Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry appears to be thriving with reported profits of 460 billion RMB in the first three quarters of the year, but a deeper analysis reveals a concerning decline in net assets under the CGAAP standards, indicating underlying financial pressures [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Net Assets under CGAAP - Despite a reported increase of 222 billion RMB in net assets for companies that disclosed third-quarter results, most life insurance companies experienced a decline in net assets under the old CGAAP standards, primarily due to rising long-term interest rates and poor performance in equity investments [2][3]. - The average return of high-dividend stocks, heavily weighted in the life insurance sector, fell significantly, with only a few companies outperforming the 18% return of the CSI 300 index in the third quarter [2][3]. 2. Implementation of New Accounting Standards (IFRS 17) - Several established life insurance companies have adopted the IFRS 17 accounting standards, leading to higher reported profits compared to the old CGAAP standards. This shift has resulted in changes in liability assessment curves that positively impact comprehensive income [3][4]. - The transition to IFRS 17 allows for the exclusion of certain losses from financial statements, enhancing the reported profitability of companies that have adopted the new standards [4][5]. 3. Net Asset Operational Changes - The operational change in net assets for the life insurance sector was negative 99 million RMB, with only 20 companies reporting positive growth. The "old seven" companies saw a 4% increase, while foreign and small domestic companies experienced declines of 16% and 11%, respectively [10][11]. - The banking-affiliated companies faced the most significant decline in net assets, with a drop of 24%, attributed to their high leverage ratios and the reclassification of HTM assets to AFS [11][12]. 4. Factors Influencing Net Asset Changes - The average yield curve for interest rates increased by 25 basis points, leading to a decline in the market value of existing AFS bonds, estimated to be a loss of 200 to 300 billion RMB for the industry [14][15]. - If the asset and liability assessment curves had remained unchanged, the net assets of the companies could have increased by 500 to 600 billion RMB, primarily driven by excess returns from equity investments [15][16]. 5. Future Implications of IFRS 17 - Starting in 2026, all insurance companies in China will implement IFRS 17, which is expected to provide better alignment between asset and liability assessment curves, potentially offering a protective effect on net assets, especially for traditional insurance products [19][21]. - The focus on duration matching will become increasingly important under the new standards, as it will significantly influence the net assets and solvency of companies in the future [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulatory framework in China's insurance industry, focusing on the concept of future policy surplus as a key indicator of a company's future profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Future Policy Surplus - The future policy surplus is introduced under the second phase of solvency regulations and is crucial for assessing a company's future profitability [1]. - The future policy surplus is defined as the difference between accounting reserves and solvency reserves, adjusted for potential tax provisions and cash value guarantees [2]. - As of 2024, the future policy surplus for 66 insurance companies is projected to be 2.26 trillion, accounting for 8.8% of total assets, a decrease of approximately 150 billion from the end of 2022 [14]. Group 2: Impact of Accounting Standards - Starting in 2023, insurance companies began implementing the new accounting standard IFRS 17, which affects how insurance reserves are reported [3]. - The article highlights the importance of consistency in reporting deferred tax liabilities (DTL) and actual capital across different accounting standards [7][8]. - Companies that do not maintain consistency in their reporting may face challenges in validating their solvency reports [9]. Group 3: Analysis of Companies - The article provides a detailed analysis of various insurance companies, noting that the future policy surplus varies significantly among them, with some companies like AIA Life exceeding 15% of total assets [14]. - The article identifies that companies with a high proportion of participating insurance products tend to have lower future policy surplus compared to traditional insurance products [16]. - The future policy surplus for major players like China Life and Ping An has shown a noticeable decline, attributed to their historical focus on participating insurance products [15]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Future Policy Surplus - The decline in future policy surplus can be attributed to several factors, including a high proportion of participating insurance, adjustments in risk premiums, and changes in actuarial assumptions [19]. - Conversely, an increase in future policy surplus may result from a lower proportion of participating insurance and the successful generation of new business [19][22]. - The article emphasizes that the future policy surplus is a critical indicator but does not fully reflect a company's overall asset-liability management (ALM) status [16].