作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 前三季度A股震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳，ETF作为资金布局A股的核心通道掀起"吸金 潮"。 Wind数据显示，截至9月末，全市场ETF规模突破5.63万亿元，年内增幅超五成；其中，百亿级"巨 无霸"ETF阵营快速扩容至119只，较年初激增八成，其中近半数为股票型产品。 2025.10. 09 本文字数：2927，阅读时长大约5分钟 权益配置热情高涨推升股票型ETF结束4个月的净流出，9月单月净流入471.55亿元；同时，资金也 在悄然调仓，宽基与行业主题ETF分化显著，前者整体仍承压，后者却以941亿元月度吸金额成为资 金主阵地。 繁荣背后，行业"马太效应"越发鲜明：前十大ETF巨头控盘76%份额，头部机构凭规模效应与资源优 势主导竞争，中小公司却因千亿盈利门槛、高投入壁垒望而踌躇：有人嫌"卷到没利润"退出，有人咬 牙押注细分赛道，还有权益大厂此时选择主动杀入。 当ETF从"工具"变"战场"，这条被视为黄金赛道的地方，已然成为资源、战略与耐力的竞技场。神仙 打架，小厂求生，谁会是下一个实力玩家？ 百亿级ETF数扩至119只 前三季度，A股主要指数震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五 ...

前三季度A股震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳，ETF作为资金布局A股的核心通道掀起"吸金 潮"。 Wind数据显示，截至9月末，全市场ETF规模突破5.63万亿元，年内增幅超五成；其中，百亿级"巨无 霸"ETF阵营快速扩容至119只，较年初激增八成，其中近半数为股票型产品。 权益配置热情高涨推升股票型ETF结束4个月的净流出，9月单月净流入471.55亿元；同时，资金也在悄 然调仓，宽基与行业主题ETF分化显著，前者整体仍承压，后者却以941亿元月度吸金额成为资金主阵 地。 繁荣背后，行业"马太效应"越发鲜明：前十大ETF巨头控盘76%份额，头部机构凭规模效应与资源优势 主导竞争，中小公司却因千亿盈利门槛、高投入壁垒望而踌躇：有人嫌"卷到没利润"退出，有人咬牙押 注细分赛道，还有权益大厂此时选择主动杀入。 当ETF从"工具"变"战场"，这条被视为黄金赛道的地方，已然成为资源、战略与耐力的竞技场。神仙打 架，小厂求生，谁会是下一个实力玩家？ 百亿级ETF数扩至119只 前三季度，A股主要指数震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳。数据显示，截至9月底，上证指数达 到3882.78点，年内上涨15.84%；深证成指 ...

ETF从"工具"变"战场"：5.6万亿狂潮下，谁能杀出重围？ 前三季度，A股主要指数震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳。数据显示，截至9月底，上证指数达 到3882.78点，年内上涨15.84%；深证成指与创业板指表现更为强劲，二者年内涨幅分别为29.88%、 51.2%。 前三季度A股震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳，ETF作为资金布局A股的核心通道掀起"吸金 潮"。 伴随指数走高，市场交易活跃度同步显著升温，8月中旬以来，A股单日成交额2万亿元以上已为常态。 Wind数据显示，截至9月30日，A股两市成交额连续35个交易日突破2万亿元，8月27日更放量至3.2万亿 元，创年内单日成交新高。 作为资金布局A股的重要通道之一，ETF市场更是陷入"买买买"的节奏。据第一财经统计，前三季度 ETF市场规模逐季跃升，单季扩容规模分别达684.37亿元、5060.48亿元、1.32万亿元。截至9月底，全 市场ETF规模已经达到5.63万亿元，年内增幅超过50%。 资金对权益市场的配置意愿提升，也推动百亿元规模级的ETF数量持续扩容。截至9月底，这类"巨无 霸"ETF数量已达119只，数量较二季度末的84只增加了35 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of public funds in China reached a historic high of 36.25 trillion yuan as of the end of August, marking the first time it has surpassed 36 trillion yuan [2][4] - The significant increase in public fund scale, nearly 1.2 trillion yuan in August alone, reflects a notable recovery in investor confidence, particularly in stock funds [1][2] - Stock funds saw a monthly growth of over 600 billion yuan, primarily driven by stock ETFs, while mixed funds faced redemption pressures [1][3] Fund Scale and Composition - As of the end of August, the net asset value of public funds totaled 36.25 trillion yuan, with closed-end funds at 3.72 trillion yuan and open-end funds at 32.53 trillion yuan [2] - Open-end stock fund scale reached 5.55 trillion yuan, up from 4.92 trillion yuan at the end of July, indicating a growth of over 600 billion yuan [2] - Mixed funds increased to 4.16 trillion yuan from 3.83 trillion yuan, showing a growth of over 300 billion yuan [2] ETF Performance - Stock ETFs contributed significantly to the growth, with their scale increasing by 394.2 billion yuan and their shares rising by 24.071 billion [3] - Despite the overall growth in mixed funds, their share decreased, indicating some investors opted for "sell at breakeven" strategies [3] Bond Fund Trends - Bond funds experienced a decline in both scale and share, with negative returns reported for several bond funds in August [4] - However, certain bond ETFs, particularly convertible bond ETFs and 30-year treasury bond ETFs, saw growth, with the former contributing over 21 billion yuan to the scale increase [4] Market Outlook - The public fund scale is expected to continue rising, supported by ongoing inflows of incremental capital and a positive market cycle characterized by increasing returns and stable market conditions [1][6] - The A-share market is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic improvements and the ongoing development of technology sectors, particularly artificial intelligence [6]

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China reached a historical high of 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, marking the fifth record high this year and the first time surpassing 36 trillion yuan [1][2] - The significant increase in public fund scale was driven by a notable recovery in investor confidence, with stock funds growing by over 600 billion yuan in August alone, primarily led by stock ETFs [1][2] - Despite the overall growth, mixed funds faced redemption pressure, indicating some investors opted for a "sell upon breakeven" strategy [1][2] Group 2 - In the open-end fund category, stock fund scale reached 5.55 trillion yuan, up from 4.92 trillion yuan at the end of July, while mixed funds grew to 4.16 trillion yuan from 3.83 trillion yuan [2] - Stock funds experienced both scale and share growth, indicating that investors continued to increase their positions amid rising market values, with stock ETFs contributing significantly to this growth [2][3] - Conversely, bond funds saw a slight decline in scale to 7.21 trillion yuan from 7.24 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing volatility in the bond market [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market has shown fluctuations, with several bond funds reporting negative returns in August, leading to a decrease in both scale and share for most bond funds [3] - However, certain types of bond ETFs, such as convertible bond ETFs and 30-year treasury bond ETFs, experienced growth, contributing over 480 billion yuan in scale increase [3] - As of the end of August, there were 164 public fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [3] Group 4 - The A-share market has been on an upward trend, supported by favorable policies, the rise of technology growth sectors, and improved liquidity, leading to a new upward cycle [4] - The current valuation levels in the A-share market remain reasonable, with a recovery in corporate earnings still in its early stages [4] - Future investment opportunities may arise from the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to bolster performance in related industries [4]

Group 1: Market Insights - The combination of "low deposit rates + high investment returns" is insufficient to attract residents' deposits into the market from both relative and absolute return perspectives[2] - China's excess savings are approximately zero, contrasting with the large excess deposits seen in other markets[3] - The increase in savings rate and decrease in deposit proportion reflect a change in risk preference among residents[4] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The current A-share market rally is more akin to an "emotional bull market" driven by increased risk appetite rather than a substantial influx of resident deposits[4] - For A-shares to reach new highs, a recovery in earnings is necessary to solidify optimistic sentiment and transition into a "slow bull" market[4] - The expectation of a significant influx of resident deposits into the market lacks triggering conditions in the short term[4] Group 3: Financial Data Analysis - In July, resident deposits decreased by approximately 1.1 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year reduction of about 780 billion yuan, raising market concerns[21] - The decrease in resident deposits was primarily due to a 92% contribution from a decline in demand deposits, while time deposits only decreased by 85 billion yuan[21] - In August, resident deposits increased by about 110 billion yuan, indicating a lack of large-scale market entry from deposits[22]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at Bosera Fund marks the end of the Jiang Xiangyang era, with Zhang Dong set to take over as chairman, raising questions about how he will address the company's structural challenges in equity and fixed income investments [4][5][10]. Leadership Change - Jiang Xiangyang, who led Bosera Fund for over a decade, is stepping down as chairman to join China Merchants Jinling Leasing Co., while Zhang Dong, the current general manager, is expected to be appointed as the new chairman pending board approval [4][5]. - Jiang's tenure saw significant reforms that restored the fund's management scale to the top ten in the industry, primarily through a focus on fixed income products, but the equity segment faced ongoing challenges [5][6]. Performance and Challenges - Under Jiang's leadership, Bosera Fund's asset management scale doubled from 2015 to 2017, and by the end of 2019, the total assets exceeded 620 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry [6]. - Despite growth in fixed income, the active equity business has struggled, with the fund's ranking in this area dropping to 19th by 2020, prompting efforts to revitalize it through key personnel changes [7][8]. Zhang Dong's Background - Zhang Dong, with over 30 years of experience in the banking sector, is expected to leverage his background to enhance Bosera's collaboration with banks and improve the fund's distribution channels [10][11]. - His appointment is seen as a strategic move to deepen the integration of resources within the group, particularly in areas like "fixed income+" and retirement-targeted funds [11]. Market Conditions - The public fund market has shown a stark contrast in performance, with equity assets recovering significantly while the bond market faces pressure due to interest rate fluctuations [13][18]. - Bosera's equity products have recently performed well, with over 95% of its equity funds recording positive returns in the last three months, largely due to strategic investments in technology sectors [13][14]. Fixed Income Performance - Conversely, Bosera's fixed income products have encountered challenges, with 65% of its bond funds reporting negative returns recently, primarily due to rising government bond yields [18]. - The company has also faced talent attrition, with five fund managers leaving in 2025, raising concerns about the stability of its investment research team [18].

