16 July 2025 | 6:07AM HKT Navigating China Internet: eCommerce tracker Latest on the food delivery & on-demand eCommerce landscape; June online retail +5% yoy In our latest eCommerce tracker, we refresh our Alibaba and JD estimates (cutting 2025E-27E earnings by -1% to -10%) given the higher-than-expected intensity of food delivery & on-demand competition in the near-term, as the 'everyday app' battle by eCommerce players continues. The latest on-demand retail & food delivery industry daily order volumes pe ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition among major instant retail platforms, including Meituan, JD, and Taobao Flash Sale, has intensified with significant subsidies and promotional activities, leading to a surge in consumer orders and brand performance in the food and beverage sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Taobao Flash Sale - Taobao Flash Sale announced a direct subsidy of 50 billion yuan to consumers and merchants over 12 months, resulting in a record peak for 4,124 restaurant brands and a doubling of orders for 2,318 non-food categories [1]. - On July 5, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me reported over 80 million daily orders, with non-food orders exceeding 13 million and daily active users surpassing 200 million [1]. - Good Quality Store (603719.SH) reported a doubling of overall order volume since the launch of the 50 billion subsidy, with some locations seeing over 200% growth in orders [1]. Group 2: JD's Response - JD launched the "Double Hundred Plan" on July 8, committing over 10 billion yuan to support brands in achieving sales of over 1 million, with a focus on traffic support, marketing subsidies, and premium service [2]. - As of July 8, nearly 200 restaurant brands on JD's platform have achieved sales exceeding 1 million, with several brands like Luckin Coffee and Heytea reaching sales of over 100 million [2]. Group 3: Meituan's Strategy - Following Taobao Flash Sale's subsidy announcement, Meituan initiated large-scale red envelope promotions, leading to a historic peak in user orders and causing temporary service disruptions [3]. - By July 5, Meituan's daily orders exceeded 120 million, with over 100 million of those being food orders [3]. Group 4: Market Reaction - On July 7, following the intense competition among the three major food delivery platforms, stocks of several food brands, including Mixue Group and Gu Ming, saw a significant increase, although the upward trend did not sustain [4].

7月8日，京东表示，截至当日，京东外卖上线4个月，已有近200个餐饮品牌在京东外卖销量破百万，第 三方调研机构数据显示品质外卖市场京东以45%份额居行业第一。同时京东外卖宣布正式启动"双百计 划"，投入超百亿元，真金白银扶持更多品类标杆品牌销量破百万。 图片来源：视觉中国 当美国科技企业凭借AI和太空探索等前沿创新不断推高市值时，中国的互联网巨头却再次深陷外卖补 贴的"内卷泥潭"，股价也集体进入震荡下跌模式。 7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布启动规模高达500亿元的补贴计划，当日订单即出现显著增长。5日至6日，美团 和阿里突然开战，分别发放外卖大额券，包括"满25减21""满25减20"等多张无门槛的外卖券，美团还联 合不同奶茶饮品品牌推出了"0元喝奶茶"的平台福利活动，"美团崩了"也一度登上热搜。5日夜间，美团 先行发布战报，称截至当日22时54分，美团即时零售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单。淘宝闪购则在7日宣 布，7月5日的日订单数超8000万，其中非餐饮订单超1300万，淘宝闪购日活跃用户超2亿。 在这最新一轮的攻防战中，自今年2月起强势进军餐饮外卖业务的"搅局者"京东却显得相对沉寂，很大 程度上或许源于其骑手资源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, JD, Alibaba, Guming, Mixue, and Yum China, with specific target prices set for each company [19][24][25][27][28][36]. Core Insights - The food delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in daily order volumes, reaching approximately 120 million, driven by platform subsidies and evolving consumer behavior [13][16]. - Competitive strategies among food delivery platforms have intensified, particularly between Meituan, JD, and Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me, with each platform adopting aggressive subsidy strategies to capture market share [7][9][12]. - Long-term market share projections indicate Meituan will hold a dominant position with 60-65% of the GTV market share, followed by Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me at 25-28% and JD at 10-15% [13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has expanded due to increased on-demand consumption, with daily orders growing from around 80 million to 120 million, including 30 million incremental orders attributed to subsidies [13][16]. - The expert anticipates that a portion of the new orders, particularly meal orders, may persist even after subsidies normalize [13]. Competitive Strategies - Meituan has focused on maintaining order volume and market share through differentiated offerings and targeted subsidies, particularly in higher-tier cities [7][19]. - JD has ramped up its order volume to 25 million daily orders, leveraging its delivery network and aggressive subsidy strategies [12][24]. - Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me has initiated campaigns to attract consumers, benefiting from traffic on the Taobao platform [9][19]. Long-term Projections - The expert presented various long-term market share scenarios, projecting Meituan's market share to remain robust while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me will capture smaller shares [13][19]. - The expert expects JD's loss per order to peak in Q2 2025, with gradual improvements anticipated by Q4 2025 [13].

