China’s central bank is nudging the yuan higher, stoking speculation of a subtle shift in strategy toward favoring a stronger exchange rate as the economic outlook improves https://t.co/32KxAWbOJp ...

The yuan may see further gains past 7 against the dollar, according to a top Chinese economist, as debate grows among market participants over whether Beijing will allow it to appreciate https://t.co/39G5AwqtYL ...

Summary of PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Report Industry Overview - The report pertains to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its implications for the Chinese economy. Key Points 1. **Monetary Policy Stance** The PBOC maintained a "moderately loose" policy stance in its Q2 monetary policy report released on August 15, indicating a limited appetite for broad-based monetary easing despite an easing bias [2][3][4] 2. **Implementation of Policies** The emphasis was placed on executing existing policies and targeted easing, suggesting a measured and reactive approach to monetary policy rather than aggressive easing [2][3] 3. **Credit Extension** The report indicated a shift in tone regarding credit extension, moving from "intensify credit extension" to "maintain steady support for credit extension." This reflects a response to July's weak loan growth [4] 4. **Targeted Easing Focus** The PBOC highlighted the importance of targeted easing through policy guidance, particularly in key areas such as technological innovation, rural development, elderly care, services consumption, and inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises [4] 5. **Shift in Loan Distribution** The share of new loans has shifted significantly, with over 60% previously allocated to real estate and infrastructure, now focusing more on five priority areas including tech innovation and green transition [4][9] 6. **Exchange Rate Management** The report reinstated "the three firm commitments" regarding exchange rates, indicating a preference for a stronger Chinese Yuan (CNY). The PBOC is expected to guide a gradual appreciation of the CNY [10] 7. **Monetary Policy Transmission** The PBOC called for "smooth monetary policy transmission" and emphasized the guiding role of policy rates and market self-regulatory pricing mechanisms [3] 8. **Financial Stability Concerns** The report reiterated the need to prevent idle money circulation and highlighted the trade-off between pro-growth easing and financial stability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] Additional Important Insights - The PBOC's approach reflects a balance between stimulating economic growth and maintaining financial stability, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics in the near term [3][4]

Our quick-and-dirty guide to exchange-rate distortions concludes that the Taiwanese dollar is greatly undervalued against the greenback. See where other currencies stand https://t.co/CtiENbF1di ...

Bank Negara Malaysia says the ringgit’s exchange rate is market-determined and that the central bank’s derivative positions are used to manage liquidity conditions https://t.co/6r6T9KhUR9 ...

When you look at trade negotiations right now, could they actually change the outcome of the European economy. Well, I think that there's going to be a very relevant factor. And if you see, for instance, if you watch our our predictions, they are different alternatives, different different scenarios according to the different outcomes that we might have.I hope that, you know, the negotiations will be finalized. So at least this, you know, will deliver a little bit of predictability because now, you know, th ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/04 注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.460 105.690 108.685 105.960 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4641% 1.5877% 1.6520% 日度变化(BP) -24.00 -11.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/03 | 4.456 | 4.637 | 3.189 | 2.524 | 3.4 ...