| | | ETF规模(亿 | 25 .. . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 7G) | | | 1 | や夏其金 | 9,887.91 | 16.07 | | 2 | 易方达基金 | 9,158.07 | 14.88 | | 3 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | 6.428.26 | 10.45 | | 4 | 南方基金 | 4,372.01 | 7.10 | | 5 | 喜实基金 | 3,739.76 | 6.08 | | 6 | 广发基金 | 3,026.74 | 4.92 | | 7 | 国泰其金 | 2,938.62 | 4.78 | | 8 | 富国基金 | 2.540.76 | 4.13 | | ರಿ | 博时基金 | 2,215.34 | 3.60 | | 10 | や宝暮等 | 2,092.01 | 3.40 | | 11 | 华安基金 | 1,995.40 | 3.24 | | 12 | 領作基金 | 1,621.93 | 2.64 | | 13 | 汇添富基金 | 1,503.73 | 2.44 | | 14 | 鹏华其金 | 1,278.18 | 2.08 | ...

A股三大股指开盘，沪指平开，创业板指涨0.36%。盘面上，存储芯片、脑机接口、有色金属板块涨幅 居前，石油、机器人、军工板块跌幅靠前。 机构看后市 华西证券：春季躁动提前启动，牛市格局依旧未改 东方证券：沪指逼近4100点整数关口，预计后市上行速度将放缓 东方证券认为，从技术层面来看，经过二日大幅反弹后，沪综指逼近4100点整数关口，预计后市上行速 度将有所放缓，不排除大幅震荡可能；未来产业仍是关注焦点，但需要提防部分个股大幅炒作后的调整 风险，板块内部的高低切换值得把握。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 华西证券认为，春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍 扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，多部门正密集 出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是 资金层面，去年12月以股票型ETF为代表的机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱 动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅 收窄，预计20 ...

Market Overview - In December, the equity-like market transitioned from stability to volatility, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.30% for the month and 27.65% for the year[12] - The market experienced a significant rebound starting December 17, following a brief dip on December 16, indicating strong market resilience[12] Structural Risks and Fund Sentiment - Structural risks have notably eased, with the concentration of trading volume below historical high levels, dropping to 41% on December 16[25] - Positive fund sentiment was reflected in a net inflow of 806 billion CNY into stock ETFs in December, second only to April's 1,825 billion CNY[35] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have shown a significant upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 100 CNY rising by 2.40 percentage points to 35.77%[18] - The median price for convertible bonds is expected to remain in the 130-135 CNY range if the equity market maintains a strong oscillating pattern[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a bullish mindset, as the market is currently in a low implied volatility state, similar to conditions seen in July[75] - Historical trends indicate that year-end rallies often face resistance at previous highs, but successful breakouts can lead to substantial gains, as seen in 2014 and 2020[76] Risks and Considerations - The primary risk for convertible bonds lies in the potential weakness of the equity market, which could exert dual pressure on valuations and underlying stocks[63] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring equity market trends and expectations, as a sustained downturn could negatively impact convertible bond inflows[62]

