India ramped up the use of a key tool in defending the rupee to record levels, sources say, as it seeks to support the currency which is at an all-time low against the dollar https://t.co/d0SGeYjm9k ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas digital advertising market is expected to accelerate growth in 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of 16.2% to reach $616.7 billion, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and high base effects from the 2024 elections and Olympics [2][4]. Group 1: 2025 Advertising Industry Review - The digital advertising market is experiencing a significant growth acceleration, with major companies like Alphabet, Meta, and independent platforms like AppLovin showing strong performance [4]. - The growth is attributed to a "three-layer funnel" model: favorable exchange rates, increased inventory from short video penetration and streaming ads, and AI-driven improvements in ad recall and precision [2][4][10]. - The revenue growth of major platforms is notable, with Alphabet's revenue increasing from $65.5 billion in Q4 2024 to $82.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [9]. Group 2: 2026 Advertising Industry Outlook - The digital advertising market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driven by five key variables: the return of cyclical events, potential exchange rate benefits, product advantages from short video consumption, advancements in AI technology, and evolving market dynamics [2][25]. - The upcoming U.S. elections and major sports events are anticipated to inject significant marketing budgets into the advertising sector [25]. - AI-driven models are expected to enhance monetization efficiency, with platforms like Meta already demonstrating improved return on ad spend (ROAS) through algorithm upgrades [19][30]. Group 3: Supply and Technology Dynamics - The supply side is seeing structural expansion of quality inventory, which is reshaping budget allocations among advertisers [20]. - The integration of AI in the advertising funnel is enhancing conversion rates, particularly in the recall and precision stages, allowing platforms to better match ads with user intent [14][16]. - Meta's algorithm upgrades have shown tangible improvements in ad performance, with significant increases in conversion efficiency reported [19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The advertising budget is increasingly concentrating on platforms with scalable quality inventory and advanced predictive algorithms, reinforcing the "Matthew Effect" where leading companies gain more advantages [20]. - First-tier companies like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are building strong performance moats, while independent platforms like AppLovin are capitalizing on niche markets [20]. - Second-tier platforms, such as The Trade Desk, are experiencing stable growth, while third-tier platforms like Snap and Pinterest face structural challenges due to limited data and algorithmic capabilities [21].

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.23%.  The dollar is climbing today on weakness in the yen, which fell to a 2-week low against the dollar.  Also, today's better-than-expected US economic news of Dec S&P composite-20 home prices and Feb consumer confidence is supportive of the dollar. Gains in the dollar are limited due to the strength of the yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar today.  Also, US trade uncertainty may spur foreign investors to dump dollar assets as President ...

China’s exchange rate, adjusted for inflation, would have to move a lot to correct its undervaluation. But that could jeopardise the country’s economic recovery and deepen deflation. The IMF proposes an alternative way out https://t.co/Ak9Qit1oxC ...

What are you thinking about UK assets as we go into this week. Well, just stepping back a bit, I actually quite like UK assets as a whole own overweight UK equities, overweight UK gilts and investment grade credit, and I suspect that throughout the year sterling can appreciate a bit against the dollar that maybe saves as much about the dollar as it does about Sterling. On the positive side, the Bank of England is cutting rates and I think they'll probably cut three times this year, bringing the policy rate ...

For Singaporeans heading into Malaysia for their weekly shopping trip, you might find that your Singapore dollar just doesn't stretch as far against their >> ring. >> For more, we're actually joined by our resident Asian currency expert Marcus Wong. Tell us a little bit more about what's happening with the Singapore dollar Malaysian ring cross.>> Well, as you mentioned, you know, the ring has been doing very well. Uh if you look at the Singapore ring cross, it's there about 3.10% right now. Slightly over tw ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain the repo rate unchanged due to various domestic and international challenges, including global uncertainty, rising government bond yields, and volatility in the Indian rupee [1][11]. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Government bond yields have remained firm despite earlier rate cuts, indicating that monetary policy measures have not fully transmitted to the market [2][11]. - The effectiveness of Open Market Operations (OMOs) may be limited by the type of securities selected, which could hinder liquidity support [3][11]. - The RBI is likely to adopt a cautious stance and maintain the current repo rate due to mixed signals on growth and inflation [10][11]. Trade and Export Outlook - The finalization of the EU-India and US-India trade deals has significantly reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, positioning India with one of the lowest tariff rates in Asia [4][6]. - This reduction is expected to enhance export competitiveness and support economic growth [6][11]. Global Economic Concerns - The global economy remains uncertain, with warnings that increased economic stress worldwide could negatively impact growth in the coming months [7][11]. - Recovery in metal prices after a recent decline may exert additional pressure on inflation, complicating the overall economic outlook [7][11]. Currency Volatility - The Indian rupee has experienced significant fluctuations, trading between 89 and 92 against the US dollar over the past two months, and has weakened by approximately 5.8% since early April [9][11]. - Such currency volatility may lead the RBI to be more cautious in adjusting interest rates [9][11]. Inflation Signals - New Consumer Price Index (CPI) weightings could slightly increase inflation readings by 20-30 basis points, although high food inflation may result in lower index numbers during certain months [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the current repo rate due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and domestic currency volatility [1][2][9] Economic Factors - The central bank is likely to hold rates steady as macroeconomic challenges persist, despite previous policy-rate easing [2] - Government bond yields have been hardening recently, indicating pressure on the financial markets [2] Monetary Policy Operations - The effectiveness of Open Market Operations may be limited by the choice of eligible securities, potentially affecting the transmission of monetary policy actions [3] Trade Developments - The finalization of trade deals between India and the EU, as well as the US, has significantly reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, enhancing export competitiveness [4] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy remains uncertain, with the Geo-Economics Stress Index indicating that heightened uncertainty may lead to economic stress in the near term [5] Commodity Market Insights - Metal prices have rebounded after a significant sell-off, complicating the inflation and growth outlook [6] - The US Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts due to slack in the labor market and stagnant real disposable incomes, which could influence global capital flows [6] Currency Movements - The Indian rupee has experienced volatility, depreciating by 5.8% against the US dollar since April 2, 2025, but appreciated following the India-US trade deal [7] Inflation Trends - New CPI weights suggest a marginal increase in overall CPI by 20-30 basis points, although higher food inflation could lead to a lower CPI in certain months [8] Policy Stance - Given the mixed economic signals, the RBI is likely to adopt a cautious approach and keep policy rates unchanged [9]

Our Big Mac index shows that Japan is not the only big Asian economy with a cheap currency. The undervaluation of the rupee and the yuan has also worsened over the past year https://t.co/iXDk1ByMcGIllustration: Ben Hickey https://t.co/cU4idZ8A3k ...

The Singapore dollar now goes further in the US and across much of Asia. How long can its rally last? https://t.co/LHMBC2DKWS ...