Group 1 - Eli Lilly's stock has experienced a decline of over 8% in the past month and nearly 5% in the last five days, but JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott remains optimistic about the company's prospects [1] - Zepbound continues to lead the GLP-1 obesity category, with strong prescription growth expected to position Eli Lilly for guidance increases throughout 2025 [2][3] - Despite a formulary change at CVS affecting approximately 200,000 patients, Eli Lilly's market share remains robust at around 70-75% of new patients, indicating resilience against potential impacts [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan anticipates a surge of 1.2 million prescriptions for Zepbound in the second quarter, highlighting the drug's strong market performance [4] - Orforglipron, Eli Lilly's small-molecule oral GLP-1, is expected to generate significant interest with Phase 3 obesity data anticipated in the third quarter and a launch targeted for mid-2026 [4] - The incretin franchise, including Zepbound and Orforglipron, could achieve sales of $79 billion by 2030, driven by easing pricing pressures and improved insurance coverage [5] Group 3 - Eli Lilly's stock decline is viewed as a buying opportunity, with a valuation of approximately 34x/25x conservative EPS estimates for 2025/2026, suggesting an attractive entry point [6] - The company is managing tariff risks by shifting API production to the U.S. and building inventory buffers, indicating proactive risk management strategies [7] - While Zepbound is currently a key product, Orforglipron is expected to play a significant role in future growth and market performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Roche has entered a $5.3 billion deal with Zealand Pharma to develop a new obesity treatment, petrelintide, aiming to compete in the growing obesity drug market dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [1][2]. Company Developments - The Roche-Zealand partnership will involve co-development and co-commercialization of petrelintide, with Zealand receiving $1.65 billion upfront and potential milestone payments up to $5.3 billion based on trial outcomes and sales [6][7]. - Zealand Pharma's stock surged by 38% on the announcement day, while Roche's shares increased by approximately 4% [7]. Product Insights - Petrelintide is an amylin analog, a new class of weight loss treatment that may offer comparable weight reduction to GLP-1 drugs but with better tolerability and preservation of lean muscle [3][4]. - Analysts project that petrelintide could achieve a 15-20% weight loss in phase 3 trials as a monotherapy, with Zealand calling it a potential "future backbone therapy" for weight management [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Roche's deal positioning it against established players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, who are also advancing their own obesity treatments [15][16]. - Zealand's CEO indicated that the partnership with Roche could accelerate the timeline for bringing petrelintide to market, potentially ahead of competitors [14][17]. Strategic Fit - The collaboration was driven by a strong scientific and cultural alignment between Roche and Zealand, with both companies emphasizing the importance of a true partnership in the development process [12][9]. - Roche has been actively expanding its obesity treatment portfolio, including the acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics to enhance its capabilities in this area [10][11].