Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively with all three major indices rising, indicating a favorable market sentiment [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42% to 25,800 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed with a rise of 1.05% to 5,535 points [1] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong showed slight gains, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) experiencing a minor increase, led by stocks such as Zhenjiu Lidou, which rose nearly 6% [1] Tourism and Consumer Trends - Domestic flight bookings to Hainan exceeded 720,000, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, reflecting strong travel demand [1] - The average spending per customer during the New Year holiday increased by 10% year-on-year, with the number of items purchased per person rising by 9% [1] - Car rental demand during the New Year period surged by about 1.8 times year-on-year, with a 2.5% increase in the number of people opting for different pickup and drop-off locations [1] - The top three cities for self-driving trips were Haikou, Sanya, and Urumqi, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards personalized travel experiences [1] Consumer Behavior Insights - The resilience of tourism consumption in Hainan and the increase in average spending suggest that the middle class continues to show strong purchasing power during holiday seasons [1] - The emergence of "pet economy" and "self-driving travel" during the New Year holiday reflects consumers' willingness to pay a premium for personalized and private experiences, indicating a shift towards "emotional consumption" reshaping the tourism industry [1] Related ETFs - Tourism ETF (562510) is positioned to benefit from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy [2] - Food and Beverage ETF (515170) is seen as undervalued and poised to boost domestic demand [2] - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) is linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates several companies as "Buy," including Yili, Shanxi Fen Wine, Ninebot, Midea, YUTO, and Huali [5][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance between 'new consumption' stocks, which are experiencing strong growth, and 'traditional consumption' stocks, which are underperforming due to their reliance on macroeconomic conditions and stimulus policies [2][30]. - Key investment themes for 2H25 include structural opportunities and high earnings growth in new consumption trends, market share gains in traditional sectors, and high dividend yields from established consumer leaders [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report notes slower-than-expected implementation of consumption stimulus policies in 1H25, impacting sectors like home appliances and baijiu [2][18]. - The divergence in stock performance is attributed to the macro recovery lacking visibility, with new consumption stocks benefiting from structural opportunities [30][31]. 2. Investment Themes - Structural opportunities and high earnings growth are expected in areas such as smart home products, mass snacks, beauty, and pet care [3][10]. - Market share gains are anticipated in traditional consumer sectors, particularly through consolidation and domestic substitution [3][10]. - High dividend stocks, particularly in baijiu, dairy, and white goods, are highlighted as attractive due to strong cash flows and supportive policies [3][10]. 3. Sector Preferences - The report adjusts sector preferences, ranking dairy products highest, followed by soft drinks, beer, and cosmetics [4]. - It emphasizes the potential for market share consolidation in the e2W sector amid stricter regulations [4]. 4. Stock Picks - Specific stock picks include Yili Industrial, Shanxi Fen Wine, Ninebot, Midea, YUTO, and Huali, all rated as "Buy" due to their strong fundamentals and growth prospects [5][9][11][12][13][14]. 5. Consumer Trends - The report identifies Gen Z as a significant driver of new consumption trends, focusing on emotional and experience-based consumption [38][39][40]. - It notes that Gen Z's preferences are reshaping the consumer market, leading to increased demand for local and trendy brands [39][40].