Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates aggressively in early 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The job market is still flagging, particularly in early 2026, which will lead to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment, prompting the Fed to cut rates [2]. - Zandi anticipates three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year 2026, contrasting with market expectations of only two cuts later in the year [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Outlook - Current market pricing indicates a first cut not until at least April 2026, with a second cut likely around September, while Fed officials are even more cautious, expecting only one cut throughout the year [3][4]. - The Fed's individual officials' expectations suggest a tepid pace for any potential reductions, with recent minutes indicating that the decision for a cut was a close call [4]. Group 3: Political Influence - The potential for President Trump to reshape the Fed's hierarchy adds uncertainty, as he currently has three appointees on the board and is likely to appoint another loyalist soon [5][6]. - Trump's advocacy for lower interest rates may lead to increased political pressure on the Fed, especially with midterm congressional elections approaching [7].

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan pointed out that the U.S. economy is much bigger than the Federal Reserve, which shouldn’t merit so much attention. In an interview with CBS News’ Face the Nation that aired Sunday, he was asked about President Donald Trump’s upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell and what it means for consumers. “There’s too much fascination with the Fed,” Moynihan said. The economy is driven by the private sector, which includes small, medium, and large compa ...

Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are in a neck-and-neck race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – with the lead changing hands on prediction markets several times this week.Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, regained the top spot on Kalshi and Polymarket on Tuesday as he pleaded his case for the job.The Fed’s “independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Federal Open Market Committee], they’re important, too,” Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday.Kevin ...

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, one of the finalists for the Federal Reserve chair job, showed support Tuesday for central bank independence.With President Donald Trump apparently in the final days of picking a successor to Jerome Powell at the Fed, Hassett declined in a CNBC interview to directly address his own candidacy but said forging consensus is an important part of the job."The Federal Reserve's independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Fe ...

A leading candidate to be President Donald Trump's choice for Federal Reserve chair said that he would present the president's views to Fed officials for their consideration but they could reject them if they chose when making decisions on interest rates. Kevin Hassett, in an interview Sunday on CBS News' "Face the Nation,†said he would continue to speak with Trump if he becomes the Fed chair. But when asked if Trump's opinions on interest rates would have "equal weighting†with members of the Fed's interest ...

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren labeled President Donald Trump's top contenders to lead the Federal Reserve "sock puppets" on Thursday, singling out Kevin Hassett as someone who would not be able to maintain the U.S. central bank's independence. ...

Welcome back everybody. Time to bring in our next guest, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is the lead Democrat on the banking committee. And Senator Warren, thank you for being with us this morning.Um, from your position on the banking committee, thought we might start with the Federal Reserve, what you thought about what happened yesterday, and maybe more importantly, what you think about this overall conversation about who will take over the Federal Reserve next, who the next chairman will be. I I know in th ...

Bloomberg reports that Kevin Hasset has emerged as the front runner to be the next Fed Fed chair uh uh to replace J. Pal. Joining me now is Stephanie Roth, Wolf Research chief economist.Stephanie, it's good to see you. You like all of us, you're thinking about 2026. You're trying to figure out what the picture is going to look like here and you guys are looking for kind of trend growth if I'm not mistaken in terms of GDP for 2026.So, how do you think that's going to play out. >> Yeah. Yeah.So, I mean, it sh ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around the potential appointment of Kevin Hasset as the new Federal Reserve chair, with insights on his qualifications and the implications for monetary policy [1][2][10]. Group 1: Qualifications and Background - Kevin Hasset is viewed as a highly respected candidate, particularly among Federal Reserve staff, and his background as a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers aligns with traditional appointments [2][5]. - The comparison is made between Hasset and Kevin Worsh, noting that while both are capable, Hasset may have an edge in terms of respect within the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Challenges of Leadership - The new chair must build consensus within the committee, as historical examples show that even powerful chairs like Paul Volcker faced opposition from governors [3][9]. - The importance of convincing the committee is emphasized, as the chair is not a dictator but a consensus builder [9]. Group 3: Political Implications - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of the president's preferences on the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding loyalty from appointees [10][12]. - The complexity of the Federal Reserve's operations is highlighted, suggesting that any chair must navigate various interests beyond just rate cuts [11][12].

Give us your response, your thoughts on Kevin Hassett as the next potential Fed chair. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think he's he's seen by markets as as the candidate that is closest to the administration in terms of their their views on interest rates.And that is, you know is clearly more dovish than the the central you know, the consensus on the committee right now. You know, just in terms of the outlook for him, you know, it's no guarantee that Powell will step down from the board when his chairmanship chairma ...