中国人寿 20151223 摘要 中国人寿 2025 年开门红进展符合预期，预收预录表现良好，预计一季 度业绩积极。公司坚持多元化产品策略，积极推动浮动收益型产品转型， 旨在提升新单业务表现。预计 2026 年新单保费和信用价值将受益于 2025 年初的低基数效应。 中国人寿预计代理人数量保持稳定，个险渠道逐步恢复，质态数据稳步 提升。公司深化报行合一政策，通过佣金和费用递延，对代理人收入影 响有限，对产品盈利性变化不大。个险渠道仍是核心渠道，对保费、价 值及产品结构转型有重要贡献。 中国人寿将银保渠道定位为战略支撑，积极推动银保发展，预计 2026 年定存到期规模较大，银保发展空间广阔。公司积极探索与银行深度合 作，建立稳定合作关系和运营模式，与广发银行的合作已取得试点效应。 中国人寿 2025 年积极调整产品结构，推出分红险，预计 2026 年分红 险占比将进一步提高，但仍坚持多元化产品策略。分红险具有利率风险 共享功能，有效久期可能略短于传统增额寿险，但盈利性不显著低于传 统增额寿险。 Q&A 中国人寿在 2025 年开门红的准备情况如何？对 2026 年一季度的销售有何展 望？ 中国人寿一直以来都非常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulatory framework in China's insurance industry, focusing on the concept of future policy surplus as a key indicator of a company's future profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Future Policy Surplus - The future policy surplus is introduced under the second phase of solvency regulations and is crucial for assessing a company's future profitability [1]. - The future policy surplus is defined as the difference between accounting reserves and solvency reserves, adjusted for potential tax provisions and cash value guarantees [2]. - As of 2024, the future policy surplus for 66 insurance companies is projected to be 2.26 trillion, accounting for 8.8% of total assets, a decrease of approximately 150 billion from the end of 2022 [14]. Group 2: Impact of Accounting Standards - Starting in 2023, insurance companies began implementing the new accounting standard IFRS 17, which affects how insurance reserves are reported [3]. - The article highlights the importance of consistency in reporting deferred tax liabilities (DTL) and actual capital across different accounting standards [7][8]. - Companies that do not maintain consistency in their reporting may face challenges in validating their solvency reports [9]. Group 3: Analysis of Companies - The article provides a detailed analysis of various insurance companies, noting that the future policy surplus varies significantly among them, with some companies like AIA Life exceeding 15% of total assets [14]. - The article identifies that companies with a high proportion of participating insurance products tend to have lower future policy surplus compared to traditional insurance products [16]. - The future policy surplus for major players like China Life and Ping An has shown a noticeable decline, attributed to their historical focus on participating insurance products [15]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Future Policy Surplus - The decline in future policy surplus can be attributed to several factors, including a high proportion of participating insurance, adjustments in risk premiums, and changes in actuarial assumptions [19]. - Conversely, an increase in future policy surplus may result from a lower proportion of participating insurance and the successful generation of new business [19][22]. - The article emphasizes that the future policy surplus is a critical indicator but does not fully reflect a company's overall asset-liability management (ALM) status [16].