Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest overall fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the affected sectors [5][6][27]. Core Insights - The OBBBA is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits primarily through upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation, particularly benefiting sectors like technology, communication services, and healthcare [5][10][12]. - The fiscal impulse from the OBBBA is projected to add approximately 0.4 percentage points to real GDP in 2026, although this is not sufficient to offset drags from trade and immigration policies [27][45][57]. - The report identifies potential beneficiaries among companies with substantial R&D and capital expenditures, focusing on those with significant pre-tax earnings and meaningful cash taxes [5][24][25]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Implications - The OBBBA implies higher incremental deficits than previously anticipated, with a projected 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP, influenced by increased tariff revenues [6][12][59]. - The bill's provisions are expected to lead to front-loaded deficits and back-loaded surpluses, indicating a short-term fiscal impulse that may later turn into a fiscal drag [5][38][57]. Sectoral Impacts - Clean Tech: The final bill is viewed positively for most subsectors, alleviating investor concerns regarding the repeal of IRA tax credits [7]. - Consumer: Smaller cuts to SNAP in the final bill reduce headwinds for packaged foods, beverages, retail, and restaurants [7]. - Software: The reinstatement of upfront R&D expensing is likely to provide a cash flow tailwind for large-cap corporates [7][10]. Tax Provisions - Upfront R&D expensing allows companies to accelerate cash tax savings, particularly benefiting sectors like tech and healthcare [10][12]. - The reinstatement of 100% first-year bonus depreciation for qualified property and equipment is expected to positively impact capital-intensive sectors such as aerospace and defense, telecom, and energy [10][12]. Cash Flow and Earnings - The report emphasizes that the majority of OBBBA policies will impact cash flows rather than reported earnings, with significant cash tax savings anticipated in the near term [8][10][12]. - The cash tax rate is expected to potentially reach new lows due to the reinstated and expanded expensing provisions [9][12]. Deficit and Rates - The report notes that concerns regarding fiscal policy under the new administration have somewhat diminished, with the 10-year yield remaining below 4.50% [14][57]. - The OBBBA is projected to result in a lower fiscal deficit in 2025 compared to prior forecasts, while maintaining a broadly unchanged deficit forecast for 2026 [59][60].

Bitcoin Market Analysis - USG (美国政府) 积累比特币以缓解财政问题，对市场和比特币有利 [1] - USG (美国政府) 允许财政前景持续恶化，对个人不利，但对比特币有利 [1] - 行业建议购买比特币 [1]

Monetary Policy & Tariffs - The market initially anticipated a rate cut in July, but it's now less likely due to tariff uncertainty [2] - The Fed is likely to wait until August 1st to assess tariff rates and economic impact before potentially acting in September [3] - The speaker suggests that the "price shock" from tariffs is largely in the past, as businesses have had time to adjust [5][6] Economic Outlook - US demand is solid but sluggish, with GDP around 1% [2] - Fiscal policy is now neutral or stimulative, reducing recession odds [7] - Deficits and the 10-year Treasury yield are expected to remain elevated [8] Business & Market Impact - Companies are expected to adapt to low to mid-teens tariffs if the rates are clear [3] - Corporate earnings are expected to be resilient, supported by stimulus measures [8] - Accelerated depreciation, tax on tips, and tax on overtime should provide a tailwind for businesses [9] - Businesses are cautious due to uncertainty but relatively optimistic about the future [9]

U.S. Fiscal Situation & Debt Concerns - The U.S federal budget is on an unsustainable path, potentially leading to rapid financial instability if spending issues are not addressed [1] - America's borrowing levels are currently the same size as the entire economy and are expected to skyrocket [2] - There is a greater than 50% chance of experiencing a financial trauma related to the deficit or debt levels within three years if the issues are not addressed [11] - The U.S is expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on interest payments this year due to soaring debt and higher rates [24] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects net interest costs in 2025 to surpass spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and national defense [24] - The cost to service the U.S debt is expected to be 18% of total tax revenue this year, compared to less than 10% in 2022 [25] Potential Consequences & Risks - Unsustainable fiscal policy could lead to a collapse in fixed income and bond markets within 20 years [8][9] - The U.S may resort to printing money to cover its debt, potentially leading to inflation [10] - Rising borrowing costs could negatively affect the health and growth of the U.S economy [23][24] - Unchecked debt levels risk leaving a weaker economy to future generations [30] International Implications - International holdings of U.S treasuries were near a record $9 trillion in April [40] - China, while one of the largest foreign holders of U.S treasuries, has been steadily reducing its holdings [39][40] - Japan holds more than $1 trillion worth of U.S debt, the most of any foreign country [42]

UK Economic & Political Uncertainty - Keir Starmer's initial reluctance to support Rachel Reeves raises questions about internal party dynamics and potential leadership challenges [1][2] - Speculation suggests a possible change in Chancellor of the Exchequer, potentially impacting market confidence and government stability [3] - The government's backtracking on proposed welfare changes reveals a £5 billion fiscal hole, hindering economic growth and tax cut promises [5] Market Reaction & Fiscal Policy - The UK market faces potential instability, reminiscent of the "Liz Truss" era, with concerns over unfunded tax cuts and bond market reactions [4][6] - Rachel Reeves' credibility with the bond market is crucial; her departure could trigger increased speculation and market volatility [7][8] - The ability to grow the UK economy and avoid tax increases is uncertain, given the government's recent policy setbacks [5][6] Budget & Economic Outlook - The upcoming budget, to be presented by either Rachel Reeves or a new Chancellor, faces significant challenges in achieving economic growth without raising taxes [6] - Failure to pass proposed changes raises concerns about the government's ability to manage the economy and fulfill its promises [5][6] - The UK is in a "waiting period," with close attention on key figures and their potential impact on economic policy [4][5]

It is time now for money power politics and this evening we are talking about our financial responsibility as a country. I want to level set here. This has been a problem for the United States for many years.Our debt has exploded over the last two decades under the leadership of both parties. But that makes it even more important to take a hard look at what this Republican bill would do to make an already bad situation even worse. As the New York Times puts it, this is one of the most expensive pieces of le ...

By: Janet Henry and James Pomeroy Economics Global www.research.hsbc.com Q3 2025 Global Economics Uneven ground Frontloading ahead of US tariffs lifted global growth in Q1 but more US tariffs loom… …while complex US trade and fiscal negotiations are ongoing, and major conflicts are still under way Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Economics ● Global Q3 2025 Execut ...

RT apewood (@apewoodx)2020 - 2021:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy brrreasy fiscal + easy monetary policy = perfect storm2022 - 2024:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy tight (fed hiking, flipped in 2022 and game over bubble valuations)- we had glimpse into fed in cutting mode in late 2024 but they quickly flipped back hawkish early 2025easy fiscal + tight monetary policy = not the best conditionsEarly 2025:- fiscal printer - people believed the govt was going to balance the budget (tighter fiscal) ...

The UK government has been forced to U-turn yet again on an unpopular policy, this time by its own members. Given all the talk of fiscal black holes less than a year ago, how will the chancellor make the sums add up now? https://t.co/B0tDoKXoL4 ...

ab 17 June 2025 Global Research Global Economics & Strategy Global Economic and Market Outlook 2025-26 (select slides) Economics Global Arend Kapteyn Economist arend.kapteyn@ubs.com +44-20-7567 0531 This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 46. Tariff uncertainty is driving the outlook The Court of International Trade has halted 75% of Trump's tariffs (those ...