随着主要发达市场国债收益率走高，投资者正重新评估通胀风险及特朗普及贸易战背景下的全球增长前景。这表明，去年启动的、曾推动全球股 市创下历史新高的宽松周期可能正步入尾声，市场焦点已转向各国激增的公共债务和更为顽固的通胀压力。 全球长债收益率已重返2009年以来最高水平，这一显著转变标志着市场对各国央行放松货币政策周期即将终结的共识日益增强。 在美联储备受瞩目的政策会议召开前几小时，债市并未如期上涨。尽管市场普遍预计美联储将连续第三次降息，但投资者正基于对长期通胀、财 政赤字及未来货币政策独立性的担忧抛售债券，推动30年期美债收益率重回多月高位，10年期美债收益率亦徘徊在9月以来的最高水平。 市场的重新定价已波及全球，交易员目前押注欧洲央行几乎不再有降息空间，同时预计日本央行本月加息几成定局，澳大利亚央行明年将加息两 次。据彭博数据显示，衡量全球长期政府债券的一项指标已回升至16年高点，澳大利亚和欧洲多国的长债收益率近期均大幅飙升。 "失望交易"在全球蔓延 随着投资者逐渐意识到各大央行的降息周期可能即将结束，一场"失望交易"（disappointment trade）正在多个发达市场展开。PGIM Fixed I ...

RT plur daddy (@plur_daddy)I am viewing gold/silver as risk assets, just a flavor of risk asset with more downside protection in the case of gold. In an environment where we get a combination of liquidity/fiscal expansion, and tolerance inflation, think that leads to many people concluding they should own gold.In general think select commodities that flow into data centers are interesting because demand will keep going up and they are not as overowned as AI capex stocks.Stock indices will keep melting up an ...

Market Overview - U.S. and global markets experienced a bounce at the start of the week due to optimism surrounding trade, potential resolution of the government shutdown, and easing regional bank concerns [1] - Wall Street rally faced challenges early on Tuesday as corporate earnings reports were anticipated [5] Japan Market - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister contributed to a surge in the Nikkei stock benchmark, reaching record highs [2] - The yen continued to weaken despite speculation about Satsuki Katayama being considered for finance minister, who has previously advocated for a stronger currency [2] China Market - Chinese stocks saw their largest gain in six weeks, driven by U.S. President Trump's optimism regarding a fair trade deal with President Xi Jinping ahead of the November 1 tariff deadline [3] - The upcoming Communist Party meeting focused on a new five-year economic plan also positively influenced market sentiment [3] U.S. Government and Banking Sector - There is hope for an end to the ongoing government shutdown, which has reached 21 days, as White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett indicated it could conclude this week [4] - Regional bank concerns eased slightly as Zions Bancorp reported decent earnings despite a significant loss on two loans, resulting in a 2% increase in its stock during after-hours trading [4] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Wall Street stock futures declined slightly ahead of the corporate earnings season, with Netflix and major industrial and defense companies set to report [5] - A drop in crude oil prices to five-month lows contributed to softer U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, primarily due to the falling yen [5] Argentina's Economic Situation - Argentina's peso continued to weaken despite a $20 billion exchange-rate stabilization agreement with the U.S. Treasury, ahead of a key midterm election [6] - U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, are hesitant to lend the $20 billion to Argentina without guarantees or collateral [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Fiscal sustainability has gained increased attention from investors in the US, UK, and Japan, particularly regarding the US's persistent deficit and its impact on foreign demand for US assets [2][4] - The relationship between fiscal expansion and the Dollar is mixed, generally depending on the business cycle and monetary policy, but historically, greater US net issuance tends to be positive for the Dollar [4][5][21] - Concerns about fiscal sustainability and a declining appetite for US assets from foreign investors could lead to higher yields and a weaker Dollar, altering the historical relationship between fiscal expansion and currency strength [5][21] Summary by Sections Fiscal Risks and the Dollar - Investors are increasingly focused on fiscal sustainability, particularly in the context of the US's large and persistent deficit [2][4] - The effect of fiscal expansion on the Dollar varies, but on average, increased US net issuance is typically Dollar-positive due to structural foreign demand for Treasuries [4][5][14] Market Reactions - Pricing of US fiscal risks shows different implications across various foreign exchange (FX) pairs, with high-yielding currencies being more affected by steepening US yield curves [4][18] - A widening in US credit default swaps is often linked to underperformance in cyclical currencies [18][21] Historical Context - Historically, greater net issuance in the US has been associated with a stronger Dollar, but this relationship may not hold as foreign demand for US assets diminishes [5][14][21] - Other G4 economies do not exhibit the same positive relationship between net issuance and currency returns as seen in the US [10][11] Implications for Investors - Investors have accepted higher yields as compensation for holding US debt, but concerns about fiscal sustainability may now lead to a weaker Dollar as well [21] - The report suggests that the historical relationship between US issuance, foreign inflows, and the Dollar may begin to resemble that of other economies if current trends continue [14][21]