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 6.47%, driven by increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, with indices in social services, retail, light industry, and textiles showing the largest declines. Market turnover decreased marginally, with net inflows of financing funds maintained, and stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 231 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The dollar index rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a "slow bull" market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, funding divergence has increased since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external funds entering the market may slow down, leading to potential short-term adjustments in both markets. However, the current bull market is still in play, supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and long-term capital inflows. Despite weak economic data, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares. Key areas of focus include: - The technology sector remains the main focus, with both "prosperity investment" and "thematic investment" expected to coexist in October. Internal rotation within growth sectors is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in AI downstream applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Attention should also be given to non-tech sectors showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [2][3]. International Perspective - On the international front, the Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts have been implemented, but there is increasing divergence regarding future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with projections indicating a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with 9 out of 19 officials expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further reductions. Current U.S. economic data remains resilient, and Fed Chair Powell's cautious signals regarding rate cuts suggest a potentially complicated path ahead [3]. Supply-Side Policies - The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August. Year-on-year growth in industrial profits for August was 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July to a cumulative growth of 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -2.9% year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March. This improvement is attributed to a low base effect and the gradual impact of supply-side policies, which have led to price increases in upstream commodities. The central bank has emphasized the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, with recent policies aimed at boosting prices being implemented [3]. Structural Trends - In terms of structure, the technology sector is experiencing numerous catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. The new wave of technological advancements driven by AI is accelerating across various fields. Key factors include the increasing clarity of domestic and international AI industry trends, rapid growth in the performance of leading companies, and a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities in upcoming policy meetings. Market consensus on profit expectations indicates high growth for growth sectors in 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity situation in the A-share market remains ample. In August, non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, and the M1-M2 negative differential continues to narrow, reflecting a positive impact on residents' risk appetite. Unlike the previous "structural bull" market from 2019 to 2021, where residents favored active funds, this bull market sees a preference for passive investment products. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net asset value of stock ETFs has rapidly expanded, with index funds consistently outpacing active equity funds for three consecutive quarters, further promoting the trend towards indexation in the industry. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with funding rates trending downward and bank wealth management products yielding historically low returns, suggesting that micro liquidity in the A-share market is likely to remain ample in the fourth quarter [3].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **A-share market** and the **funding landscape** within it, particularly the role of various types of funds including ETFs, public funds, private equity, and insurance funds [4][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments Importance of Funding Research - Funding is a direct factor influencing the stock market, with incremental funds having a strong correlation with market trends and styles [4][14]. - The significance of funding research has increased due to the rising influence of institutional funds compared to individual investors, which are more predictable and influenced by macroeconomic factors [4][4]. Types of Funds Analyzed - The research framework includes **10 key types of funds**: active public funds, ETFs, private equity, insurance funds, and northbound funds, among others [4][12][13]. - The analysis covers various dimensions such as scale, investment preferences, and impacts