J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 19 December 2025 FX Markets Weekly Thoughts from the road Outlook: We close the publishing cycle for the year by discussing the most interesting questions from our year-ahead outlook discussions. There was no pushback to the bearish dollar view, but lots of introspection on capital inflows into the US, the dollar smile, Fed independence concerns and US fiscal pre-midterms. FX carry is well subscribed to and discussions was on vol generators and risk hedges instead. DM ...

Company Announcement - Societe Generale, a French multinational bank & financial services company founded in 1864, is tokenizing both USD and EUR [1] Blockchain & Cryptocurrency - Societe Generale chose Solana, a meme coin chain, for tokenizing USD and EUR [1]

December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America December FOMC Reaction: Well Positioned to Wait and See How the Economy Evolves The Fed reduced the funds rate by 25bp but signaled that future adjustments will be more data dependent, as we expected. We continue to expect further cuts in January and April, but if the labor market stabilizes, then future cuts may not come until inflation decelerates. Key expectations | M December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT December FOMC Reaction: | Chief US E ...

December 8, 2025 01:07 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Fed in Focus: What's Next for Policy and Macro Markets? December 8, 2025 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Michael Gapen – Chief US Economist Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist Matthew Hornbach – Global Head of Macro Strategy | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC James Lord – Global Head of FX/EM Strategy | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Morgan Stanley does ...

RT MEXC_Listings (@MEXC_Listings)New 0 fee $USDC spot trading pairs added:🔵 $GIGGLE/USDC @GiggleFundBSC , $ZK/USDC @zksync and $EUR/USDC🔵 Trading starts: Dec 3, 2025, 08:00 (UTC)Details: https://t.co/JWgfrNVYn9 https://t.co/JW4seWM2Ua ...

