted from bonds to equities and cross - border assets. The trading activity of bond - type ETFs declined, and the turnover structure of stock - type ETFs shifted from defensive to growth and technology sectors [58][61][64] 3.5 Issuance Dynamics - Last week, the ETF issuance market continued to decline, with the number of ongoing issuances decreasing and the number of waiting - to - be - issued products increasing. The number of newly established funds increased significantly, and the supply side improved. However, the number of ETFs scheduled to be listed in the next two weeks is limited [72][74]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of A-shares is under scrutiny as the market faces both internal and external challenges, raising concerns about whether the Shanghai Composite Index will hold above the 4000-point mark [2][12]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The current bull market in A-shares, which began in September 2024, is experiencing difficulties, with significant net redemptions in equity ETFs, particularly those held by institutions [2][8]. - The total share of equity ETFs in China has been declining since reaching a peak of 22,236.69 billion shares at the end of 2025, dropping to 20,977.90 billion shares by the end of February 2026 [2][9]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has struggled to maintain its position above 4000 points, recently closing at 4049.91 points after a 0.85% drop, indicating a potential test of the critical 4000-point level [2][12]. Group 2: Global Market Context - Global stock indices have faced a downturn, with significant declines observed in major markets such as South Korea (down 11.12%), Japan (down 8.67%), and France (down 7.51%) since the onset of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5][6]. - Despite the global downturn, the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of only 2.71% during the same period suggests a degree of independence in its performance, attributed to its relatively lower valuation compared to other global markets [5][6]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Recent reports indicate that institutional investors have begun to exit the market, with net redemptions in equity ETFs amounting to 10.62 billion yuan, reflecting a trend of profit-taking after substantial gains during the bull market [8][10]. - Regulatory changes, including increased margin requirements, have contributed to a more cautious approach among investors, leading to a reduction in leverage and a focus on stabilizing market conditions [10][11]. - The decline in equity ETF shares is seen as a strategic move by institutions to realize profits while adhering to regulatory guidance, rather than a sign of pessimism regarding the long-term outlook for A-shares [10][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has only successfully maintained a position above 4000 points on two occasions, both of which were followed by prolonged bear markets [12][13]. - However, experts believe that the current market conditions are more favorable for sustaining the index above 4000 points, citing the increasing importance of the capital market and the attractiveness of Chinese valuations amid global uncertainties [12][13]. - The recent profit-taking by institutions is viewed as a normal operational strategy rather than a negative sentiment towards the market's future, with many institutions remaining optimistic about A-shares [12][14].

Core Insights - The Chinese ETF market experienced explosive growth in 2025, surpassing 5 trillion yuan in assets under management, making it the largest ETF market in Asia, overtaking Japan [1][4] - The total net inflow of funds into the ETF market was approximately 1.38 trillion yuan, slightly down from the peak of 1.43 trillion yuan in 2024 [1][6] - By the end of 2025, the total assets under management for ETFs reached about 5.85 trillion yuan, with 1,375 products available, including 1,305 equity ETFs, 53 bond ETFs, and 17 commodity ETFs [1][4] ETF Market Development Overview - The asset management scale of equity ETFs reached approximately 4.77 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 44% year-on-year increase [4] - Bond ETFs saw a significant surge, with assets growing from 180 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 829.2 billion yuan by the end of 2025, increasing their market share from 5% to 14% [5] - Commodity ETFs, primarily driven by soaring gold prices, saw their assets rise from 761 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 2.51 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [5] Fund Flow Analysis - In 2025, bond ETFs became the largest asset category for net inflows, achieving a net inflow of 642.1 billion yuan, surpassing equity ETFs which had a net inflow of 619.5 billion yuan [6] - The total net inflow for the ETF market exceeded 1 trillion yuan, supported by policy initiatives and favorable market conditions [6] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs was attributed to the issuance of 32 new credit bond ETFs, which significantly boosted their market presence [6][12] New Product Overview - A record 363 new ETFs were launched in 2025, with 331 being equity ETFs and 32 bond ETFs, marking the highest number of new launches in history [10] - The number of ETFs that were liquidated was notably low, with only 7 funds being closed, all of which were equity ETFs [10] - The majority of new bond ETFs were credit bond ETFs, which attracted substantial capital inflows, accounting for over 70% of the total funds raised from new products [12] Competitive Landscape - The top 20 ETF products in 2025 included new entrants from the Hong Kong stock and credit bond categories, reflecting a more balanced inflow of funds across different product types [25] - Major ETF providers like Huaxia Fund, E Fund, and Huatai-PB maintained their positions at the top, but the market saw a shift towards more diversified fund flows [27] - The market concentration among the top three ETF providers decreased from 48.4% to 42.1%, indicating a trend towards increased competition and diversification in the ETF market [27][28]

