Core Insights - The NER Pulse indicates that U.S. private employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, showing a decrease from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 17,500 jobs [1] Employment Data Summary - The job growth trend remains positive for the third consecutive week despite a slowdown in the rate of hiring [1] - The four-week moving average of job additions shows fluctuations, with the following weekly averages: - 11,500 jobs for the week ending December 6, 2025 - 17,500 jobs for the week ending November 29, 2025 - 3,750 jobs for the week ending November 22, 2025 - Negative job additions in the weeks prior, including -8,500 jobs for the week ending November 15, 2025, and -11,750 jobs for the week ending November 8, 2025 [1] Publication Schedule - The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except during the weeks when the monthly National Employment Report is released [2] - The next NER Pulse will be released on January 13, 2026, as there will be no publication on December 30, 2025 [3]

The Canadian dollar rose the most since May and yields on the nation’s debt jumped as surprisingly strong employment data triggered bets that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates next year https://t.co/6r5DxolH6e ...

The Federal Reserve's next rate move may hinge on delayed employment data, which won't be released until after its next scheduled rate cut decision. https://t.co/dKgZBQ3kBD ...

Core Insights - Inflation increased in September, with consumer prices rising 3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below Wall Street's expectations [2] - Core consumer prices also rose 3% annually and 0.2% monthly, again underperforming economist projections [2] Inflation Data - Gas prices saw a significant rise of 4.1% in September, marking the largest monthly increase among tracked items, while overall energy prices increased by 1.5% [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on October 28 and 29 to discuss potential interest rate cuts, having previously lowered rates by a quarter-point to a range of 4% to 4.25% [4] - Minutes from the last meeting indicated a division among policymakers regarding the number of additional rate cuts needed, with expectations of rates potentially dropping to between 3.5% and 3.75% by December [4] Employment Data Insights - Job reports have been impacted by a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a decline in job additions, including a reported addition of only 17,000 jobs in September [5] - The private payroll processing firm ADP indicated a decrease of 32,000 private-sector jobs, the largest drop since March 2023 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3% for September, matching August's rate, with Wall Street estimating a higher addition of 55,000 nonfarm jobs [5] Background Context - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Social Security Administration (SSA) were recalled to produce September's inflation data, which is critical for calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security payments [6] - There are uncertainties regarding the release of other economic data due to the government shutdown, including wholesale price data and unemployment reports [6]

Market Impact of Potential Government Shutdown - The market impact of government shutdowns has typically been muted, with about seven shutdowns in the last 40 years [2] - The market doesn't seem very concerned about a potential government shutdown, with the S&P up about 05% and the NASDAQ even higher [3] - A guest believes there's about a 70% chance of a shutdown, which could impact the jobs report and other upcoming reports [3] - Markets don't like uncertainty, especially in a data-dependent time, and a shutdown will impact data releases [5] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Cuts - The market is pricing in a high probability of a rate cut at the October meeting, potentially followed by a second cut [5][6] - The Fed may have to look to other data sources like the ADP report due to the shutdown impacting data releases [5] - The employment backdrop is weakening, with jobless claims ticking up and people working part-time for economic reasons increasing [7][8] Market Broadening and Sector Performance - There is a possibility of market broadening, with small caps potentially outperforming due to being more rate-sensitive [8][10] - Small caps seem like a bit of a catch-up trade that's already lost a lot of steam [12] - Modest weakness in the economy may make leaning into cyclical sectors like industrials and financials less desirable [12] Portfolio Strategy - Bank of America suggested a 25/25/25/25 portfolio allocation: stocks, short-term T-bills, bonds, and gold [13] - A high allocation to short-term instruments like T-bills may be less attractive as money market rates come down with Fed rate cuts [14] - Gold can be used to hedge against inflation, but a diversified portfolio of material stocks could provide similar protection [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape of employment data, inflation pressures, and political influences as it considers future interest rate decisions [1][3][10]. Employment Data and the Fed - The Fed's focus on employment data is shifting due to slowed immigration under the current administration, which limits job growth potential [4][5]. - The variability in job growth data complicates economic analysis, as recent employment gains may not reflect true economic conditions without understanding immigration trends [5][6]. Inflation Data and the Fed - The Fed is closely monitoring inflation data, which is influenced by both underlying inflationary pressures and tariffs, making it challenging to determine the appropriate policy response [9]. - Recent inflation trends have raised questions about whether changes are temporary or indicative of a longer-term trend, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [9]. Politics and the Fed's Policies - Political pressures, particularly from President Trump, are influencing the Fed's interest rate decisions, with potential implications for the independence of the institution [11][15]. - The structure of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) allows for political influence, especially if the president appoints members aligned with his agenda [12][15]. Future Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is likely to continue small interest rate cuts into 2025 and 2026, influenced by recent employment weaknesses and political dynamics [16][17]. - The balance between maintaining the Fed's independence and responding to political pressures will be a critical factor in future interest rate decisions [17].

Data Collection Review - The Labor Department's Office of Inspector General is initiating a review of the challenges the BLS faces in collecting data [1] - The review will focus on challenges and mitigating strategies for collecting PPI and CPI data [2] - The review will also focus on collecting, reporting, and revising monthly employment data [2] Context and Response - The review follows the president's move to fire the BLS commissioner last month [2] - The Labor Secretary stated the department is committed to finding solutions to data problems, including modernization for improved transparency and accuracy [2] Timeline - No specific timeline for the review has been laid out [3]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 601 points, a decrease of 0.74%. The S&P 500 fell by 0.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite plummeted by 473.75 points, marking its largest drop since April. The total market capitalization of US stocks evaporated by over $1 trillion [1][2]. Employment Data - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. Additionally, previous months' employment figures were revised down significantly, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [5]. Federal Reserve Implications - Due to the disappointing employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 37.7% to 75.5% [5]. Gold Market Reaction - In response to the market conditions and economic data, gold prices surged over 2%, closing at $3,362.64 per ounce [3]. Political Developments - President Trump criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics and called for the dismissal of its director, Erica McEntyre, alleging that employment data was artificially inflated ahead of the 2024 elections. He also suggested that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell should resign [5][6].

Investors in US Treasuries will scour employment data Friday for clearer evidence of a hiring slowdown that could open the door to the Fed cutting interest rates in September https://t.co/4jMhlg79Dv ...

RT Bloomberg en Español (@BBGenEspanol)🎙Wall Street sube antes de datos cruciales de empleo en EE.UU.; republicanos en la Cámara votarían hoy el paquete fiscal de Trump; jongilbert9 comenta su reportaje sobre la importancia del campo petrolero Vaca Muerta para el gobierno del presidente Javier Milei.Spotify: https://t.co/ckuXEmEwteApple: https://t.co/5kPpV1KNABYoutube: https://t.co/WAqkahL0DL ...