Ac t i o n | 07 Jan 2026 13:19:54 ET │ 15 pages Leader Drive (688017.SS) A Key Beneficiary of Humanoid Robot and Physical AI Era; Raise TP to Rmb233 CITI'S TAKE With NVIDIA (NVDA.O) demonstrating at CES 2026 again how its open- source platforms (e.g., Omniverse, Issac Sim, Cosmos) can help train robots in physically based virtual environments, we are more confident that humanoid robots' mass production and commercialization are around the corner, echoing mgmt.'s recent comment that Leader Drive's (LD) human ...

今天上证指数顽强收出9连阳，表面是风光了。但盘面却给出三个降温信号：商业航天高位分化，电池、资源等前期强势品种集体修复， 强股不再带指数，而是各走各路。 这不是见顶，而是一个典型信号：边际买盘，变犹豫了。 市场今天最被忽略的数据是两点：人民币升值节奏放缓，港股高开低走，恒指收中阴。 港股最懂外资。它先踩刹车，往往意味着年底外资加仓开始算细账了。 再叠加 A500 ETF 持续被盯着，部分资金出现明显的怕曝光、慢出手。 （本图表仅为历史案例展示与教学之用，并非未来走势信号，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 拓维信息(研究案例，非投资建议)，今天主要还是消息面刺激，12月27号的消息，华为韩国公司宣布，将于明年在韩国市场正式推出其最 新的人工智能芯片昇腾950，并以此为基础，全面进军韩国A基础设施市场。 结论很清楚：不是没钱，是不急。这意味着动量资金必须集中火力。 于是你会看到：商业航天因IPO政策刺激被反复拥挤，AI板块反而显得不那么亮眼，热门方向开始你进我出、宽幅震荡。 这不是趋势结束，而是超买之后的筹码大换手。 很多人在今天开始慌：是不是要见顶了？但短线冲劲减弱，反而更健康。因为核心筹码并没有松动：AI，人形机 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for robotics, particularly for leading AI companies as they enhance their AI hardware and software product matrices, with nearly all enterprises investing in humanoid robot technology development [1] Group 1: AI Company Developments - Major tech companies are developing comprehensive AI hardware and software ecosystems, indicating a shift towards robotics and AI integration in both industrial and domestic settings [3] - Companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI are making significant strides in AI technology stacks, aiming to increase revenue and reduce costs through better control over AI training servers [3][4] - Meta has expanded its lead in AI devices but lags in AI model development, while xAI has made progress in LLM quality and consumer AI applications [6][12] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition among major AI companies is intensifying, with a complex network of alliances forming as companies seek to reduce dependency on key suppliers like Nvidia and Microsoft [4][19] - Google remains a dominant player, significantly enhancing its capabilities in AI server chips, evidenced by a $20 billion deal with Anthropic for tensor processing units [10] - OpenAI is expanding its cloud partnerships beyond Microsoft, with Amazon signing a $38 billion server deal and plans for collaboration on e-commerce projects [21] Group 3: Emerging Technologies - Companies are focusing on humanoid robots and wearable AI devices, with Amazon making substantial investments in augmented reality glasses [7][14] - Tesla is leading in humanoid robotics with its Optimus robot, despite facing challenges with its functionality [15] - The development of AI applications and devices is expected to continue evolving, with OpenAI planning to launch various wearable AI products by 2026 [14]

