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Gibson: The one thing markets do not like is uncertainty
CNBC Television· 2025-10-02 12:21
All right, Courtney, we got to ask you. I know the S&P and the NASDAQ finished at record highs yesterday, but are there market implications with this shutdown in either the equity market or the bond market. >> Well, first of all, I think as we all know, the one thing that the markets do not like is uncertainty.Now, that being said, generally speaking, what you'll see is a rally in the bond market, right. And I think we're seeing a little bit of that on the short end of the curve, and the long end of the cur ...
BofA sees ‘path to a 5% mortgage rate’ if the Fed pulls off these 2 things
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 17:14
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America’s mortgage-backed securities research team is analyzing the potential for U.S. mortgage rates to decrease, influenced by Federal Reserve actions and macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. Mortgage Rate Projections - The MBS team believes a path to a 5% mortgage rate exists if the Federal Reserve implements quantitative easing in mortgage-backed securities and aggressive yield-curve control, reducing 10-year Treasury yields to 3.00%-3.25% [2]. - The baseline expectation is for mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.25%, a slight decline from the current average of approximately 6.35%, which has improved from 6.9% recently [3]. Market Reactions and Affordability - Despite Wall Street's optimism regarding potential rate cuts, even a reduction to 5% may not significantly alleviate the affordability challenges faced by American homebuyers [4]. - Housing stocks have seen a rise in anticipation of rate cuts, with companies like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup being highlighted; however, the underlying demand remains sluggish despite lower rates and builder incentives [6]. Economic Scenarios - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a spike in unemployment leading to a flight to safety in financial markets, which could lower mortgage rates, or a severe recession prompting the Fed to cut rates and possibly resume purchasing mortgage-backed securities [5].
'Fast Money' traders talk how to invest as tensions in the Middle East ramp up
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 21:38
Market Impact of Geopolitical Events - Oil price spikes due to geopolitical events are typically short-lived, unless a major disruption like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz occurs [2] - Protracted geopolitical conflicts could lead to lower yields due to a flight to quality and a stronger dollar, but are generally not market-friendly [3] - A "flight to safety" is more accurate than a "flight to quality" in the current environment, with US Treasuries and the US dollar being the beneficiaries [4] - Market participants were previously concerned about a weak dollar and higher 10-year yields [5] Investment Opportunities - Past geopolitical events have often presented buying opportunities, depending on the market discount offered [6] - The current situation is viewed as a potential buying opportunity, barring a major escalation like World War II [6] - Companies involved in drone warfare and arsenal buildup, such as Northrup Grumman (NOC) and Kratos, may present investment opportunities [7][8] - The market dip is considered a buying opportunity [10][11] Market Indicators - The 10-year yield has decreased from 445 basis points to 433 basis points [5] - The VIX is not expected to remain at its current level of 21, and is likely to either increase significantly or gradually decline [10] - The dollar has only increased by a small amount over the last few trading days [5]