Group 1 - The China-Japan trade tensions are escalating, with Japan warning that China's export curbs could impact over 40% of its exports to Japan [1] - China's new punitive measures include controls on dual-use items, likely affecting shipments of semiconductors and rare earth materials to Japan's defense sector [3][6] - An anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorosilane imports has been initiated by China, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing [6][7] Group 2 - The investigation into dichlorosilane imports is expected to conclude by January next year, with a possibility of extension [7] - Preliminary evidence indicates a 31% cumulative price decline in dichlorosilane imports from Japan from 2022 to 2024, despite an overall increasing volume trend [8] - Shares related to rare earths surged across Asia-Pacific markets following the announcement, with notable increases in companies like Toyo Engineering Corp and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd [11] Group 3 - The vague nature of China's announcement has led to speculation about potential de-escalation, with some analysts suggesting it may be a strategy to pressure Japan for concessions [9][10] - The ongoing tensions have caused jitters in the stock market, particularly after a strong start to the year for regional stocks, indicating a potential overheating situation [12] - China has been steadily retaliating against Japan through various measures, including trade restrictions and military threats [13]

7 January 2026 | 8:48AM JST Equity Research +81(3)4587-9806 | yuichiro.isayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Takeru Adachi +81(3)4587-4067 | takeru.adachi@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Takato Enoki +81(3)4587-1739 | takato.enoki@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Japan Industrials: China tightens controls on export of dual-use items to Japan, media reports on risk of de facto restrictions on rare earth What happened On the evening of January 6 Japan time, China's Ministry of Commerce announc ...

Let's quickly get to Capitol Hill and Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong about to meet with Senate Banking Committee. >> American leadership is really important and so we we have to work together to ensure national security that we can lead technologically around the world and have the world build on American technology. >> Any concerns about your chips going to China.Uh, of course there is and uh we have to ensure that United States has the best technology at all times. Uh, but that United States uh technology industr ...

中国商务部就半导体流动问题表示，将批准符合条件的中国出口商的相关出口许可申请。针对稀土出口管制问题，中国商务部表示，中国依法依规开展许可审查，对符合规定的申请予以许可。中欧在经贸领域有着广泛的共同利益和巨大的合作空间。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):安世半导体（Nexperia）官网更新动态：期待尽快获悉有关放宽出口限制的条件、标准及程序的进一步细节；无法保证自10月13日起从中国工厂交付的产品在知识产权、技术、真实性及质量标准方面的合规性；有关张学政恢复CEO职务的传言不实；相信局势有望尽快缓和。 https://t.co/77uSiquEGk ...

中国商务部：中方决定自2025年11月10日起，对第13号公告的15家美国实体停止两用物项出口管制管控，对第21号公告的16家美国实体继续暂停上述相关措施1年。 https://t.co/8xNJB7nYWT ...

China took a page out of the US export control playbook with its latest move on rare earths. Europe may join the game of copycat with tech transfer rules https://t.co/ri7VwZzizY ...

中国商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问：中国的（稀土）出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估，并确信相关影响非常有限。措施出台前，中方已通过双边出口管制对话机制向各有关国家和地区进行了通报。9月中美马德里经贸会谈以来，短短20多天时间，美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，将多家中国实体列入出口管制实体清单和特别指定国民清单；通过穿透性规则任意扩大受管制企业范围，影响中方数千家企业；无视中方关切和善意，执意落地对华海事、物流和造船业301措施。美方的行为严重损害中方利益，严重破坏双方经贸会谈氛围，中方对此坚决反对。中方的反制措施（对涉美船舶收取船舶特别港务费）是必要的被动防御行为，旨在维护中国产业和企业正当权益，也为了维护国际航运和造船市场的公平竞争环境。 ...

Trade Restrictions - China's new rare-earth material restrictions represent a nearly unprecedented export control [1] - The restrictions have the potential to disrupt the global economy [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the rare earth industry but emphasizes China's strategic leverage over the supply chain as a significant factor in trade negotiations [1][3]. Core Insights - China's control over rare earth supply is a calibrated tool for strategic influence, with a near-monopoly in the supply chain, making rare earths a significant bargaining chip in trade negotiations [1][3]. - Recent changes in China's export controls on rare earth elements, particularly on seven heavier elements, indicate a shift towards using rare earths as a strategic lever amid rising trade tensions and technology restrictions [2][4]. - The report highlights that China currently controls over 85% of global rare earth refining and 90% of NdFeB magnet production, which are critical for various advanced technologies [12]. Summary by Sections Export Controls and Strategic Leverage - China has imposed export controls on seven heavier rare earth elements and their processed products since April 2025, which are essential for modern manufacturing processes [2][4]. - The tightening of export licenses allows Beijing to regulate the volume, destination, and end-use of rare earth materials, enhancing its ability to exert targeted influence [11]. - An export tracking system is being developed to strengthen oversight of finished magnet exports, indicating a systematic approach to control [11]. Market Share and Production Capacity - China holds a dominant market share across the rare earth supply chain, with significant control over mining, refining, and magnet production [7][12]. - The report notes that while mining capacity can be expanded relatively easily, refining and magnet production face technological and environmental challenges, making them harder to replace [14][15][16]. Geopolitical Implications - The current rare earth controls are seen as a mechanism for testing strategic responses to tech restrictions imposed by the US and its allies, aiming to reshape global tech and trade dynamics [13]. - The report suggests that China's actions may lead to reciprocal escalations in trade policies, particularly in response to restrictions on technology exports from the US [13]. Recent Developments - Since the implementation of export controls, several magnet producers have received export permits, indicating a gradual resumption of exports to key markets [17][18]. - The report highlights that while magnets are subject to export controls, motors containing them are not, allowing for alternative production strategies [19].

US and Chinese officials including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, and US Trade Rep. Jameson Greer are in London Monday for trade negotiations as both nations work to reach a deal while hefty reciprocal tariffs are paused. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset telling CBS he's quote very comfortable with the prospect of the US and China reaching a deal. Wendy Schiller, Brown University professor of political science joins us now for more. Wendy, great to speak wi ...