报告导读： 国内商业航天IPO指引推出，商业航天与人形机器人共构宏大叙事。 投资建议 ： 重点关注机器人整机厂商及机器人核心零部件供应商， 包括： 1 ）执行器和电机； 2 ）减速器； 3 ）丝杠类； 4 ）丝杠设备类； 5 ）轴承； 6 ）传感器； 7 ）整机。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注 册的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国 泰海通证券研究所官方订阅号 本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台 本订阅号所载内容均来 国内商业航天 IPO 指引推出，长八甲火箭六站六捷。 1 ） 12 月 26 日，上交所发布《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第 9 号——商业火箭企 业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，支持正处于大规模商业化关键时期的商业火箭企业； 2 ） 12 月 26 日，由火箭院研制的长征八号甲运载火箭（简称"长八 甲火箭"）在海南商业航天发射场一号工位点火升空，发 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3] - Skild AI, a US-based robotics company valued at $14 billion, has adopted a Chinese company's advanced dexterous hand technology, marking a significant entry of Chinese components into the global humanoid robot supply chain [5] - Ant Group has upgraded its AI health application AQ to "Antifufu," focusing on a "health+" strategy with new features for health companionship, inquiries, and services [6] Group 2 - SenseTime has launched the Seko 2.0, the first multi-episode generative AI agent, showcasing significant advantages in consistency for multi-episode video generation [7][8] - NVIDIA has acquired SchedMD, a leading developer of open-source workload management systems for high-performance computing and AI, planning to continue the development of the Slurm software [10] - NVIDIA has introduced the Nemotron 3 open model family, aimed at providing an efficient platform for building agent-based AI applications, with the first model already available and larger models expected in 2026 [11]

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson has piled fresh skepticism onto Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) humanoid robot ambitions, likening Optimus to decades-old animatronics and predicting zero commercial sales in 2026.Analyst Slams Tesla's Humanoid Robot ClaimsOn Monday, Johnson shared criticism on X after reposting comments from The Dawn Project founder Dan O'Dowd, who attended a recent Tesla event featuring Optimus serving popcorn.Johnson said Tesla's robot resembled 1980s Chuck E. Cheese "animatronics-level tec ...

Market Review - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010) showed strong performance, rising 2.26% and breaking through intraday moving average resistance, with significant gains in stocks like Hehe Information, which surged over 13% [1] - The Robot ETF (562500) experienced a mild recovery, closing up 0.52% at 0.960 yuan, with notable performances from stocks such as Yuntian Lifa, which rose nearly 7%, and other leading companies in the sector [1] - Overall trading activity remained active, with a total transaction volume of nearly 890 million yuan for the AI ETF and approaching 700 million yuan for the Robot ETF, indicating strong market engagement [1] Hot News - Yushu Technology announced the launch of a humanoid robot App Store, featuring user-generated content and preset actions, enhancing user interaction and functionality [2] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area AI and Robotics Industry Conference revealed that by November 2025, there will be over 3,700 AI and robotics companies in Guangdong, with a core industry scale projected at 220 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 22% [2] - Green's Harmony CTO disclosed rapid advancements in humanoid robot joint technology, with market demand exceeding expectations and a rise in customized requests for multi-scenario functionalities [3] Institutional Views - Guojin Securities highlighted a dual acceleration in the embodied intelligence and humanoid robot industry in China, focusing on "technology implementation + ecosystem expansion" [4] - Companies like Zhongpan Robotics have launched humanoid robots starting at 180,000 yuan, marking a breakthrough in commercial pricing, while other firms are enhancing their supply chains and production capabilities [4] - Collaborations between companies such as Zengcao Travel and Yuesao Technology are integrating robotic technology into Robotaxi scenarios, indicating a trend towards ecosystem expansion [4] Popular ETFs - The Robot ETF (562500) is the only fund in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, offering the best liquidity and comprehensive coverage of the Chinese robotics industry [5] - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010) is positioned as the brain of robotics, capturing the "singularity moment" in the AI industry with a 20% price fluctuation range and flexibility in small and mid-cap stocks [5]

