Key Takeaways AG recorded 7.9M AgEq ounces in Q2, up 48% year over year on stronger silver and gold production. The Cerro Los Gatos mine, acquired via the Gatos Silver deal, added 1.5M silver ounces to Q2 output. AG raised its 2025 production outlook to 30.6-32.6M AgEq ounces from 27.8-31.2M.First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) scaled a new 52-week high of $9.48 yesterday before ending the session at $9.15. The upside comes following the news of strong silver-equivalent (AgEq) production in the second quarter ...

Gold gained, bolstered by haven demand as traders weighed fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump https://t.co/7ZAIgy2SYc ...

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Core Insights - Pan American Silver (PAAS) and First Majestic Silver (AG) are prominent players in the silver mining sector, both headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and providing exposure to silver and gold [1][2] - Silver prices have increased by 28% and gold prices by 29% this year, driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply deficits [1] - The silver market is projected to face another deficit in 2025, which is expected to positively impact prices [1] Company Overview: Pan American Silver - Pan American Silver is a leading silver and gold producer in the Americas, operating 12 mines across several countries [3] - As of June 30, 2024, Pan American's mineral reserves included 468 million ounces of silver and 6.7 million ounces of gold, with an expected increase of 58 million ounces from the acquisition of MAG Silver Corp. [4][5] - The company reported a 28.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $773 million in Q1, with record mine operating earnings of $250.8 million [6][10] - Silver production was 5 million ounces in Q1, with expectations to meet 2025 guidance of 20-21 million ounces of silver [8][9] Company Overview: First Majestic Silver - First Majestic Silver focuses on silver and gold production primarily in Mexico and the U.S., operating four underground mines [13] - Proven and probable mineral reserves are estimated at 86.8 million ounces of silver and 594,000 ounces of gold as of December 31, 2024 [14] - The company achieved a 130% increase in Q1 revenues to $243.9 million, driven by the Cerro Los Gatos Silver Mine and higher silver prices [16][10] - Total production reached 7.7 million silver-equivalent ounces in Q1, marking a 49% year-over-year increase [15] Financial Performance Comparison - Pan American's adjusted earnings per share for 2025 are estimated at $1.47, reflecting an 86.1% year-over-year growth [21] - First Majestic's earnings estimate for 2025 is 12 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 14 cents in 2024 [22] - PAAS stock has increased by 40% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 18.5%, while AG has gained 30.7% [23] Valuation and Market Position - Pan American is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 3.39X, below the industry average of 4.06X, while AG trades at 4.48X [25] - Pan American offers a dividend yield of 1.38%, significantly higher than First Majestic's 0.22% [27] - The average price target for Pan American suggests a 9% increase, while First Majestic's average price target implies a 2% decline [28] Investment Outlook - Both companies are positioned to benefit from rising silver and gold prices, with strong production expectations and expansion efforts [29] - Pan American has shown better performance in share price gains and dividend yield, along with positive earnings estimate revisions [30] - With a more attractive valuation and higher growth potential, Pan American Silver is viewed as a more compelling investment choice compared to First Majestic [33]

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 22% over the past three months, driven by rising gold prices amid trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly due to the Israel-Iran conflict [1][7]. Performance Comparison - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 17% rise and the S&P 500's increase of 5.7% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have gained 9.6%, 16.4%, and 26% respectively during the same period [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. Financial Strength - Newmont generated a record $1.2 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2025, showcasing solid financial strength [7]. - The company has a liquidity position of $8.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.7 billion [13]. - Operating cash flow from continuing operations increased by roughly 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion in Q1 2025 [13]. Growth Projects and Acquisitions - Newmont is pursuing several growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile, expected to deliver significant shareholder value and synergies of $500 million annually [11]. Divestitures - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of approximately $2.55 billion from various sales [12]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by roughly 29% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases [14][16]. - Currently, gold prices are hovering near $3,400 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [16]. Dividend and Earnings Estimates - NEM offers a dividend yield of 1.7% with a payout ratio of 24%, indicating a sustainable dividend [17]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised higher, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting a year-over-year growth of 20.1% [18]. Valuation - NEM stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.21X, which is about 7% lower than the industry average of 14.21X [20]. Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, strong performance of Tier 1 assets, and solid financial health, making it a prudent choice for investors [23].

17 June 2025 | 10:34PM BST Precious Comment: Survey Shows Continued Central Bank Gold Appetite; Speculative Positioning Remains Muted Lina Thomas +44(20)7051-3062 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs International n Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, gold prices traded near all-time highs earlier this week. Despite increased safe-haven demand, speculative gold positioning remains unusually low given the macro uncertainty. This hesitancy likely stems from investors believing they missed the initial r ...

