【解剖大盘】 这两天市场的氛围都不错，美股也在涨，A股指数也很强，今天港股继续往上冲，不过尾市因为银行股 的反水而回撤了不少，收盘涨0.46%。 对于关税这块，市场也不是特别感冒了，因为结果都是不断推迟或是修改。7月11日，据媒体报道，美 国总统特朗普计划征收的50%铜进口关税将扩展至半成品领域，涵盖电网、军工和数据中心所需的关键 材料。据知情人士透露，关税范围将包括铜线、铜板、铜管等半成品。铜的抢运基本告一段落，因为时 间不够了，但其它金属如铝这些还是很强，昨日提到的中国铝业(02600)涨近4%，更猛的是中铝国际 (02068)涨超15%。 当地时间7月11日，在马来西亚吉隆坡出席东盟外长会期间，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅会见 美国国务卿鲁比奥。这是自今年1月美国总统特朗普二次上任以来，中美外长首度面对面会谈。估计也 是摸底的阶段，为接下来的元首会谈定个基调。反正我们的稀土这个有力的武器不会轻易松口，国内稀 土双巨头北方稀土、包钢股份双双公告提价，虽然提的不多，但传递的信号很重要。金力永磁(06680) 涨3.65%。 高盛又在积极唱多，当地时间周五，高盛集团策略师上调了对亚洲股市的预期，理由是宏观 ...

Company Strategy & Market Opportunity - Lilly aims to provide freedom from diabetes, eliminate serious health issues caused by obesity, and reduce cardiovascular deaths[10] - The company estimates a significant addressable market of over 170 million patients by 2030 for obesity and related conditions[13] - Outside of the US, the addressable market is expected to be approximately 1 billion patients[15] Orforglipron Development Program - Orforglipron, a GLP-1 small molecule, has a broad development plan including studies for Type 2 Diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea[20] - In the ACHIEVE-1 trial, all three doses of orforglipron achieved superiority versus placebo in reducing HbA1c levels in patients with Type 2 Diabetes[27] - ACHIEVE-1 trial data showed significant reductions in HbA1c observed as early as 4 weeks, with approximately 3/4 of patients achieving an ADA HbA1c target of less than 7%, and 2/3 reaching HbA1c ≤6.5%[27] - ACHIEVE-1 trial also demonstrated dose-dependent reduction in body weight, with approximately 2/3 of patients achieving ≥5% weight reduction and approximately 1/3 achieving ≥10% weight reduction[30] - Topline results for ATTAIN-1, an orforglipron trial in obesity, are expected in Q3 2025[39] Retatrutide Development Program - Retatrutide is undergoing global development with the TRIUMPH program for obesity and related complications, and the TRANSCEND program for Type 2 Diabetes[41] - Topline results for TRIUMPH-4, a retatrutide trial in knee osteoarthritis pain and overweight or obesity, are expected in Q4 2025[48] Tirzepatide & Early Phase Pipeline - The SURPASS-CVOT trial is designed to evaluate tirzepatide against dulaglutide in patients with established cardiovascular disease[51] - Eloralintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, showed weight loss up to 11.3% in Phase 1 trials and is well-tolerated with less than 10% incidence of GI side effects[60]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant transformation in China's innovative drug sector, highlighting the emergence of a "DeepSeek" moment driven by improved recognition of the technology attributes of innovative drugs and a stabilizing policy environment [1][55][57]. Group 1: Industry Background - The narrative of China's innovative drug industry has evolved dramatically from a low starting point, with a focus on the systemic operational models of leading companies [2][6]. - The shift from pursuing "Chinese new" to "global new" in innovative drugs began around 2018, emphasizing the need for global competitiveness [28][29]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment framework developed by the fund manager emphasizes the importance of selecting companies that can achieve global competitiveness, focusing on speed, optimization, and innovation [6][30]. - The ideal investment stage is identified as clinical phase II, where early data signals can provide opportunities for entry [9][34]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market performance of innovative drugs is attributed to two main factors: enhanced recognition of their technological attributes and a more stable policy environment [55][57]. - The article notes that the number of global INDs and clinical trials from China has significantly increased, indicating a robust supply side [63]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the innovative drug sector is at a critical turning point, with international interest in Chinese innovative drug assets growing [65][66]. - The potential for growth in the innovative drug market remains substantial, particularly as companies begin to achieve revenue and profit growth [60][61].

2025.07. 06 本文字数：5463，阅读时长大约9分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 伴随着国产GLP-1减重药玛仕度肽（商品名：信尔美）的商业化落地，国内减重药市场格局迎来了 新的变化。全球两大减重药巨头诺和诺德与礼来在中国市场将面临更激烈的竞争环境，减重药未来价 格是否会出现松动也引发关注。 减重药市场迎来"新玩家" 7月3日，信达生物的GLP-1减重创新药玛仕度肽"首方"落地。北京大学人民医院分泌科主任医师纪 立农教授为一名超重合并脂肪肝的患者开出全国首张处方，标志着玛仕度肽正式进入国内公立医院。 这距离该药物获批仅一周之隔。下周起，该药物将陆续进入全国各大公立医院。 相比之下，诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽减重适应症（商品名：诺和盈）从获批到正式商业化开出公立医 院"首方"历时近5个月；礼来的替尔泊肽减重适应症从获批到上市也经历了近半年时间。 "国内厂商没有产能供应限制的问题。"一位业内人士对第一财经记者。另据记者了解，直到目前为 止，司美格鲁肽与替尔泊肽均尚未在国内实现本土化生产。 在信达生物此前召开的产品上市发布会上，信达生物首席财务官由飞表示，对于玛仕度肽的市场潜 力，公司非常有信心。在渠道拓展方面 ...

