BOJ Rate Hike to 0.75% Leaves Bitcoin Steady. Photo by BeInCrypto The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19. It marks its highest level in nearly 30 years, reinforcing the country’s gradual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy. Yet despite the historic shift and warnings of a global liquidity squeeze, Bitcoin showed little reaction, rising just under 1% and holding in the $87,000 range. BOJ Just Raised Interest Rates Another 25 Basis Points – Why ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the near future, aligning with market expectations and macroeconomic conditions [2][5][11]. Macroeconomic Perspective - There has been a softening in the labor market, indicating downside risks, which suggests that the Fed should adopt a neutral stance rather than a restrictive one [4]. - The Treasury and silver markets have already priced in a 3% policy rate, necessitating the Fed to validate this expectation to maintain easier financial conditions [5]. Interest Rate Strategy - The Fed should implement a gradual approach to rate cuts, potentially reducing rates by 25 basis points at each of the next three or four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings [8][9]. - A steady approach is preferred to avoid creating negative market psychology or exacerbating bubble risks [9]. Inflation Concerns - There is a belief that the effects of tariffs on inflation have not fully materialized, with about 50% of respondents in a survey acknowledging this [10]. - The potential for inflation to arise from corporations passing on costs to consumers is acknowledged, but the focus is on the downside risks to economic activity, particularly consumer spending among lower-income groups [14].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is set to report its quarterly earnings, with traders expecting a 6% price movement in either direction by the end of the week, indicating potential volatility around the earnings announcement [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Earnings History - Nvidia's stock has increased nearly 25% over the past month, recovering from earlier losses and showing a 1% gain year-to-date, trading at $135.50 as of May 28 [2] - Despite consistently beating Wall Street expectations for the last nine quarters, Nvidia has not experienced a post-earnings rally in a year, with the last significant jump occurring in May 2024 [2][4] - The stock's performance following earnings reports has been mixed, with notable fluctuations including a 14% increase in February 2023 and an 8.5% decrease in February 2025, despite strong earnings [4][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Stock Reaction - Strong earnings alone do not guarantee a positive stock reaction; factors such as soft guidance or broader market conditions can lead to selloffs even after beating estimates [6][7] - Forward guidance is crucial for investor sentiment, as seen in February 2025 when Nvidia's stock fell despite beating revenue and earnings expectations due to concerns over export restrictions to China [7] - The macroeconomic environment, including inflation and market volatility, can overshadow strong earnings results, particularly for high-growth companies like Nvidia [8] Group 3: Market Expectations and Geopolitical Sensitivity - High investor expectations can lead to selloffs even after positive earnings reports, as the market may react negatively if results do not exceed lofty anticipations [9] - Nvidia's reliance on advanced chip exports and exposure to China makes it particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global market conditions [9]