泰国旅游局预计今年外国游客人数同比减少6%，为10年来除疫情外的首次年度下降，反映了安全问题和泰铢偏强汇率抑制了来自中国等主要市场的游客需求。分析师认为，泰国旅游需求与商品出口疲软将限制泰铢的上涨空间。 ...

The US Treasury bought Argentine pesos Thursday at the parallel exchange rate known among investors as the “blue chip swap,” Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X Friday https://t.co/3CAYmvYZ8u ...

India’s rupee has barely budged over the past three weeks, prompting some traders to speculate that the central bank is once again tightening its grip on the currency https://t.co/o3ygkARE6c ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

Currency Market - The Thai baht is projected to achieve its largest annual increase in six years against the US dollar [1] Government Impact - This appreciation poses a challenge for the new government led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul [1]

Exchange Rate Policy - China's central bank is subtly shifting its strategy towards favoring a stronger yuan exchange rate [1] - This shift is speculated to be driven by an improving economic outlook [1]

Currency Market - The yuan may appreciate further past 7 against the dollar [1] - Debate is growing among market participants over whether Beijing will allow the yuan to appreciate [1]

Summary of PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Report Industry Overview - The report pertains to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its implications for the Chinese economy. Key Points 1. **Monetary Policy Stance** The PBOC maintained a "moderately loose" policy stance in its Q2 monetary policy report released on August 15, indicating a limited appetite for broad-based monetary easing despite an easing bias [2][3][4] 2. **Implementation of Policies** The emphasis was placed on executing existing policies and targeted easing, suggesting a measured and reactive approach to monetary policy rather than aggressive easing [2][3] 3. **Credit Extension** The report indicated a shift in tone regarding credit extension, moving from "intensify credit extension" to "maintain steady support for credit extension." This reflects a response to July's weak loan growth [4] 4. **Targeted Easing Focus** The PBOC highlighted the importance of targeted easing through policy guidance, particularly in key areas such as technological innovation, rural development, elderly care, services consumption, and inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises [4] 5. **Shift in Loan Distribution** The share of new loans has shifted significantly, with over 60% previously allocated to real estate and infrastructure, now focusing more on five priority areas including tech innovation and green transition [4][9] 6. **Exchange Rate Management** The report reinstated "the three firm commitments" regarding exchange rates, indicating a preference for a stronger Chinese Yuan (CNY). The PBOC is expected to guide a gradual appreciation of the CNY [10] 7. **Monetary Policy Transmission** The PBOC called for "smooth monetary policy transmission" and emphasized the guiding role of policy rates and market self-regulatory pricing mechanisms [3] 8. **Financial Stability Concerns** The report reiterated the need to prevent idle money circulation and highlighted the trade-off between pro-growth easing and financial stability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] Additional Important Insights - The PBOC's approach reflects a balance between stimulating economic growth and maintaining financial stability, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics in the near term [3][4]

Currency Valuation - The analysis indicates that the Taiwanese dollar is significantly undervalued against the US dollar [1] - The report provides a guide to exchange-rate distortions for various currencies [1]

Exchange Rate Policy - Bank Negara Malaysia states the ringgit's exchange rate is market-determined [1] Central Bank Operations - The central bank's derivative positions are used to manage liquidity conditions [1]