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兴森科技(002436):BT载板盈利或将改善
HTSC· 2025-04-27 08:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 15.00 [7][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.8 billion for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 9%. However, it faced a net loss of RMB 200 million due to high costs associated with the ABF substrate project and underperformance of the BT substrate factory [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.58 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 17.2%, slightly improving from the previous quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights that the demand for domestic IC substrates has increased due to tariff conflicts, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 5.8 billion and a gross margin of 15.9%, down 7.4 percentage points year-over-year. The net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB 200 million [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of RMB 1.58 billion and a net profit of RMB 9 million, although this was a 62% decline year-over-year [2][3]. 2025 Outlook - The company plans to focus on new products and customer integration for ABF substrates, expecting a revenue contribution of RMB 58 million in 2025. The BT substrate segment is anticipated to improve profitability, with projected revenue of RMB 1.3 billion [3][4]. - The report indicates that the company is experiencing a ramp-up in production capacity, particularly in its Guangzhou and Zhuhai factories, which is expected to enhance profitability in the BT substrate segment [3][4]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price was raised to RMB 15.00, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the company's IC substrate business amid increased domestic demand. The valuation multiples for PCB and semiconductor businesses were adjusted to 25.0x PE and 8.0x PS, respectively [4][15]. - The report also notes a downward revision of net profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing adjustments in the PCB business and high initial costs for new ABF substrate lines [4][12].