Market Performance Overview - In the week from March 2 to March 6, 2026, oil prices surged while domestic equity market indices experienced a pullback [4] - The oil and petrochemical, coal, and public utilities sectors saw the highest gains, while media, non-ferrous metals, and computer sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 12 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 13.464 billion units [5] - The new funds included 3 bond funds, 6 equity funds, 2 mixed funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF) [5] - Overall, 45 new funds were issued across various types, including 19 equity funds, 9 FOFs, 8 bond funds, 8 mixed funds, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The net value of industry-themed funds declined across the board this week, with financial and real estate-themed funds performing relatively better [6] - As of March 6, 2026, the net value changes for various themed funds were as follows: financial and real estate -1.10%, cyclical -1.66%, industry rotation -2.30%, pharmaceuticals -2.43%, consumer -2.59%, balanced industry -2.62%, new energy -2.72%, national defense and military -3.54%, and TMT -4.53% [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, stock ETFs saw a net inflow of funds, with significant increases in cyclical theme ETFs, while mid-cap and large-cap broad-based ETFs experienced notable reductions [7] - The median return for stock ETFs was -2.37%, with a net inflow of 1.424 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -3.89% and a net inflow of 3.039 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.30% and a net inflow of 1.031 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs had a median return of -0.33% and a substantial net inflow of 13.181 billion yuan [7][8] - Broad-based ETFs maintained net inflows, while other categories experienced net outflows, particularly mid-cap theme ETFs, which saw a total outflow of 17.252 billion yuan [7] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 13 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.777 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.29 trillion yuan and a total of 4,569 bonds issued as of March 6, 2026 [9] - The domestic market currently has 210 ESG funds with a total scale of 154.846 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive equity index, and bond ESG funds were -2.46%, -0.69%, and +0.10%, respectively, with clean energy, low-carbon environmental protection, and green electricity-themed funds performing better [9]

- The report introduces a quantitative timing model based on volume signals, referred to as the "Volume Timing Signal" model. The model evaluates market sentiment by analyzing the volume of major indices. As of March 6, 2026, the volume timing signals for all indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Beijing 50, indicate a cautious outlook[23][24] - The "HS300 Rising Stock Proportion Sentiment Indicator" is introduced to assess market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specific period (N days). The formula is: $ \text{HS300 N-day Rising Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ This indicator is effective in capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in predicting market downturns. As of March 6, 2026, the indicator showed a slight increase, with the proportion of rising stocks exceeding 60%, indicating high market sentiment[24][25] - The "HS300 Rising Stock Proportion Timing Tracking" applies two different smoothing windows (N1=50 and N2=35) to the above sentiment indicator. When the short-term smoothed line (fast line) exceeds the long-term smoothed line (slow line), it signals a bullish market sentiment. As of March 6, 2026, both the fast and slow lines were rising, with the fast line above the slow line, suggesting a continued bullish outlook[26][28] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" is based on the eight-moving-average system, which uses the closing prices of the CSI 300 index and calculates moving averages with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the current price relative to the moving averages. When the current price exceeds more than five of the moving averages, it signals a bullish sentiment. As of March 6, 2026, the CSI 300 index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone[32][36] - The report also analyzes cross-sectional volatility and time-series volatility as indicators of short-term alpha opportunities. Cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index components increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 was in the upper-middle percentile of the past six months, while CSI 500 was in the middle percentile. Time-series volatility for the same indices also increased week-over-week, with CSI 1000 in the upper-middle percentile of the past six months, indicating a favorable alpha environment[37][38][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various sectors in the investment market, with a focus on the cyclical theme funds leading in performance and the increasing inflow of funds into Hong Kong ETFs [5] - The domestic equity market indices generally rose, with the CSI 500 index increasing by 4.32%. However, the issuance of new funds in the primary market was lackluster, with only five new funds established [5] - The report indicates that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in January-February decreased by 30% year-on-year, with the top 10 companies experiencing a 25% decline [6] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to create investment opportunities in sectors such as military, shipping, oil and gas, coal chemical, gold, and strategic metals [5] - The copper industry report notes a 46% increase in the open interest of SHFE copper contracts compared to the last trading day before the Spring Festival, indicating strong market interest [7] - The national power generation in 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with domestic and imported coal prices rebounding strongly [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates a transition from a volatile fourth quarter to a spring market rally, with February showing initial fluctuations followed by a recovery, attributed to pre-holiday trading slowdown and short-term policy impacts [3][5][11] - The spring market is expected to continue, with increased trading activity post-Chinese New Year, supported by upcoming economic data releases and the National People's Congress in March, which will set the policy tone for the year [3][46][50] - The report suggests focusing on growth and cyclical sectors, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform due to increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investors, highlighting sectors such as humanoid robots, computing, and AI as key areas of interest [3][88][90] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external uncertainties, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could impact market sentiment and performance [3][76][78] - It notes that historical patterns show small-cap stocks tend to perform better during spring rallies, with a significant focus on growth and cyclical sectors based on past performance trends [3][88][90] - The report outlines specific policy measures in Shanghai aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics [67]

Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the Wind All A Index saw a significant increase, breaking through the high point of January 26, indicating a reduction in post-holiday cautious sentiment. The financing balance returned to approximately 2.65 trillion yuan, with a net financing inflow of 77.6 billion yuan over the first three trading days after the holiday. Resource products and computing hardware sectors benefited from price increase logic, with steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical indices rising over 7%. Since February, precious metals and crude oil prices have generally risen due to geopolitical risks and differing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. The US dollar index fluctuated around 97, while the offshore RMB continued its appreciation trend, recently surpassing the 6.9 mark [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - As the "Two Sessions" approach, the A-share market is characterized by stability. The escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts may trigger short-term global risk aversion and inflation trading, with the duration of these conflicts being a key variable affecting the market. Domestically, the upcoming "Two Sessions" will focus on expanding domestic demand and new productive forces, which may become annual priorities. Historical data shows that the market tends to operate steadily during the "Two Sessions," with an increased probability of market gains following the conclusion of the sessions. Key areas of focus include the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may drive short-term global risk aversion and inflation expectations, benefiting sectors like crude oil and non-ferrous metals [2][3]. Focus on "14th Five-Year Plan" Direction - The A-share market will enter the "Two Sessions" period, emphasizing the direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Historical analysis from 2019 to 2025 indicates that the market's performance tends to decline during the "Two Sessions," likely due to some funds cashing out during the meetings. However, the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A Index tends to improve in the seven trading days following the sessions. Sectors highlighted during the sessions often continue to perform well throughout the year, such as the power sector after the mention of "carbon neutrality" in 2021 and the AI sector after the introduction of "AI+" in 2024. This year marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the review of its draft will likely anchor mid-to-long-term industry directions [3][4]. Economic Focus for 2026 - The key tasks for economic work in 2026 include expanding domestic demand and fostering new productive forces. The economic growth target for 31 provinces is set around 5%, reflecting a pragmatic approach of "seeking progress while maintaining stability." The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a supportive and expansionary stance for 2026. The focus on expanding domestic demand and new productive forces is underscored by President Xi Jinping's article outlining eight key tasks, with the first two emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and innovation-driven growth [4][5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - From a valuation perspective, the latest Wind All A price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, excluding negative values, stands at 18.58 times, which is at the 80th percentile of historical highs since 2010. However, approximately 40% of industries still have valuations below the median since 2010. The latest equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 is 5.26%, close to the median over the past decade, indicating that A-shares are relatively reasonably valued. In the medium to long term, the current "slow bull" market still has room for further development. Industry allocation should focus on sectors benefiting from inflation expectations, such as oil transportation, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, as well as new productive forces supported by industrial policies, including military, computing, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [5].

Core Viewpoint - The total trading volume of ETFs in the market reached 525.29 billion yuan as of the market close on February 27 [1] Summary by Category Stock ETFs - The trading volume for stock ETFs amounted to 141.7 billion yuan [1] Bond ETFs - The trading volume for bond ETFs was 281.448 billion yuan [1] Money Market ETFs - The trading volume for money market ETFs reached 22.716 billion yuan [1] Commodity ETFs - The trading volume for commodity ETFs was 10.253 billion yuan [1] QDII ETFs - The trading volume for QDII ETFs totaled 46.672 billion yuan [1]