6 February 2026 | 10:05PM HKT Economics Research CHINA MATTERS Lessons Learned from the Last Year We reflect on the macro data and policies we have followed closely over the past year and draw five lessons in this note. These five lessons from the past year have four implications for investors this year. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n First, data quality issues in some official series have become more significant, as seen in the quarter-end pattern of the NBS Manufacturing PMI and the double-digit decli ...

The While that's impressive, prior periods that approached such levels of outperformance have failed to persist. Not to worry, strategists say. They've grown optimistic on small caps as a way to play a broadening out of the bull run for stocks that's been powered by Big Tech. The bet is predicated on expectations for faster Bloomberg "This channel of strong enough growth-but not too strong-and lower or declining rates are two big macro forces that can push small caps higher," said Sebastien Page, chief in ...

Summary of Marcus & Millichap Update / Briefing (January 22, 2026) Company Overview - **Company**: Marcus & Millichap (NYSE: MMI) - **Established**: 1971 by George Marcus and Bill Millichap - **Focus**: Real estate investment brokerage and information delivery to the investment community [3][4] Economic Outlook for 2026 - **GDP Growth**: Expected to be between 2.5% and 3%, an improvement from 2025's growth of 2% to 2.5% [7][8] - **Unemployment Rate**: Currently at 4.4%, projected to rise to between 4.5% and 5% by next year [8] - **Key Growth Drivers**: - **Artificial Intelligence (AI)**: Significant investment in data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the U.S. leading globally [10][11] - **Fiscal Stimulus**: Tax cuts and increased government spending expected to boost GDP by approximately $100 billion, contributing 2%-3% to GDP [13] - **Headwinds**: - **Deglobalization**: Ongoing tariffs and restrictive immigration policies impacting job growth [9][14] - **Labor Market**: Job growth has stagnated, with healthcare being the only sector adding jobs [15][16] Risks to Economic Growth - **K-shaped Economy**: Increasing income inequality affecting consumer spending, with the top 20% of earners driving a significant portion of economic activity [18][19] - **Equity Market Valuations**: High valuations in the stock market pose a risk if AI adoption does not lead to expected productivity gains [20][21] - **Bond Market Fragility**: Concerns about potential dislocation in the bond market, which could impact financial and real estate markets [22][23] Commercial Real Estate Insights - **Market Trends**: - **Apartments**: Stable vacancy rates below 5%, but a significant drop in multifamily starts (72% from peak) and units under construction [36][39] - **Office Market**: Gradual recovery with improved daily attendance, but significant variance in vacancy rates between older urban and newer suburban properties [48][50] - **Industrial Market**: High vacancy rates due to a surge in construction, but demand remains steady for smaller, private investor-owned facilities [51][58] - **Housing Affordability**: Only 28% of Americans can qualify for a typical first home purchase, leading to increased demand for rental housing [39][46] Federal Policy and Housing Market - **Proposed Limitations**: Recent federal proposals to limit acquisition of single-family homes driven by political pressures related to affordability concerns [42][43] - **Supply Focus**: Emphasis on increasing housing supply as a solution to affordability issues, with ongoing advocacy for policies that support this goal [44][46] Conclusion - **Overall Outlook**: 2026 is expected to be a better year for operations and rent growth due to supply pullback and strong demand, although challenges remain in the labor market and economic risks persist [47][48]

Core Insights - The gaming sector is starting 2026 with a focus on online sports betting, despite softer trends in Las Vegas, regional casinos, and Asia affecting near-term expectations [1] Group 1: Online Betting Trends - BofA updated forecasts for Las Vegas, regional casinos, and Macau, while reviewing recent online betting trends and earnings for DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment [2] - Gaming stocks declined approximately 9% in the fourth quarter and into January, with U.S. operators down about 4%, Macau names off 13%, and digital gaming stocks falling 23% [3] - DraftKings is positioned for a strong fourth-quarter performance, while FanDuel faces more pressure due to weaker betting handle and concerns around promotional intensity [4] Group 2: Las Vegas Market Analysis - Fourth-quarter estimates for Las Vegas remain modestly below Street expectations, with BofA's forecast about 1% below consensus for the Strip and roughly 2% below for MGM Resorts [5] - Las Vegas locals are outperforming, with BofA's estimates running above consensus [6] Group 3: Regional and Asian Markets - Macau's fourth-quarter EBITDA is expected to align with Street expectations, driven by strength at MGM China, with BofA slightly above consensus [7] - Marina Bay Sands in Singapore may modestly outperform expectations, supported by events like Formula One and improving hotel metrics [8] - Regional casinos show strength led by MGM Resorts and Boyd Gaming, but potential weakness is noted for Penn Entertainment due to increased competition in Louisiana [8]

