In a world of unlimited money printing and new taxes on unrealized gains, the only way to win is to own assets your government cannot print or debase. In this episode, I'm joined by Jeroen Blok, a professional investor with over 20 years of experience managing institutional wealth. Today we're unpacking his new book, The Great Rebalancing in three parts.From the systemic failure of the 6040 portfolio to the scarce asset solution involving Bitcoin and gold. We discuss why safe government debt has become a we ...

Core Insights - A new market regime is emerging where political announcements have a greater impact on Bitcoin than traditional internal metrics, undermining the relevance of Bitcoin's four-year cycle [1] - The current market dynamics suggest that investors are prioritizing policy signals over the traditional halving cycle, indicating a shift in how Bitcoin's price is influenced [2] Policy Paradigm - Pre-election fiscal stimulus and blurred monetary boundaries are contributing to a shift in market dynamics, described as "financial repression," which affects Bitcoin's performance [3] - U.S. policy is increasingly focused on suppressing borrowing costs through fiscal expansion rather than conventional monetary tightening, creating a supportive environment for digital assets [4] Government Spending and Debt - The U.S. government is advancing multi-trillion-dollar spending measures ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which may constrain the Federal Reserve and increase the likelihood of quasi-QE through administrative channels [5] Future Outlook - Policy forces are expected to significantly influence Bitcoin's outlook for 2026, alongside sustained institutional demand patterns [6]

Core Thesis - The debasement trade suggests that currencies will experience real value erosion due to fiscal dominance, financial repression, and geopolitical instability, leading to a spike in the value of real assets [1] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Currency Erosion - Fiscal dominance is identified as a key factor contributing to the erosion of currency value [1] - Financial repression is another significant element that impacts the real value of currencies [1] - Geopolitical instability is also highlighted as a contributing factor to the depreciation of currency value [1] Group 2: Real Assets - Precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum are expected to see a significant increase in value as a result of the debasement trade [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on global equities, expecting a rise of around 15% by the end of 2026, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and utilities [125][126]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI and innovation to drive market growth, suggesting that these trends could help economies achieve "escape velocity" from traditional economic constraints [5][27]. - It highlights the importance of capital expenditure (capex) in AI, projecting a cumulative USD 4.7 trillion in global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with USD 571 billion expected in 2026 [58][70]. - The longevity market is anticipated to grow significantly, with annual revenues projected to reach USD 8 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in healthcare and technology [90][91]. Summary by Sections Growth - AI-linked innovation is identified as a key driver of market performance, with IT and communication services stocks accounting for 36% of the MSCI AC World index [48][49]. - The report projects that AI can automate a third of tasks, potentially generating around USD 2 trillion in annual revenues from end-users [60][62]. Economic Backdrop - The economic outlook for 2026 is supportive, with expected real GDP growth of close to 2% in the US and over 1% in the Eurozone, driven by fiscal stimulus and improving consumer confidence [102][106]. - In Asia, growth is expected to remain robust at just under 5%, with China focusing on technology innovation and industrial upgrades [109][110]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends allocating up to 30% of equity portfolios to structural growth ideas, particularly in AI, power and resources, and longevity sectors [70][96]. - Commodities are highlighted as attractive investments due to supply constraints and rising demand, with copper prices expected to exceed USD 13,000 per metric ton in 2026 [85][88]. Sector Focus - The US healthcare sector is expected to benefit from improved policy clarity and growing markets, particularly in obesity and oncology [128][129]. - Utilities are favored due to AI-driven power demand and ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant earnings growth anticipated [129][130]. Currency and Diversification - The report suggests favoring the euro and Australian dollar over the US dollar, anticipating that US rate cuts may weigh on the greenback [45][46]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including alternatives like hedge funds and private markets to mitigate risks [45][46].

Core Insights - Privately wealthy individuals are in a strong position with increasing asset values and expectations of significant inheritances, prompting government interest in this wealth [1] - Policymakers are considering various methods to leverage private wealth for public finances, including incentives and regulations [2][3] - The focus on debt-to-GDP ratios highlights concerns about economic growth and the ability to repay debts, influencing government borrowing strategies [3] Government Strategies - Governments may encourage individuals to buy government bonds through tax-free incentives, which can help manage debt without raising market interest rates [4] - Financial repression, such as tax incentives or regulations directing funds into government bonds, is often the initial approach before considering wealth taxation [5] Wealth Transfer - The upcoming Great Wealth Transfer is expected to see $80 trillion changing hands over the next 20 years, with some estimates suggesting up to $124 trillion will be inherited [5]

Bitcoin Outlook - Financial repression and monetary debasement are certainties [1] - Bitcoin's continued ascent is a certainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of financial repression, where the government benefits from low interest rates on savings while inflation erodes purchasing power, leading to a loss of real wealth for savers [2][6][7]. Group 1: Financial Repression and Its Implications - Financial repression is described as a strategy used by the government to manage its $37 trillion debt by ensuring that savings earn less than inflation, effectively allowing the government to benefit from the difference [2][6]. - The article highlights that the U.S. money supply has been growing at an annual rate of 7%, which significantly diminishes the real purchasing power of savings [6][18]. - Historical context is provided, noting that during periods of financial repression, such as from 1942 to 1951, bondholders lost substantial purchasing power while real assets preserved value [18][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advocates for a shift from traditional savings and bonds to hard assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin as a hedge against financial repression [19][21]. - It suggests a portfolio allocation of 10% in gold and silver and 10% in bitcoin, while advising against long-term bonds [21][22]. - The rising interest in gold and silver is noted, with gold prices increasing over 40% in the current year, indicating a broader market recognition of the need for real assets [16][19]. Group 3: Digital Currency and Stablecoins - The introduction of stablecoins, particularly Tether's new U.S. dollar-backed coin USA₮, is discussed as a mechanism that could further entrench financial repression by mandating users to lend money to the government [14][12]. - The article raises concerns about the implications of stablecoins on traditional financial systems, suggesting that they could force individuals into low-yield Treasury bills [15][14]. - Tether's strategy of accumulating gold while promoting stablecoins is highlighted, indicating a potential divergence between the digital currency market and traditional asset management [15][16].

Demographic Trends & Economic Impact - Global population is projected to peak at approximately 97 亿 (9.7 billion) by the 2060s and then decline [5] - The birth rate required to sustain population growth is about 21% (2.1%) children per woman [7] - The average cost of raising a child to adulthood in the United States exceeds 31 万美元 ($310,000) [9] - Public debt in Japan has reached over 250% of GDP [20] Financial System & Investment Strategies - Governments may resort to financial repression, holding interest rates artificially below inflation levels [19] - Consumer debt in the United States has reached record highs, exceeding 18 万亿美元 ($18 trillion), with credit card debt surpassing 1 万亿美元 ($1 trillion) [49] - Companies in Japan increased salaries by nearly 10% in a single year due to labor shortages [32] Labor Market Dynamics - Employees who switched jobs in Japan gained raises averaging over 40% [32] - Demographic collapse is leveling the economic playing field for labor [37] - Rising wages encourage family formation, further tightening labor markets [39] Capitalism & Adaptation - Capitalism thrives on continuous growth, requiring more workers and consumers [43] - Modern corporations are shifting towards a rent extraction model, generating profits from dominating markets [44] - Governments may need to support families and stabilize demographics through affordable housing, child care, healthcare reform, and parental leave [51]