Summary of Global FX Outlook 2026 Company and Industry - **Company**: J.P. Morgan - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Key Points and Arguments 1. FX Outlook for 2026 - The outlook is bearish on the dollar in the first half of 2026 due to Fed asymmetries, twin deficits, and global recovery, but weakness is constrained by US resiliency [6][37][38] - Expected currency levels include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6] 2. Drivers of FX Returns in 2025 - DM FX returns were influenced by external and fiscal balances, while global FX/EM returns were primarily driven by carry [5][8] - Liberation Day marked a significant weakening of the dollar, leading to a pro-risk environment characterized by strong performance in global/EM carry trades [5][10] 3. Lessons from 2025 - The dollar's strength was short-lived, with key risks materializing earlier than expected, leading to a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment [4][10] - Fiscal differentiation played a crucial role, with the Euro's rise linked to positive German fiscal developments [14] 4. Macro Landscape for 2026 - The macro environment is characterized by synchronized central bank inactivity, ongoing fiscal policy focus, and the impact of AI adoption [6][12] - The US policy mix remains a source of FX risk, with a focus on fiscal policy rather than tariffs [6][12] 5. AI and Market Dynamics - AI is expected to influence markets through financial and macro channels, potentially supporting US growth but also reviving de-dollarization discussions [29] - The macro effects of AI are still developing, with job displacement not yet materializing significantly in labor market data [29] 6. Fiscal Policy and Tariff Volatility - Fiscal policy surprises are anticipated, particularly in the US, with potential for stimulus surprises due to mid-term elections [28] - Tariff volatility is expected to decrease in 2026, although some tactical volatility may arise from IEEPA rulings [60][67] 7. Dollar's Carry Appeal - The dollar's nominal carry appeal remains high despite Fed easing, influencing asset owners' FX hedging decisions [50] - The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by various macro scenarios, including potential Fed hikes in 2027 [49][50] 8. Risks and Scenarios for the Dollar - The dollar could weaken if US growth moderates sharply or if the Fed's reaction function turns dovish amid political pressures [48][39] - Conversely, a stronger US growth scenario could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar [48][58] 9. Conclusion on FX Trends - The FX landscape heading into 2026 is marked by lower dispersion across style factors, indicating less conviction on differentiating currency returns [30] - High-yielding currencies are expected to perform better in a procyclical growth environment, while low-yielders may lag [6][37] Other Important Content - The relationship between equities and FX is complex, with significant implications for the AI equity-USD link in the upcoming year [15] - The evolving dollar smile indicates that US-RoW relative cyclical dynamics are becoming more influential on the dollar's performance [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and the **cross-border capital flows**, with a focus on the **USD** and **EUR** currencies. Key Takeaways 1. **USD Investor Demand** - The demand for USD by Bank of America (BofA) investors in the past month was the strongest since June 2024, driven mainly by asset managers. - Asset managers' USD buying last week was the largest since July, although they remain net short on dollars, indicating a light position overall [1][5][6]. 2. **EUR Supply Dynamics** - There was a significant supply of EUR last week, the strongest since May, primarily driven by corporates. - All BofA client types, except hedge funds, were net sellers of EUR, suggesting a souring sentiment towards the currency [6][10]. 3. **Emerging Market (EM) FX Flows** - EM FX flows turned negative across all regions, indicating a moderating sentiment. - Notable selling was observed in currencies such as SGD, ZAR, BRL, and to some extent, MXN [7][9]. 4. **Investor Positioning** - The positioning of BofA investors in G10 currencies as of October 31, 2025, shows varied sentiment across different currencies, with asset managers showing a slight long position in EM currencies [24][27]. - The aggregate positioning for USD was noted to be negative, while positioning for AUD and NZD showed some positive trends [16][24]. 5. **Options and Futures Flows** - The snapshot of FX options and futures flows indicates mixed sentiment, with some currencies like JPY and GBP showing negative positioning, while others like AUD and NZD had positive flows [14][33]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment in the FX market appears to be cautious, with a notable shift in positioning among asset managers and hedge funds, reflecting broader market uncertainties [4][6][24]. - **Potential Risks** - The report highlights potential risks associated with the current positioning and market dynamics, suggesting that investors should be aware of the volatility and changing trends in the FX market [4][5]. - **Data Sources** - The analysis is based on proprietary data from BofA Securities, including flow data, positioning data, and market sentiment surveys, providing a comprehensive view of the current market landscape [9][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the dynamics of the FX market, investor behavior, and emerging trends that could influence future investment strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its associated risks, particularly in relation to global economic conditions and monetary policy dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakening Expectations**: The expectation is for the USD to weaken over the next year, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, due to falling US real yields and narrowing growth differentials with the rest of the world [8][11][12] 2. **Growth Convergence**: US growth is projected to slow to approximately **1.3% in 2026**, converging with growth rates abroad, which is consistent with the "dollar smile" framework [27][28] 3. **Policy Risks**: The narrowing of the USD's discount to yield-implied fair value is anticipated, with expectations that it may re-widen due to ongoing trade policy and Federal Reserve independence risks [8][11][40] 4. **Fiscal Concerns Abroad**: Easing fiscal concerns in countries like Japan, the UK, and France are expected to reduce the positive premium on the USD, contributing to its decline [8][50][52] 5. **Current USD Positioning**: USD positioning is currently slightly long, indicating a shift from previous short positions, which reduces the risk of significant price swings [12][67] Additional Important Insights 1. **Interest Rate Forecasts**: The forecast indicates that **10-year TIPS yields** will decline to **1.25%** by mid-2026 and further to **0.9%** by the end of next year, contributing to a bearish environment for the USD [14][15] 2. **Trade Recommendations**: Recommendations include maintaining short positions on USD against currencies such as EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, and AUD, with specific target prices provided for each currency pair [16][69] 3. **Risks to USD Outlook**: Upside risks to the USD could arise from stronger-than-expected US growth or a downturn in sentiment regarding investment opportunities outside the US [11][34][36] 4. **Yield Differential Dynamics**: The narrowing of US-RoW rate differentials is expected, with **2-year US yields** projected to decline to **2.0%** by next year, while **2-year German yields** are expected to decrease to **1.6%**, significantly compressing the spread [20][21] 5. **Fiscal Sustainability**: Concerns about fiscal sustainability in Japan and the UK are expected to ease, which may further weigh on the USD as these countries stabilize their fiscal positions [50][52][61] Conclusion The conference call presents a comprehensive analysis of the USD's outlook, emphasizing the interplay between interest rates, growth differentials, and fiscal policies. The overall sentiment leans towards a bearish outlook for the USD, with specific trade strategies recommended to capitalize on anticipated currency movements.

More ways to power your perps 🔋You can now open positions with USD, EUR, CHF, $USDT, and $USDCGet started in the Kraken app ⤵️https://t.co/kNLzHGj5n7Available in select countries. https://t.co/dNuDUETKBd ...

RT Harp (@GarrettHarper_)If you're building on @solana and you have cash on your balance sheet, it's time to open your @tryaltitude account.- Receive and send USD/EUR bank transfers.- 5.00% APY with Altitude Earn.- Email sign in and full gas abstraction.- Team management and permissions.- A beautiful UX that puts products to shame.- More cash management tools coming (e.g. corporate cards).Powered by @USDC and EURC. ...