今年1月，公司核心品种依苏帕格鲁肽α获批上市，用于治疗二型糖尿病。银诺医药也由此结束了自成立以来连续10年零收入的状态。 作为亚洲第一家及全球第三家将原研人源长效胰高血糖素样肽-1(GLP-1)受体激动剂推进到注册审批阶段的公司，银诺医药在IPO前受到了不少投资人关注。 自成立以来，公司已完成多轮融资，投资方包括KIP、同创伟业、中金资本等。去年1月，公司在完成B+轮融资后的估值达到46.5亿元。 核心品种技术路径的差异化创新 GLP-1受体激动剂作为当前代谢性疾病治疗领域的革命性药物，其创新开发策略正围绕疗效提升、依从性优化、适应症拓展及技术突破四大核心方向展开。 从技术路径角度创新来看，主要分为给药创新和长效化创新，银诺医药的依苏帕格鲁肽α便属于后者。 据智通财经APP了解，近年来在GLP-1受体激动剂技术路径创新层面，多数药企都选择了口服小分子药物形式，其优势在于，相较于注射型多肽药物，口服 小分子能够大幅提升患者依从性，降低使用门槛。例如，礼来的Orforglipron和辉瑞的Danuglipron，在国内恒瑞医药、华东医药等也在积极布局GLP-1的口服 小分子给药药物，当前这一技术作为全球主流技术路 ...

Global Healthcare Biopharma catalysts to watch in 3Q25 With macroeconomic volatility and healthcare policy uncertainty persisting likely into the back half of the year, we continue to advocate for and highlight idiosyncratic catalysts with attractive risk/reward setups to drive alpha generation. Herein, we highlight and preview key catalysts in 3Q25 across the GS biotechnology coverage universe from pivotal studies: BMY's Cobenfy ADEPT-2 in Alzheimer's disease psychosis; LLY's orforglipron ATTAIN-1 in obesi ...

GLP-1 agonists, a type of drug used to treat diabetes and weight loss, could be the hottest growth story in healthcare today. Experts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the market could grow to a $150 billion opportunity over the next decade, representing a tenfold increase from its sales last year. Eli Lilly (LLY -0.40%) has captured approximately 35% of the GLP-1 market, alongside arch-rival Novo Nordisk, the current market leader at 65%. However, Eli Lilly could gain on, perhaps even surpass, its rival over ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 2025ADA 重磅数据披露，关注减脂增肌、 Amylin 及口服赛道 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 06 月 29 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 2024/7/1 2024/10/29 2025/2/26 2025/6/26 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《科研服务拐点已至，关注皓元医药、 毕得医药、百奥赛图等》 2025-06-23 《线上 618 大促收官+国补持续，关注 国产家用医疗器械放量机遇》 2025-06-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 27 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为 1.6%、6.2%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为-0.4%、6.6%；本周、年初至今 H 股生物科技指数涨 跌幅分别为 2.7%、52.7%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢-1.5%、32.2%； 本周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of multiple promising weight loss drugs showcased at the 2025 ADA conference, focusing on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which exhibit excellent clinical data and are expected to become core targets for future weight loss drug development [6][15] - The report emphasizes the potential of oral and ultra-long-acting drugs in the weight loss and glycemic control market, which are anticipated to open new incremental market opportunities [8][31] - The report recommends several pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies as investment targets, including Heng Rui Medicine, East China Medicine, and others across various segments such as CXO, research services, traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical devices, and retail pharmacies [9] Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Drug Developments - The 2025 ADA conference showcased several potential pipeline drugs for weight loss, with a focus on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which are expected to lead future developments in this area [15] - AMYR-targeted drugs, such as eloralintide from Eli Lilly, demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to GLP-1 drugs, indicating a promising future for this class of drugs [16][18] - ActRII-targeted drugs, particularly Bimagrumab, showed significant weight loss results, with 100% of weight loss coming from fat, suggesting a new standard for high-quality weight loss therapies [28][29] 2. Oral and Ultra-Long-Acting Drugs - The report identifies oral GLP-1RA drugs as a new trend in the weight loss and glycemic control market, with several companies presenting promising clinical data at the 2025 ADA conference [31][32] - The ultra-long-acting drug Maridebart cafraglutide demonstrated effective weight loss results with extended dosing intervals, enhancing patient compliance and treatment simplicity [33][34] 3. Recommended Investment Targets - The report lists various companies across different segments as recommended investment targets, including pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms, CXO companies, research service providers, traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers, raw material suppliers, medical device companies, and retail pharmacies [9]

Core Insights - The weight management medicines market is experiencing significant growth, with Eli Lilly positioned to dominate through the end of the decade due to its strong pipeline and clinical successes [1][9] - Eli Lilly's primary competitor in this space is Novo Nordisk, with both companies having deep pipelines and successful products [2][4] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown superior efficacy compared to Novo Nordisk's semaglutide in clinical trials [5] - Novo Nordisk's next-generation medicine, CagriSema, achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, falling short of its 25% target, which may hinder its commercial success [6][5] - Eli Lilly has additional promising candidates, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which could further enhance its competitive edge [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Eli Lilly is partnering with Camurus to utilize FluidCrystal technology for long-acting delivery of injectable therapies, addressing the issue of weight regain after discontinuation of medications [8] Group 3: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a 45% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.7 billion and a 29% increase in net income to $3 billion in the first quarter [11] - Despite a higher forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.3 compared to the healthcare industry's average of 15.9, Eli Lilly's growth justifies the premium [11] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Eli Lilly is not solely focused on diabetes or weight loss, as it has also developed breakthrough medicines in other therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer's disease [10] - The company's strong financial results and promising pipeline make its stock an attractive long-term investment [12]