of these funds on the market [4][4]. Historical Trends and Market Dynamics - From 2017 to 2024, the correlation between market funding inflow and stock market performance has been strong, indicating that funding inflow is a significant predictor of market movements [14][16]. - The shift in dominant funding sources has been observed, with foreign capital becoming a major player in the A-share market, particularly from 2017 to 2019 [25][26]. Public Fund Growth - Public funds have seen explosive growth since 2020, becoming the largest incremental source in the A-share market, which has led to significant outperformance of indices like the "Moutai Index" and "Ning Combination" [26][31]. - The issuance scale of public funds has gradually increased, with a notable surge in 2020 [28][31]. Private Equity and Market Styles - Private equity has played a crucial role in shaping the "small high-growth" style since 2021, contributing to market dynamics [32][35]. - In 2022, the market experienced a shift towards stock competition due to reduced incremental funding, leading to rapid style rotation [35][42]. 2023 Market Characteristics - The market in 2023 exhibited a "dumbbell" pattern, characterized by low valuation and dividend stocks on one end and high-growth stocks benefiting from AI and technology breakthroughs on the other [42][46]. - Insurance funds and quantitative private equity have been pivotal in driving this dual market performance [42][46]. Future Projections - For 2024, ETFs and insurance funds are expected to be the main drivers of market value style, particularly in banking and non-banking sectors [46][47]. - By 2025, a more active market sentiment is anticipated, with private equity and margin trading funds accelerating their inflow, contributing to a bullish market atmosphere [47][48]. ETF Market Expansion - The ETF market has rapidly expanded, with significant growth in assets under management, particularly in stock ETFs, which reached approximately 3.04 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [56][100]. - The regulatory environment has been supportive of passive investment strategies, further driving ETF growth [65][104]. Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among various investors, including institutions and retail investors, to use ETFs for A-share market exposure [66][68]. - The trading volume of major ETFs has surged, indicating heightened market activity and investor interest [70][72]. Other Important Insights - The research highlights the importance of understanding the preferences and behaviors of different types of funds, as they significantly influence market styles and trends [21][22]. - The analysis also points out the risks associated with historical data and the potential discrepancies in conclusions drawn from different time frames [4][4]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the dynamics of the A-share market and the critical role of various funding sources in shaping market trends.

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.15%, marking the beginning of a short-term bullish trend referred to as the "924 market" [1] - Prior to this surge, the Shanghai Composite Index had been in a downward trend for over two years, closing at 2748.92 points on September 23, 2024, with a trading volume of 235.2 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume increased dramatically from 550.4 billion yuan on September 23, 2024, to 2.49 trillion yuan, indicating a nearly fourfold increase in market activity [1] Group 2 - The average stock price in the A-share market rose from 14.29 yuan on September 23, 2024, to 26.17 yuan one year later, reflecting a substantial increase [2] - A total of 1498 stocks, approximately 29% of listed companies, saw price increases exceeding 100% over the past year, while 167 stocks experienced declines [2] - The "deposit migration" phenomenon is identified as a key driver for the ongoing market rally, with the ratio of household deposits to total A-share market value decreasing from around 210% to 157% [2][3] Group 3 - The trend of "deposit migration" has been gradually emerging, driven by lower interest rates and a shift in asset allocation among residents, leading to increased investment in non-bank asset management products [3] - Despite a limited overall proportion of deposit migration, it represents a significant incremental flow into non-bank asset management, with low-risk products remaining the main focus [3] - The "deposit migration" phenomenon is recognized as a consensus in the market, significantly influencing the capital market's performance since the "9.24 market" [4] Group 4 - The liquidity indicators suggest that the trend of "deposit migration" continues, with a potential of 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan still available for migration, indicating ongoing market activity [4] - The recent decline in deposit interest rates has prompted residents to seek better returns in risk assets, further fueling the "deposit migration" trend [4]