野村证券：中国两会 —— 财政方案亮点凸显更大力度聚焦提振投资 今日上午，李强总理在全国人民代表大会上作 2026 年政府工作报告，报告内容基本符合我们的预期，核心政策 目标与财政预算数值均无重大意外。 如预期所示，GDP 增长目标从过去三年的 **"5% 左右"下调至"4.5%-5.0%"区间，官方财政赤字率目标维持在 GDP 的 4.0% 不变（该比例于 2025 年从长期沿用的 3.0% 上 野村证券：中国两会 —— 财政方案亮点凸显更大力度聚焦提振投资 今日上午，李强总理在全国人民代表大会上作 2026 年政府工作报告，报告内容基本符合我们的预期，核心政策 目标与财政预算数值均无重大意外。 如预期所示，GDP 增长目标从过去三年的 **"5% 左右"下调至"4.5%-5.0%"区间，官方财政赤字率目标维持在 GDP 的 4.0% 不变（该比例于 2025 年从长期沿用的 3.0% 上调）。 不过，政府新增批复 8000 亿元"新型融资政策工具"** 额度，这一工具本质上是政策性银行通过放贷助力提振投 资，而 2025 年 9 月曾专门划拨 5000 亿元用于该工具。 在其他重点支出领域，消费以旧换新补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government work report for 2026 emphasizes a flexible GDP growth target of "4.5%-5%" to allow for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform, reflecting a focus on quality over quantity in economic growth [2][3][4]. Economic Growth Target - The GDP growth target adjustment is seen as a strategic choice to provide space for structural adjustments and risk management, rather than a simple reduction in growth expectations [2][3]. - The target aligns with China's long-term growth potential, balancing quality improvements with reasonable growth rates [2][3]. - The target also aims to support medium to long-term development, with an average growth rate of around 4.2% needed to double the economy by 2035 [3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report proposes a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate of around 4% and a budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase [5]. - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [5][6]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized, with fiscal policy aimed at stimulating demand and monetary policy focused on cost reduction [6][7]. Consumer Market Focus - The report prioritizes building a strong domestic market, emphasizing the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth [8][9]. - Specific measures include 250 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer upgrades and 800 billion yuan for infrastructure projects, indicating a shift towards a more systematic approach to expanding domestic demand [8][9]. - The focus on consumer spending is expected to enhance consumer confidence and drive sustainable growth [9]. Technological Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, aiming to foster new growth drivers and support the digital transformation of industries [11][12]. - Specific initiatives include promoting artificial intelligence and establishing a robust financial support system for innovation [11][12]. - The emphasis on integrating technology with industry aims to enhance productivity and competitiveness in the global market [12]. Capital Market Reforms - The report outlines plans for deepening capital market reforms, focusing on balancing investment and exit mechanisms while enhancing investor protection [13][14]. - The shift in focus from stabilizing the market to building a sustainable capital market framework is noted, with an emphasis on long-term capital inflows [14][15]. - The report aims to improve the investment environment and promote direct financing to support the real economy [14][15].