Summary of Conference Call on China Banks Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese banking sector, particularly the implications of recent monetary and fiscal stimulus measures announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy Changes - PBoC announced new supportive monetary policies on January 15, including: - Expansion of relending facilities with an additional quota of approximately RMB 1.1 trillion, targeting private enterprises and key industries such as agriculture, small businesses, technological innovation, carbon reduction, service consumption, and elderly care [1]. - A 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut for relending facilities, reducing the rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [7]. - Potential for further cuts in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][2]. Impact on Banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The relending facilities rate cut is expected to benefit banks' NIM by approximately 0.3 bps, as banks can borrow cheaper funds from PBoC [1]. - The balance of relending facilities reached around RMB 5 trillion by Q3 2025, representing about 1% of banks' total assets [1]. - The anticipated fiscal stimulus, including interest subsidies on consumer and micro loans, is expected to have a limited negative impact on banks' NIM [1]. Credit Growth and Loan Demand - The stimulus measures are designed to incentivize banks to direct credit towards policy-favored sectors, supporting loan growth at the beginning of 2026, coinciding with the start of the 15th five-year plan [1]. - There is an expectation of stronger-than-expected loan growth in early 2026 due to these targeted lending initiatives [1]. Treasury Bond Market Dynamics - Lower treasury bond yields are projected to widen the spread between banks' dividend yields and the 10-year China treasury bond yield, attracting yield-seeking investors [2][5]. - The PBoC may actively participate in treasury bond trading to rebalance supply and demand dynamics, potentially lowering treasury bond yields further [2]. Investment Outlook for China Banks - China banks' H-shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 7 percentage points year-to-date in 2026, but there is optimism for recovery due to: - Expected growth in insurers' premiums, leading to increased inflows into high-yield bank stocks [6]. - The attractiveness of banks' dividend yields due to lower treasury bond yields [6]. - The positive impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on loan growth with limited negative effects on NIM [6]. - Specific banks highlighted for potential investment include ICBC-H and BOC-H, which offer above-peer dividend yields and favorable valuations [6]. Insurer Investments in Banks - Notable changes in equity stakes by insurers in various banks were discussed, indicating a trend towards increased financial investments in the banking sector [12]. Additional Important Information - The conference call emphasized the importance of monitoring the evolving regulatory environment and market conditions that could impact the banking sector's performance [1][2][6]. - Analysts expressed caution regarding the potential for NIM compression in FY26, estimating a 6 bps decrease, but noted that RRR cuts and potential deposit rate cuts could provide some offset [2]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Chinese banking sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of recent monetary policies and the outlook for investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase reported a decline in quarterly profit due to a $2.2 billion reserve related to its acquisition of a credit card partnership with Apple, despite a strong underlying performance in trading [1][3]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings fell to $13 billion, or $4.63 per share, down from $14 billion, or $4.81 per share, in the same quarter last year [1]. - Excluding the one-time reserve impact, quarterly profit increased to $14.7 billion, or $5.23 per share, driven by strong trading performance [3]. Economic Outlook - CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with healthy business conditions and consumer spending continuing [4]. - Despite some softening in labor markets, conditions are not worsening, supported by fiscal stimulus and recent monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [4]. Market Conditions - Market revenue at JPMorgan increased by 17% in the fourth quarter, with fixed income rising by 7% and equity surging by 40% [8]. - Concerns about a bubble in AI stocks and potential corrections in equities have made markets jittery [6]. Credit Card Partnership - JPMorgan is establishing a $2.2 billion provision for credit losses in anticipation of new credit card customers from Apple, indicating a cautious approach to the new portfolio [13]. - The credit card industry is facing potential changes due to a proposal to cap interest rates at 10%, although analysts are skeptical about its implementation [14].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson presents a bullish outlook for the U.S. equity market, predicting high teens earnings growth and focusing on the consumer goods sector as a key investment area [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Drivers - Wilson describes the market's path as "crystal clear," driven by a stabilizing Federal Reserve and legislative support that will rejuvenate the consumer sector [2]. - He emphasizes a combination of falling interest rates and fiscal stimulus as factors that will unlock pent-up demand in the consumer goods sector [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector Performance - Wilson identifies consumer goods as his top conviction pick for the year, suggesting that the sector is poised for a rebound after experiencing a "rolling recession" [2]. - The Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index has shown a performance of 9.62% over the last six months, while year-to-date performance is -1.40% and one-year performance is 6.42% [4]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Contrary to concerns about a slowdown, Wilson asserts that the earnings outlook is strengthening, forecasting earnings growth in the "high teens" as the market rally expands beyond the technology sector [5]. - A significant factor in this optimism is the Federal Reserve's renewed asset purchasing to stabilize funding markets, which Wilson views as a positive development for investors [6].

Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson presents a bullish outlook for the U.S. equity market, predicting high teens earnings growth and focusing on the consumer goods sector [1][5] - Wilson describes the market's path as "crystal clear," driven by a stabilizing Federal Reserve and legislative support that will rejuvenate the consumer sector [2][6] Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is identified as a top conviction pick for the year, expected to rebound after a "rolling recession" [2] - Wilson highlights favorable factors such as falling interest rates and fiscal stimulus that will unlock pent-up demand in the consumer goods sector [2][3] Group 3: Earnings and Federal Reserve Support - Wilson argues that the earnings picture is strengthening, forecasting earnings growth in the "high teens" as the market rally expands beyond the tech sector [5] - A key factor in this optimism is the Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including asset purchases to stabilize funding markets, which Wilson views as a significant support for investors [6] Group 4: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index has shown a performance of 9.62% over the last six months, while year-to-date performance is at -1.40% [4] - The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF has a one-year performance of 5.25%, indicating some resilience in the consumer staples segment [4] Group 5: General Market Trends - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is up 0.63%, and the Dow Jones is up 2.41%, while the Nasdaq 100 is down by 0.07% [9] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed lower recently, with SPY down 0.01% and QQQ down 0.60% [10]

Core Viewpoint - Underinvestment in the energy sector is a significant reason to invest in oil, with expectations of price recovery due to supply/demand imbalances and geopolitical factors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - The average forecast for oil prices is $58 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a supply/demand imbalance [1]. - Josef Schachter predicts crude oil will reach $80 per barrel this year, driven by demand from non-OECD countries and the transition to green energy requiring more fossil fuels [7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Kevin Muir suggests that the current geopolitical climate, particularly the American takeover of Venezuela, presents a buying opportunity for oil [2][3]. - Muir's previous advice to invest in gold miners has proven successful, with one ETF rising 157% over the past year, indicating potential for similar gains in oil investments [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cycle of oil prices typically begins with low prices leading to reduced investment, followed by a gradual rise as the market adjusts to the underinvestment, ultimately resulting in a price squeeze as short sellers are forced to cover their positions [4]. - Muir emphasizes that global growth is expected to surprise positively, suggesting that oil prices will likely follow the upward trend seen in other commodities like gold, silver, and copper [8].

Summary of Euro Area Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Euro area economy and its outlook for 2026, highlighting both cyclical improvements and structural challenges. Key Points Economic Growth Forecast - Euro area growth is forecasted at **1.3%** for 2026, with a slight increase to **1.4%** on a Q4/Q4 basis, up from **1.3%** last year, aligning with consensus expectations [3][6][34] Factors Driving Cyclical Improvement 1. **German Fiscal Stimulus**: - Germany's fiscal expansion is expected to provide a significant boost, with the deficit projected to rise to **3.7%** of GDP in 2026, contributing **0.5 percentage points** to growth [9][12] 2. **Diminished Global Trade Tensions**: - The negative impact from global trade tensions is anticipated to lessen, with a previous **0.4%** hit to real GDP from tariffs expected to fade [15][19] 3. **Robust Consumer Spending**: - Real household income growth is projected at **1.5%**, with consumption growth also expected at **1.5%** in 2026, supported by lower energy prices [19][44] Structural Headwinds - Despite cyclical improvements, significant structural challenges remain: - Increased competition from China's renewed export push is expected to negatively impact European trade, particularly affecting Germany (estimated **0.9%** hit to GDP) and Italy (estimated **0.6%**) [23][30] - High energy costs, underinvestment in high-tech sectors, regulatory burdens, and demographic shifts are identified as ongoing domestic challenges [27][30] Labour Market and Inflation - Unemployment rates are expected to remain near historic lows, with wage growth projected to slow to **2.9%** by the end of 2026, aligning with a medium-term inflation target of **2%** [37][41] - Core inflation is expected to dip slightly below **2%** by the end of 2026, influenced by a stronger Euro and lower energy prices [44][50] Monetary Policy Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain current rates in 2026, with potential cuts requiring a clear catalyst, such as a significant economic downturn or a pronounced inflation undershoot [48][51] - A return to rate hikes would depend on demand-driven inflationary pressures or significant shocks leading to deviations from inflation targets [55][56] Country-Specific Focus - **Germany**: Monitoring the quality of public spending and reform agenda is crucial for improving medium-term growth [62] - **France**: Political and fiscal risks remain, with a projected government deficit reduction from **5.4%** to **5.1%** of GDP in 2026 [66] - **Southern Europe**: Continued economic resilience is noted, with structural transformations in Spain, Portugal, and Greece [71] Policy Initiatives - EU policymakers have an opportunity to implement reforms that could enhance economic performance, focusing on reducing vulnerabilities and building a single market [74] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies and structural reforms across member states to sustain the cyclical recovery and address long-term challenges [4][61]