Joining us now is Paul McCully, former chief economist at PIMCO, currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown's Mcdana School of Business. Thank you both for being here for uh for commenting. Um I want to get your perspective, Paul, because Steve just outlined his survey where he said, I believe the numbers, and correct me if I'm wrong, Steve, 66% said the Fed should cut, but 92% believe they will cut.Y >> so that I mean that's a pretty big distinction. And how should we how should we kind of distill that. ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is set to report its quarterly earnings, with traders expecting a 6% price movement in either direction by the end of the week, indicating potential volatility around the earnings announcement [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Earnings History - Nvidia's stock has increased nearly 25% over the past month, recovering from earlier losses and showing a 1% gain year-to-date, trading at $135.50 as of May 28 [2] - Despite consistently beating Wall Street expectations for the last nine quarters, Nvidia has not experienced a post-earnings rally in a year, with the last significant jump occurring in May 2024 [2][4] - The stock's performance following earnings reports has been mixed, with notable fluctuations including a 14% increase in February 2023 and an 8.5% decrease in February 2025, despite strong earnings [4][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Stock Reaction - Strong earnings alone do not guarantee a positive stock reaction; factors such as soft guidance or broader market conditions can lead to selloffs even after beating estimates [6][7] - Forward guidance is crucial for investor sentiment, as seen in February 2025 when Nvidia's stock fell despite beating revenue and earnings expectations due to concerns over export restrictions to China [7] - The macroeconomic environment, including inflation and market volatility, can overshadow strong earnings results, particularly for high-growth companies like Nvidia [8] Group 3: Market Expectations and Geopolitical Sensitivity - High investor expectations can lead to selloffs even after positive earnings reports, as the market may react negatively if results do not exceed lofty anticipations [9] - Nvidia's reliance on advanced chip exports and exposure to China makes it particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global market conditions [9]