据艾瑞最新数据，京东外卖日均订单量已突破2500万单，占据全国外卖市场超31%的份额，在品质外卖 细分领域约有45%的市场占有率，与美团、饿了么共同构建起"三足鼎立"的行业新格局。另据艾瑞咨 询，目前中国外卖市场日均订单量达8000-9000万单。 ...

Core Insights - Uber Technologies is thriving due to the increasing costs and hassles associated with car ownership, while Carvana offers an affordable alternative for owning a vehicle [1][2] - Despite both companies showing growth, Uber is positioned to benefit from a long-term trend away from car ownership, while Carvana's growth may be more cyclical [10][18] Company Comparisons - Uber controls approximately 75% of the U.S. ride-hailing market and reported $44 billion in revenue for the last year, with an 18% year-over-year growth [3][4] - Carvana reported $13.7 billion in revenue for 2024, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase, and achieved a net income of $404 million [5][6] - Uber's revenue growth is expected to continue, while Carvana's performance may be influenced by cyclical trends in the used car market [8][18] Market Trends - A Deloitte survey indicates that 44% of U.S. residents under 35 are considering giving up car ownership, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior [10] - The global ride-hailing market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 11% through 2033, benefiting Uber [11] - The food delivery industry is also expected to grow at an annualized pace of 17%, presenting additional opportunities for Uber [12] Financial Performance - Carvana's stock has increased by over 200% in the past year, while Uber's shares have not shown significant progress since March of the previous year [7] - Carvana's shares are currently trading 14% above analysts' consensus price, whereas Uber's stock is 16% below the average price target of $97.39 [19] Challenges and Opportunities - Carvana faces challenges due to a lack of inventory in the used car market, which may impact its ability to meet consumer demand [15] - Uber benefits from urban congestion and high car prices, which are likely to sustain demand for ride-hailing services [18] - Carvana's growth potential is limited as it currently accounts for only about 1% of the used car market [16]

转自：草原云 进入5月份，呼和浩特市消费市场活力涌动，外卖平台竞争持续升温。京东、美团、饿了么等头部企业 通过差异化策略抢占市场份额，淘宝闪购作为新晋平台高调入局，叠加政府消费补贴与商家让利，首府 市民成为最大受益群体。 呼和浩特市商务局推出"乐享消费·惠购青城"系列活动，联合美团平台发放"满100减30"等消费券，与平 台补贴叠加使用形成合力，覆盖多个本土餐饮品牌。多重优惠叠加下，市民可享受"个位数购奶茶""半 价吃大餐"等实惠。 内蒙古日报·草原云记者：郑学良 实习生：贾思敏 新闻编辑：郭娜 京东外卖以"全年免佣金"政策切入本地市场，吸引白大草原馅饼、德顺源等本土知名餐饮品牌及多家连 锁餐饮企业入驻。平台通过降低商家运营成本，使部分套餐价格较其他平台更为优惠。市民牛先生表 示："同样的套餐，京东用券后比堂食还便宜5元，配送费全免，确实划算。" 美团外卖在呼和浩特等全国百余城市推行安全分考核机制，骑手通过规范驾驶行为积累安全分，积分与 奖金、福利挂钩。"五一"期间，安全分排名全市前100名的骑手可额外获得510元现金奖励。另外，美团 外卖包装新增"安全分90+骑手派送"的醒目标签，配送服务更加规范，消费者体 ...

30 April 2025 | 6:31AM HKT Navigating China Internet Assessing the state of play with JD's entry into food delivery; scenarios and implications for Meituan, JD With JD's faster-than-expected food delivery ramp-up to 1/6 of Meituan's daily orders within two months of operations and the significant 20% share price declines of both Meituan and JD since April (vs. HSTECH of -9%), we lay out three eventual scenarios and assess the potential impacts to Meituan and JD: Scenario 1) JD pulls back subsidies and event ...

When it comes to ride-sharing in the U.S., there are only two choices for consumers and investors: Uber (UBER 0.24%) and Lyft (LYFT 2.99%).The two companies have been rivals since their early days, and while Uber has long been the market leader, Lyft has been a steady innovator in the space and held its own despite predictions that it would fall by the wayside.Investors interested in the ride-sharing industry are likely to choose one or even both of these companies, as they're exposed to the same kind of op ...