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has experienced a significant share price increase of 62.3% over the past three months, outperforming both the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, driven by rising gold prices and strong operational performance [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ARMN shares have outperformed its peers, with B2Gold Corp. (BTG) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) gaining 37% and 44.5%, respectively, during the same period [1]. - Technical indicators show ARMN stock surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 4, 2025, and is currently trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5][7]. Group 2: Production and Growth Prospects - ARMN reported an 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for the first quarter, positioning the company to meet its full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces [10]. - The Segovia Operations in Colombia are a key contributor to ARMN's production, with ongoing expansion projects expected to enhance production rates significantly [11][12]. - ARMN aims for an annual production rate of approximately 500,000 ounces of gold following the commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion [12]. Group 3: Financial Health - ARMN ended the first quarter with a cash balance of $240 million and generated $40 million in cash flow, supporting its strategic growth initiatives [17]. - The company has successfully raised over $19.4 million from the exercise of in-the-money warrants, further strengthening its balance sheet for future investments [17]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - ARMN is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 4.44X, representing a 67% discount compared to the industry average of 13.49X [18]. - Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward, with projected year-over-year increases of 226.5% and 80.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [21].

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are significant players in the gold mining industry, with global operations and diversified portfolios. Gold prices, while down from April 2025 highs, remain favorable due to safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, currently above $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 28% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies, global trade tensions, and central bank accumulation of gold reserves. Prices peaked at $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, amid calls for interest rate cuts [3]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and creating a multi-decade production profile [6]. - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion, which includes $1.7 billion from three assets sold in March 2025 and $850 million from additional sales [7]. - The company reported liquidity of $8.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with operating cash flow increasing 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion [8]. - Newmont returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1 billion since the beginning of 2025, maintaining a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 20% [10]. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance production and cash flow [11]. - Tasiast and Paracatu are the main contributors to Kinross's cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [12]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 66.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 54.4% [15]. - NEM trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.59, approximately 10% below the industry average of 14X, while KGC trades at a premium with a multiple of 13.37 [18][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 2% and 20.1%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 15.3% and 63.2% [21][24]. Investment Considerations - Both Newmont and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its valuation and higher dividend yield [25].

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation's stock has shown bullish momentum, breaking above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and gaining approximately 6% in a week due to rising gold prices driven by trade and geopolitical tensions [1][8] - The stock is also trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend, with a golden crossover occurring on April 9, 2025 [2] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Barrick's shares have increased by 20.3%, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 52.6% rise but outperforming the S&P 500's 10.8% increase [5] - Compared to peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 34.6%, 97%, and 85.3%, respectively [5][6] Production and Projects - Key projects such as Goldrush and Lumwana are progressing on schedule and within budget, which is expected to enhance long-term output [8][11] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually starting in 2028 [12][13] Financial Performance - Barrick's liquidity is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.1 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 59% increase year over year [17] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with a healthy dividend yield of 2% and a payout ratio of 28% [18] Cost Challenges - Barrick faces rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year over year, respectively [19] - For 2025, total cash costs are projected to be between $1,050-$1,130 per ounce, and AISC is expected to range from $1,460-$1,560 per ounce, indicating a year-over-year increase [19][20] Production Outlook - The company forecasts attributable gold production for 2025 to be between 3.15-3.5 million ounces, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to reduced output from certain mines [20] - Total gold production fell roughly 19% year over year to 758,000 ounces in Q1 2025 [20] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 being adjusted higher [21] Valuation - Barrick's stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 10.67X, which is about 23.6% lower than the industry's average of 13.97X, indicating an attractive valuation [21] Investment Recommendation - The combination of production growth initiatives, strong financial health, rising earnings estimates, and a safe dividend yield suggests a positive outlook for Barrick, although caution is warranted due to high costs and a subdued production forecast [22]

Company Overview - Kinross Gold is a senior gold mining company with a diverse portfolio of mines located in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mauritania, and Canada, focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, and strategic asset optimization [2] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 60 days, four analysts have increased their earnings estimates for Kinross Gold for both the current year and the next year, indicating positive revision activity [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 has risen to $1.04 from $0.77 just two months ago, while next year's estimate increased from $0.80 to $1.16 [3][4] Growth Projections - Current year EPS growth is projected at 52.94%, with next year expected to grow another 12.3% to $1.16 [4] Macro Environment - Gold prices are reaching record highs, driven by both short-term safe-haven demand and longer-term trends, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will act soon, leading to a weaker dollar and lower real yields, which are favorable for gold prices [5] Cost Structure - Kinross Gold's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are trending toward the lower end of its peer group, positioning the company to benefit significantly from any increase in gold prices [6] - If gold prices remain above $2,300 per ounce, Kinross is expected to be not just profitable but highly profitable [6]