Our key takeaways from the virtual tour are: 14 December 2025 | 9:55PM HKT Equity Research CHINA HUMANOID ROBOT Takeaways from Dexterous Hand Ecosystem Virtual Tour: Data, lifespan, thermal problems still require time, while cost less of an issue with scale As the humanoid robot industry has made significant strides in dynamic walking and interactive capabilities in 2025, human-level dexterity has been the central challenge. To delve into the various aspects of dexterous hand technology progress, we invited ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "overweight" to "equal-weight," citing that high expectations have brought the stock closer to fair valuation despite Tesla's leadership in electric vehicles and renewable energy [1][4] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Tesla shares fell 4% to around $437 following the downgrade, with the stock gaining less than 10% in 2025 and down 10% from its record high set about a year ago [1][4] Analyst Ratings - Wall Street analysts are divided on Tesla, with six "buy," four "hold," and three "sell" ratings among 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha [3] Business Segments Valuation - Analysts provided valuations for Tesla's business segments: - EV business: $55 per share, down from $75, due to increased competition from Chinese EV brands and uncertain U.S. adoption [5] - Network services: $145 per share, expected to grow with improvements in self-driving software [5] - Energy: $40 per share, driven by demand for home energy storage and renewable energy [5] - Mobility: $125 per share, with an estimate of 30,000 robotaxis on the road by 2030 [5] - Humanoids: $60 per share, with potential leadership in the humanoid robot market due to existing manufacturing capabilities [5] Future Outlook - Analysts expect Tesla to achieve seven out of twelve milestones in CEO Elon Musk's pay package, including vehicle and robotaxi milestones, but only three out of six profitability targets [3]

Summary of Leader Drive (688017.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Leader Drive (LD) - **Industry**: Robotics and Automation - **Specialization**: Production and sale of precision reducers, including harmonic reducers and mechatronic actuators for various sectors such as industrial robots, service robots, CNC machine tools, aerospace, and medical equipment [doc id='19'][doc id='20']. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Earnings Forecasts**: 2025/26E earnings forecasts raised by 10%/18% respectively, with a target price (TP) increase of approximately 7% to Rmb187.0 [doc id='1'][doc id='3']. - **Net Profit Growth**: Expected net profit for 4Q25E to increase by 11 times YoY to Rmb26 million from a net loss of Rmb3 million in 4Q24 [doc id='1']. - **Revenue Projections**: Anticipated revenue growth of 49% YoY to Rmb166 million in 4Q25E, driven by increased shipments of humanoid and industrial robots [doc id='1']. Product and Market Insights - **Humanoid Robot Growth**: Humanoid robot product shipments expected to grow exponentially in 2026, potentially accounting for ~40% of total revenue by 2026E [doc id='2']. - **Industrial Robot Shipments**: Projected growth of 20%-30% YoY in industrial robot shipments due to continuous market share gains [doc id='1']. - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Harmonic reducer capacity expanded from 30k/month to 40k/month, with plans to reach 80k/month by the end of 2025 [doc id='2']. Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Insights - **GPM Stability**: GPM expected to remain around 40% with potential upside due to improved economies of scale [doc id='1']. - **GPM Projections**: Gross profit margin forecasted to improve from 37.6% in 2025E to 40.7% in 2026E [doc id='9']. Valuation Metrics - **Valuation**: New TP of Rmb187 based on a P/E ratio of 281x for 2025E, reflecting strong earnings recovery and increased exposure to humanoid robots [doc id='3'][doc id='21']. - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap stands at Rmb26.64 billion (approximately US$3.77 billion) [doc id='5']. Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include slower growth in the automation market, increased competition, higher raw material costs, and lower contributions from humanoid robots [doc id='22']. Comparative Analysis - **Peer Comparison**: Preference for Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) over LD due to lower valuation, which may offer more room for rerating in the humanoid robot sector [doc id='3']. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy**: A Buy rating is maintained for Leader Drive, with expectations of a stronger-than-expected business recovery and rising contributions from mechatronic and humanoid robot products [doc id='20']. - **Quarterly Performance**: 4Q24 net sales were Rmb111 million, with projections for 4Q25E to reach Rmb166 million, indicating significant growth [doc id='9']. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Leader Drive's financial outlook, product growth, market positioning, and associated risks.