U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 20, 2026.The Supreme Court's decision Friday to throw out a large number of tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on imports was widely expected. What's far less certain is the longer-run impacts as the economy and markets again adjust to a changed landscape.Trump and other Wh ...

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -23K to 206K, compared with the 223K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to a 5-month high of 16.3 in February, stronger than expectations of 7.5. At the same time, the U.S. December trade deficit widened to -$70.3 billion, weaker than expectations of -$55.5 billion. In addition, U.S. pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m in January, weake ...

showing the trade deficit surging in December. This is important too. 70 billion up 33% from November.Let's discuss it all with David Zervos. He's the chief market strategist at Jeffre. David, it's great to see you.I mean, is it bad. I kind of want to talk trade deficit a little bit. Like it's was that just a one-mon aberration.What's going on here. >> I think look, I've never gotten very excited about one month or even three months of data. I think you need to see the trend and the trend has been that uh t ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Economic growth will likely be soft during the first half of this year, held back by gloomy consumer sentiments and weak new orders for manufactured goods, the Conference Board said Thursday. The Leading Economic Index fell 0.2% in December for its fifth straight monthly decline despite strength in equity markets, a rise in building permits for private housing ...

I have covered the market from countless angles in recent months. Especially in recent weeks, we have spent a lot of time on AI disruption, widening economic growth, and the cyclical growth recovery that has propelled my portfolio to newLeo Nelissen is a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist with a passion for dividend growth, high-quality compounders, and structural investment themes. He combines big-picture macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify durable businesses with strong c ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is easing, job markets are stable, and economic growth remains solid, but declaring victory over these issues may be premature due to the emergence of new risks [1] Group 1 - Inflation rates are showing signs of easing, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy [1] - Job markets are holding up well, suggesting resilience in employment despite previous economic challenges [1] - Economic growth is described as solid, reflecting a positive outlook for the overall economic environment [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that after years of high prices, the current situation may still pose risks that could affect future economic stability [1] - New risks are emerging that could impact the economic landscape, warranting caution in interpreting current economic indicators as a sign of complete recovery [1]

Group 1: Tariff Costs and Impact - A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that nearly 90% of the cost of President Trump's 2025 tariffs was borne by US firms and consumers, contradicting claims that foreign countries were responsible for the costs [1][4][9] - In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs were absorbed by American businesses and consumers, with this share decreasing to 92% in September and October, and further to 86% in November as foreign exporters began to take on more costs [1][2][9] Group 2: Revenue and Economic Effects - The US collected $30 billion in customs duties in January alone, leading to a fiscal year-to-date total of $124 billion, which represents a 304% increase from the same period a year earlier [10] - For the calendar year 2025, tariff collections reached $287 billion, nearly tripling the previous year's total, with projections indicating that levies will raise $171.1 billion in 2026, marking the largest tax increase since 1993 [10] Group 3: Domestic Investment and Supply Chain Diversification - Tariffs have reportedly spurred domestic investment and supply-chain diversification, with companies like Stellantis pledging $13 billion, Toyota $10 billion, and Apple announcing $600 billion in US investment [12] - China's share of US imports has decreased to below 10% in 2025, down from nearly 25% in 2017, as Mexico and Vietnam have gained market share, which advocates argue reduces dependence on a single foreign supplier [13]

Economic Outlook - The overall economy is perceived to be weaker than widely anticipated, with job creation effectively flatlining and retail sales remaining stagnant [4][14][20] - Inflation is still considered high, particularly for necessities, but is not expected to rise further, with CPI inflation year-over-year closer to 3% rather than the reported 2% [3][11] Tariff Policy - There are no plans to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs, as stated by Peter Navarro, despite complaints from manufacturers about high tariffs impacting consumer prices [6][8] - The complexity of the current tariff system has caused confusion among manufacturers, with reports of inconsistent tariff rates on similar products [9][10] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve may be forced to ease monetary policy due to stagnant job creation and rising unemployment duration, which is currently around half a year [15][19] - There is a belief that easing measures are already in effect, contributing to a shift in market leadership towards small caps, value stocks, and cyclical sectors [18][19] GDP and Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is reported at 1.8%, with personal consumption and investment spending barely exceeding 2%, indicating a potential stall speed for the economy [19][20] - The fiscal deficit to GDP has contracted from over 7% to 5%, suggesting some room for fiscal easing [16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the average human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, highlighting significant disparities in human capital across countries [4][8] - On average, children born today in low- and middle-income countries will forgo 51% of their future potential earnings due to current levels of human capital development [1][19] - The HCI+ reveals that a child born today could earn 47% more globally if their country's human capital matched that of top performers at similar income levels, with a 51% increase for low- and middle-income countries [19][20] Summary by Sections Introduction - There are vast productivity differences across countries, with GDP per hour worked in the most productive countries being over 30 times that of the least productive [3] - Two-thirds of low- and middle-income countries have seen a deterioration in core dimensions of human capital over the past 15 years [3] Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) - The HCI+ extends the original Human Capital Index by measuring human capital accumulation beyond age 18, focusing on health, education, and employment up to age 65 [6][8] - The index is decomposable, allowing for easy identification of components contributing to observed gaps in human capital [6] Global Patterns - Human capital deficits exist in all countries, with significant disparities; on average, countries operate roughly 40 points below best-in-class performance [25] - Regions below the global HCI+ average could increase future labor earnings by 58% to 76% if they matched top performers [32][34] Gender Gaps - There is a 20-point difference in the HCI+ between men and women globally, translating to 20% lower labor earnings for women [42][44] - Closing gender gaps in regions like MENAAP and South Asia could lead to potential earnings increases of 70% and 56% for women, respectively [44][46] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for targeted investments in nutrition, health, education, and employment to address human capital shortfalls [50][51] - It advocates for broader policy approaches that include home environments and neighborhoods, as well as workplace learning opportunities [53][55]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is signaling concerns about economic growth following disappointing retail sales data, leading to a rally in government debt and a reassessment of interest rates and inflation expectations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - December's retail sales data showed flat growth, indicating a slowdown in American consumer spending at the end of the previous year [1]. - The annual pace of U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter was revised up to 4.4% from 4.3%, which initially raised fears of overheating in the economy [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - The benchmark 10-year yield fell by 5.3 basis points to 4.14%, marking the lowest level in almost four weeks, after reaching 4.3% last month [1]. - The rate on the 30-year bond dropped by 6.6 basis points to 4.78%, the lowest since late January [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Traders are reassessing the implications of U.S. economic weakness for the global economy, particularly in Europe [1]. - Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, stated that previous fears of an overheating economy were misplaced [1].