机构观点方面，华西证券指出，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已 提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和 投资规划，同时财政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资金层面，12月以股 票型ETF为代表的机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金 入市有望强化春季行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈 利进入温和复苏通道，对盈利拐点的博弈将成为行情的重要支撑。 长江证券资深投资顾问刘浪表示，昨天脑机接口概念股全线爆发。据媒体报道，复旦大学附属华山医院 脑机接口植入技术再获突破。国内首款、国际第二款内置电池的全植入、全无线、全功能"三全"脑机接 口产品，成功完成首例临床试验。28岁高位截瘫8年的患者通过植入脑机接口系统，第一次用意念控制 轮椅、浏览网页……这项技术突破标志着中国在脑机接口领域已跻身全球顶尖序列。另外，近期埃隆· 马斯克表态，旗下Neuralink将在2026年启动脑机接口设备大规模生产。开源证券认为，脑机接口行业正 处 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14% to 4069.38 points, reaching a new high in over 10 years [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.81% to 13940.24 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.04% to 3293.18 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 178.13 billion yuan, with over 3600 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included brain-computer interfaces, chemical engineering, non-ferrous metals, insurance, securities, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 4.05%, while non-bank financials and oil & petrochemicals rose by 3.27% and 2.95%, respectively [3] - The brain-computer interface sector experienced a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a strengthening spring market, recommending investments in growth sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy, as well as domestic demand improvement themes [4] - CITIC Securities suggests that the cross-year market will exhibit characteristics of "growth leading and liquor accumulating," with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy [5] - Guoxin Securities predicts that 2026 will be a significant year for the market, supported by favorable macro policies and improving corporate earnings [6] Emerging Opportunities - Guoxin Securities highlights the potential for 2026 to be the year of reusable commercial rockets, driven by the need for cost-effective launch solutions [7] - Tianfeng Securities expresses optimism about the growth potential in high-end consumer sectors such as cosmetics, gold jewelry, and duty-free shopping [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期 ❖ 宏观 张瑜：宽松过峰，股债继续重估 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.01%, while the ChiNext Index opened down 0.45% [1] - The human brain engineering and lithium mining sectors showed significant gains, while commercial aerospace and CPO sectors experienced declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4026.02, up 0.06%, with 1018 gainers and 808 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13830.30, up 0.01%, with 1318 gainers and 1066 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3279.81, down 0.45%, with 650 gainers and 552 losers [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high, driven by strong financial stocks [3] - The Dow Jones increased by 594.79 points (1.23%) to 48977.18, the Nasdaq rose by 160.19 points (0.69%) to 23395.82, and the S&P 500 gained 43.58 points (0.64%) to 6902.05 [3] - Most Chinese concept stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.49% [3] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a strengthening spring market, recommending investments in growth sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy, as well as sectors related to domestic demand improvement [4] - CITIC Securities highlights a "growth first, liquor accumulation" trend in the cross-year market, with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy that show clear growth potential [5] - Huaxi Securities predicts 2026 will be a significant year for the market, supported by favorable macro policies and improving corporate earnings [6] - Guojin Securities expects 2026 to be the year of recoverable commercial rockets, emphasizing the importance of cost reduction through recoverable technology [7][8] - Tianfeng Securities sees growth potential in cosmetics, gold jewelry, and duty-free sectors amid the recovery of high-end consumption [9]

华西证券指出，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是 宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财 政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资金层面，12月以股票型ETF为代表的 机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季 行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈利进入温和复苏通 道，对盈利拐点的博弈将成为行情的重要支撑。 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：人心思涨，预计开年市场震荡向上 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。在一个回头来看巨大 的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来自于 对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以及AI 推理需求爆发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。增量流动性只是预期差和业绩 兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对市场的影响。 增量资金入市不会是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平 衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并 不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 国泰海通：一年之计在于春 在市场持续反弹之际，中国股市有望跨越与站稳重要关口。海外流动性的宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望推 动人民币的稳定与升值。以A500E ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 春季躁动提前启动，牛市格局依旧未改 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）韩国综合指数、港股恒生科技指数、中国台湾加权指数领涨全球，美股 三大股指领跌。A 股方面，周期、成长板块表现较好，一级行业中石油石化、军工、传媒领涨；公用事业跌幅居 前。元旦后首个交易日（1 月 2 日），港股迎来"开门红"，恒生科技指数单日大涨 4%，其中半导体、AI 算力、互 联网巨头方向大涨，显示市场风险偏好回暖。大宗商品方面，本周基本金属、原油上涨，贵金属下跌，其中 COMEX 白银、COMEX 黄金分别下跌 6.39%、4.63%。外汇方面，离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续走强，周五升破 6.97。 ·市场展望：春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026 年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春 季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026 年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投 资规划，同时财政 ...